nickgrillo
EF5
I'd think that there should be some concern for convective debries/low-level cloud cover associated with the ongoing MCS across western OK, but if enough instability can develop tomorrow - the threat for a few supercells across central/eastern OK appears to be pretty good. Ahead of the trough, a strong >40kt southwesterly LLJ will enter the region. Deep moisture advection associated with the strong southwesterly low-level flow and any potential insolation will aid to boundary layer destabilization. Thunderstorms initiating across central OK shortly after 21z may attain supercell characteristics before cells/anvils merge and activity attains more linear character shortly before/at sunset. Given the relatively strong directional/speed shear through the <3km layer, a tornado or two could be possible with initital storm formation, but large hail should be of the greatest concern... The threat should slowly become hail/wind as activity enters eastern OK by sunset. This is all based off of the possibility of we can get some insolation tomorrow afternoon. The MCS will certainly lay down some OFBs for tomorrow's stuff, which will certainly enhance low-level shear/surface moisture pooling -- to help aid a higher tornado threat.