10/08/04 FCST: MATTHEW (Gulf)

[Brett Adair]

Matthew is currently undergoing a convective burst near the center of circulation and seems to be getting its act together. Shear to the south is decreasing and outflow is becoming better organized. It looks as if its between a gradient with easterly winds to the south and westerlies to the north allowing for a tight area of symmetric pressure/convergence. I agree with the NHC at this time on the forecast track, but it could need to be shifted a little further eastward if shear increases north of the system.

 

[Brett Adair]

10 P.M. Discussion.....I don't really agree with this part.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE CONTINUED TO CHECK MATTHEW AND FOUND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 50 KNOTS. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ASYMMETRIC AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING BUT BECAUSE MATTHEW DOES NOT
HAVE COMPLETE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THE SHEAR COULD BE LESS
DETRIMENTAL. AT THIS TIME...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

I think it has rather nice tropical characteristics viewing scatt and Enhanced IR. NHC is thinking the shear will kick in still though...

 

[Thomas Loades]

By the sounds of it, it has. The latest NHC advisory says that Matthew is very poorly organized, the winds are at 40 mph, and some weakening is expected. You can hardly tell on the satellite images that it is a tropical system at all — it just looks like a cluster of thunderstorms.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Matthew: The Last One??

Anybody want to venture a guess as to whether this TS Matthew may be the last named storm of the 2004 season?? Judging from the current Atlantic conditions and the lack of strength that Matthew is showing, I would say "It's Over. It's Finally Over". Florida can resume its lives and normal routines. And us poor stormchasers, after a brief October storm flurry, will be facing a long winter of SDS and discontent. Can't wait for that Storm Chaser IMAX movie to come out!! LJK. 8)

 

[Jeff Snyder]

With 50-70kts 250mb winds across the northwestern Gulf, there is NO way Matthew will do anything. I was wondering how it'd stay a TS yesterday, as all models developed tropical-storm-inhibiting winds to move across the northern Gulf...

 

[Brett Adair]

It's dead, but now we have Nicole coming SE of Bermuda right now. Tropical storm at 11 pm...but it looks more subtropical to some. IMO...it will be a quick lifespan, about the same as Matthew actually. I think it's nearing an end.