Model Ensembles have been consistent enough lately in advertising a significant low pressure system to eject NE out of the Four Corners Region... A strong arctic cold front will stall out somewhere in the Midwest and impulses of energy will tipple northward along the front.. Projected path and timing, as well as placement of the front, would begin to spread precipitation starting in the SW portion of the outlooked area around Thursday. Precip should fall as rain for about the first 36-48 hrs. Thereafter a period.. possibly an extended period of frozen precipitation may fall.. Most likely along and 20-30 miles either direction of a SLX through EAX line.. By Saturday Night low should be E/SE of the outlook area.. And the arctic air should be able to turn majority of the WA precip to all snow... With less confidence of a period of all snow with further southward extent.. Precip associated with the low.. and the wraparound.. apear to be lighter than suggested in the last model runs.. With PWAT' s hitting .40 - .50 max throughout the period... Main threats throughout the event could focus on heavy rain and flooding potential and then a freezing rain threat.. ATTM I could see minor accumulations.. but dont look for anything like what our poor friends in Denver, Co have seen lately.. Hopefully a couple more model runs can clear up freezing lines, and QPF..
Last edited by a moderator: