1/12 - 1/15 Midwest Winter Precip Event

[Brandon Sullivan]

Been watching the models for a good couple of days trying to get a grip on this one.. The cold air push continues to be drawn southward more and more each model run, about a 100 mile -+50 each run.. However H7 and H8 temp profiles show temps well above snow supporting temperature levels.. Also, slightly drier air tries to filter into the midwest before temps would support anything other than rain/freezing rain.. This one is a ways out. More model runs will help.. But somewhere in the midesction of the country could see a return to the winter season.. Also , with the frontal passage.. Most likely more seasonal temps to!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_850_wnd&hours=hr144hr156hr168hr180

If the 850 low was to track that direction that would be fairly similar to the last one. It's out there a long ways so no sense getting too specific. If another ice storm is going to happen, it would almost be best to just happen where it did this last time. May as well damage what is damaged, rather than say, 1-2 inches of ice in the KC metro area too.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_ptyp&hours=hr144hr156hr168hr180

 

[Jason McIntosh]

I've also taken note to the long range model runs over the past few days. I guess I'm anxious for our first real snowstorm in S WI. The Blizzard on Dec.1 just missed the Madison area, but the SE corner of WI got pounded. Never the less all of that snow has since melted away. Whether or not the model runs depict a huge snow/ice event for next weekend is hard to say. It does look as though a large scale change to a more typical winter pattern is finally underway for the US. Maybe kick up some nadoes for you chasers down south. The past few weeks have allready displayed some strong and unfortunately deadly tornadoes along the Gulf Coast states.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

only had time to glance at a couple models this morning.. but none the less. I still am looking for something nice out of this one.. Cold air is proggd to be further south with each model run.. In the way of snow accumulations.. IA IL MO would be my area of concern... However, I believe that ice problems will definitely be there as well.. To early for me to stick my neck out too far.. But the cold air intrusion on the lee side of the rockies is of course gonna play a HUGE factor in this one.. It is interesting to watch the effects of an EL nino year..

 

[Jay McCoy]

The last thing the southern plains needs is another snow/ice event. We are just now reaching areas of the oklahoma panhandle like Boise City that was buried and cut off last week.

Latest models have the cold air well south through the panhandles and the low setting up in southern Nevada friday night. Ofcourse track will change day to day but another significant snow event for the same areas looks likely. Farmers are still are having trouble reaching their cattle. They are having to be fed by helicopter drops of hay and if we get hit again we could lose thousands of heads (think Outback is expensive now just wait). I am not as worried about ice this time since we look to be 7-8 dregrees cooler than last time but some models do show it as all ice from amarillo through western and central Oklahoma. places like Woodward towards OKC missed the ice last time so this would be a whole new area of damage with many more trees than western kansas into the Tx panhandle. Hope power companies can keep up.

 

[Nick Parker]

I don't know about you all, but im looking at the rain we're going to get around here! The 12Z GFS shows a lovely setup with lots and lots of rain starting around noon Thursday and going till late Monday. (Something like 4-6 inches once its over.) Now, it does look like a posibility of the cold air getting in here late Sunday/Mon. morning and doing a flip-flop over to frozen precip. This system does have my attention. With temps. getting down to 10-15 degrees Tuesday morning, it will be interesting to see if we can get the cold air in here faster. I know we're all bitting our lips away waiting for the severe season to start, but i'd sure like to see just a little white before we let winter go.

Just have to see what the next few days shows us.

Nick

 

[Craig McPeck]

What do you guys think about Omaha Nebraska?

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

My personal opinion on Omaha, would be for minor accumulations.. Arctic push should overtake your area meaning most all of your precip should be snow.. however, if the models continue their southern bias and changing the spped of the system, it could change precip type and amounts.. So attm I would say primarily snow.. minor accums..


keep in mind im no meteorologist and am not responsible for forecast busts , just giving my opinion..

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Tonights model runs different from previous.. The system tonight appears to be dynamically weaker.. With less of a degree of wraparound precip.. To me.. this suggests shorter precip.. and the timing of the WA precip, would be rain/frexing rain. And this, snow accums would be light.. However central IA would be under the gun for the heavy accums.. Ill take a nice look tommorow... And get a better picture... But even if heavy snow/ice dont pan out.. still could see flooding concern in IL on already inflated rivers..

Brandon

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

well.. not much to add really.. models continue to show a threat of a potential major storm.. just trying to nail down QPF and temperature profiles...


when should a thread be started.. assuming models continue to show this system to the same degree? someone cam PM me and give me an idea of how far out we can start one..

 

[Jason McIntosh]

I'm still not going to throw out specifics on this storm system for Sat/Sun. It does look as though a weaker system will move through on the 12th and drop a few inches of snow over the IA/WI/MN tri-state area. The main event looks to be on Sat night/Sun time frame up here in S WI. The low looks to track from the panhandle of TX(0Z Sat)to IN(12Z Sun). Lots of moisture in this system too. SPC already has severe chances in the 4-8 outlook. The track has been leaning more south over the past few runs. I am anxious on the next GFS run at 3am tomorrow.

 

[rdale]

I am anxious on the next GFS run at 3am tomorrow.

Just curious what's special about 3am? I assume you're talking about the 06Z run (which starts at 1am EST) -- but why would you not be anxious to see the 18Z run coming out now or the 00Z run in 6 hours?

 

[Andrew Sorce]

The aformentioned ice event looks like it might effect the Eastern Great Lakes as well. Saturday Night (1/13) looks to have the potential for icing in upstate NY as that shallow layer of arctic area slides under the warm Southwesterlies. Our location will eventually turn over to all rain, but I'll be keeping my fingers crossed. Following that storm looks to be a relatively prolonged arctic outbreak, its about time!