Randy Jennings
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- Joined
- May 18, 2013
- Messages
- 768
An AFD issued on 10/30/2018 by NWS AJK (Juneau, AK) featured some Shakespeare and is making the rounds in the media now:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...s-week-goes-shakespeare-and-it-was-brilliant/
Here is the original AFD:
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
243 PM AKDT Tue Oct 30 2018
...
.LONG TERM..."I have done the deed," as Macbeth once nervously
proclaimed. As is customarily the case when one first reads "snow"
in the forecast, one can imagine the trepidation felt by a
forecaster at the first instance where said forecaster is
presented with this high profile conundrum. It is truly the stuff
of Shakespearean tragedy. Someone has to do it; it is Alaska and
the calendar doth say, "Consider it not so deeply."
But even after it is done, there is always thoughts of doubt, as
Lady Macbeth states, "I am afraid they have awaked and tis not
done." It may not be done, because the low on Thursday night comes
hither on a path more southerly that we originally thought, so
slaying each outlier model run as one bidst "God bless us," and
the other "Amen," has become a challenge indeed in such a
difficult pattern to get right. While earlier we speculated the low
to follow a northerly course across the north central Panhandle,
suggesting a warmer system, we are looking at possibly a much
more southerly track with areas north of Petersburg under the
influence of a cooler air mass. So while we have decreased pop,
yet not erased it, and lowered expected precipitation amounts
across the north, we have also cooled temperatures a bit more
boldy, therefore adding a chance of rain and, yes obligatorily,
snow for much of the northern Panhandle Thursday night through the
weekend.
"This is a sorry sight," rings the wisdom of Lady Macbeth. So
while we feel as if we needed to get the deed done, we also
acknowledge that much of this forecast averages solutions that
will likely span two bookended likelihoods of either a drier and
colder atmosphere whereby nothing falls from the sky, or else, a
more northerly track with a wetter and warmer atmosphere whereby
the only thing that does fall is in liquid form. And thus we risk
our messaging going haywire with our forecasts marked with magical
four-letter words beginning in `s.` Only we should stress the
preceding words--"chance of."
Not lost on the hyper focus of whether to introduce snow in the
north is the higher likelihood of beneficial rain across the
south with the greater likelihood of a southern Panhandle landfall
of the Thursday system.
Looking beyond, we see greater reason why the system progresses
more quickly and offers a drier forecast for Friday than what we
have represented now. Perhaps greater than the system described in
the paragraphs above is a juicier front headed this way earlier in
the weekend. This too, may encounter a colder air mass across the
north, so while cooling temperatures into the weekend, we have
also introduced the chance of snow with this system, more than
likely at onset of precipitation as the system spreads northward.
Time will tell, but for now we must rest on the words, "A foolish
thought to say a sorry sight."
But then the lady tells us why it is ok. "These deeds must not be
thought after these ways. So it will make us mad." It is a
legitimate shot, even if it is not likely. The north will have a
dry atmosphere, and should sufficient weak overrunning commence
from the southern Panhandle, a few flurries could fall. History
says it will occur soon.
Few changes were made beyond the weekend. We used ensemble blends
to nudge temperature lower across the Panhandle. Significant changes
were made Thursday/Thursday night in the wind field following the
Canadian, which held best to continuity. Pops were lowered to
chance for the north in general while keeping likely to
categorical for the south. Next week will be determined largely on
how events unfold leading into the weekend.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.
Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041>043-051.
&&
$$
JB/JWA
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...s-week-goes-shakespeare-and-it-was-brilliant/
Here is the original AFD:
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
243 PM AKDT Tue Oct 30 2018
...
.LONG TERM..."I have done the deed," as Macbeth once nervously
proclaimed. As is customarily the case when one first reads "snow"
in the forecast, one can imagine the trepidation felt by a
forecaster at the first instance where said forecaster is
presented with this high profile conundrum. It is truly the stuff
of Shakespearean tragedy. Someone has to do it; it is Alaska and
the calendar doth say, "Consider it not so deeply."
But even after it is done, there is always thoughts of doubt, as
Lady Macbeth states, "I am afraid they have awaked and tis not
done." It may not be done, because the low on Thursday night comes
hither on a path more southerly that we originally thought, so
slaying each outlier model run as one bidst "God bless us," and
the other "Amen," has become a challenge indeed in such a
difficult pattern to get right. While earlier we speculated the low
to follow a northerly course across the north central Panhandle,
suggesting a warmer system, we are looking at possibly a much
more southerly track with areas north of Petersburg under the
influence of a cooler air mass. So while we have decreased pop,
yet not erased it, and lowered expected precipitation amounts
across the north, we have also cooled temperatures a bit more
boldy, therefore adding a chance of rain and, yes obligatorily,
snow for much of the northern Panhandle Thursday night through the
weekend.
"This is a sorry sight," rings the wisdom of Lady Macbeth. So
while we feel as if we needed to get the deed done, we also
acknowledge that much of this forecast averages solutions that
will likely span two bookended likelihoods of either a drier and
colder atmosphere whereby nothing falls from the sky, or else, a
more northerly track with a wetter and warmer atmosphere whereby
the only thing that does fall is in liquid form. And thus we risk
our messaging going haywire with our forecasts marked with magical
four-letter words beginning in `s.` Only we should stress the
preceding words--"chance of."
Not lost on the hyper focus of whether to introduce snow in the
north is the higher likelihood of beneficial rain across the
south with the greater likelihood of a southern Panhandle landfall
of the Thursday system.
Looking beyond, we see greater reason why the system progresses
more quickly and offers a drier forecast for Friday than what we
have represented now. Perhaps greater than the system described in
the paragraphs above is a juicier front headed this way earlier in
the weekend. This too, may encounter a colder air mass across the
north, so while cooling temperatures into the weekend, we have
also introduced the chance of snow with this system, more than
likely at onset of precipitation as the system spreads northward.
Time will tell, but for now we must rest on the words, "A foolish
thought to say a sorry sight."
But then the lady tells us why it is ok. "These deeds must not be
thought after these ways. So it will make us mad." It is a
legitimate shot, even if it is not likely. The north will have a
dry atmosphere, and should sufficient weak overrunning commence
from the southern Panhandle, a few flurries could fall. History
says it will occur soon.
Few changes were made beyond the weekend. We used ensemble blends
to nudge temperature lower across the Panhandle. Significant changes
were made Thursday/Thursday night in the wind field following the
Canadian, which held best to continuity. Pops were lowered to
chance for the north in general while keeping likely to
categorical for the south. Next week will be determined largely on
how events unfold leading into the weekend.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.
Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041>043-051.
&&
$$
JB/JWA
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau
