09L: Hurricane Ike

[Joel Wright]

It sure got it's act together quickly after leaving Cuba. The way the pressure was dropping Wednesday, and the good conditions for development had many of us thinking it was going to really strengthen today. Obviously that didn't happen.

Cantore brought up a good point on TWC a little bit ago. He thinks because Ike's wind field is so large, it's essentially overturning the warm water on the gulf's surface long before the center gets to it.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

The convection definitely appears to be ramping up all over Ike, and a dropsonde just reported 95kt winds at the surface! I'm no expert at this, but Ike could be starting to strengthen just in time to make Houston miserable.

 

[Scott Overpeck]

Is Houston really that susceptible to a hurricane? I guess I could see Galveston areas needing that sort of prodding, but Houston?

As mentioned, there are a ton of people in the Houston area. What people do not realize is how close Houston is to Galveston Bay and storm surge that pushes up the Houston Ship channel and bayous. The SE part of Houston is very susceptible especially with a track through Gal Bay. So, the combination of population and flat low lying areas - parts of Houston really need prodding. A real problem is how close NASA and JSC are to Clear Lake. They will have a problem with surge as well. With Houston being so large in size, the NW part of Houston will really not have too many problems, sans winds and rain.

I'm bunkered in our office. Here's a link if anyone is interested. Nice to have a facility like this.

Galveston Co OEM building

 

[Sarah Austin]

Originally Quoted by Darren Addy
Where are you getting the 100 deaths number? As of 11:00 PM CDT, I'm seeing 4 reported. Now Haiti, that's a different story.

There was a misprint in a local newspaper on Monday. To my knowledge, there have only been 4 fatalities from Ike in Cuba. As for Haiti, I have seen the numbers: 58 from the Seattle Times, 71 from USA Today, and 200 from Fire Earth Environment News and Information. As far as I'm concerned any fatalities from any storm is tragic.

 

[rdale]

The convection definitely appears to be ramping up all over Ike, and a dropsonde just reported 95kt winds at the surface!

Nope - a correction was sent right after. 74kts.

 

[Jason Young]

Scott , My uncle ( 74) is being an as@ , and is going to ride the storm out in Dickinson.
Can Dickinson handle this storm surge that we all fear?

 

[rdale]

Buoy 42001 is just 40 miles from the center and has almost been under the eyewall for quite some time... Never reached sustained hurricane criteria - and barely gusted to hurricane strength. Minimum pressure 960mb so it had to be near the center. Waves to 20 feet.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

 

[Marc Austin]

Outflow on the western side of Ike looks pretty darn good compared to what it did yesterday and earlier today. Not sure if this trend will keep up, but it does make things more favorable for strengthening. Also, the storm still seems to be expanding... Is that just a trick of the eye or something? I don't see how it could possibly get any larger. I know it's not typhoon Tip or anything, but it's a monster. Also, I don't know how the hurricane hunters go about getting a uniform measure of the sustained winds inside the storm, but is it possible that there are areas where wind maxima are well over 100mph? It seems like the hurricane hunters might have a hard time finding max winds in a storm that's so large. Some of the strongest winds have been measured well away from the center. I'm not sure what to make of this storm... It's very unique. Surge is definitely the big issue and the large wave atop the surge will make for some very frightening conditions come this time Saturday morning.

 

[Marc Austin]

Buoy 42001 is just 40 miles from the center and has almost been under the eyewall for quite some time... Never reached sustained hurricane criteria - and hasn't even gusted to hurricane strength yet. Minimum pressure 960mb so it had to be near the center. Waves to 20 feet.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

Gusts: 68kts = 78.2 mph I think those are CAT1 winds.

 

[rdale]

Missed that one. So a gust barely to hurricane strength, while NHC says sustained winds over that buoy are 80-100mph with gusts to 120mph. Must be a sensor error

 

[Jason Young]

A Hurricane wind warning all the way up to the Red River ? Is this something new they do?
Sorry more a spring weather guy

 

[Sarah Austin]

This has to be the largest hurricane I have witnessed. While experiencing some of the rain bands here in Florida yesterday, the Weather Channel was showing that Louisianna was just starting to see rain bands. I can't remember when a hurricane affected such a large area. Is this the largest hurricane or has there been one even larger?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Gusts: 68kts = 78.2 mph I think those are CAT1 winds.

That is, but remember that "hurricane strength winds" are >74 kt SUSTAINED winds. As such, "Cat 1 gusts" is kind of a misnomer. Cat 1 winds are 64-82 kt SUSTAINED, which would like convert to 75-95 kt gusts I would estimate. I do wonder the effect of sea spray and the "transition zone" of sort that arises when you have big waves and strong winds... I mean, the interface between water and air can become quite diffuse in the presence of strong winds and large waves, so a near-water wind reading by a buoy may be deceptively low owing to this water-air-spray mix region.

 

[rdale]

A Hurricane wind warning all the way up to the Red River ? Is this something new they do?

There's a Inland Tropical Storm Wind Watch - is that what you are referring to?

42001 plot - http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42001&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=5&time_label=CDT

 

[Jason Young]

Yes , sorry about that . think I need sleep lol. Anyone know the Tornado count on Hurricane Katrina ?