09L: Hurricane Ike

I'm sure someone can find a better source for annular hurricanes, but the "gov" sources all seem to assume a definition rather than state one clearly, so here's something from wikipedia, and although one must be skeptical of wikipedia this does sound like it came from someone well-versed in the subject:

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Annular hurricane
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - Cite This Source

An annular hurricane is a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific Oceans that features a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick ring of intense convection. This type of storm is not prone to the fluctuations in intensity associated with eyewall replacement cycles, unlike typical intense tropical cyclones. Annular hurricanes also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions which easily dissipate most other hurricanes. Forecasters have difficulty predicting the behavior of annular hurricanes; they are a recently recognized phenomenon, and as such, little is known about their tendencies. Because of this, they can be more dangerous than typical hurricanes.
Characteristics
Annular hurricanes are axisymmetric — symmetric along every radial axis, i.e. very circular in appearance. They lack the spiralform rainbands which are characteristic of typical tropical cyclones. After reaching peak intensity, they weaken much more slowly than non-annular storms of similar intensity. However, most annular hurricanes have annular characteristics for only a portion of their lifetimes.

While hurricanes retain annular characteristics, they also seem to be less affected by diurnal, or daily variations. Most annular hurricanes have peak intensities of greater than 85 knots (100 mph, 155 km/h) and more than 85% of their theoretical maximum potential intensity.

Annular hurricanes maintain their intensities longer than usual after their peaks. Statistics show that forecasters significantly overestimate the lessening of wind velocities in annular hurricanes. In terms of the Dvorak technique, annular hurricanes weaken very slowly after their peak (on average, less than 0.5 T after one day from their peak intensities).

Annular hurricanes are very rare. Few storms meet all of the criteria, although many strong storms resemble annular hurricanes in some criteria. Fewer than 1% of Atlantic tropical cyclones encounter all of the environmental conditions associated with annular hurricanes. In the Eastern Pacific, such conditions are more common, but still very unusual — 3% of Pacific tropical cyclones encounter them.

An algorithm for objective identification, in real time, of annular hurricanes has been developed and shows skill, but it is not yet operational.
Formation
Research into the characteristics and formation of annular hurricanes is still in its infancy. First classified and categorized in 2002, little is known about how they form, or why some are able to maintain their intensity in hostile conditions.

What meteorologists do know is that a normal hurricane, after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, fails to re-establish the standard hurricane appearance. The new eyewall thickens, and rainbands dissipate, and the hurricane takes on an annular structure. As compared to the formation of normal hurricanes, this happens under weaker wind shear and, surprisingly, cooler sea surface temperatures.

Some of the conditions associated with annular hurricanes are:

* An intensity 85% or greater from their theoretical maximum potential intensity,
* Weak wind shear from the east or southeast,
* A cold east wind at a high altitude (the 200 mbar pressure level),
* Near-constant sea surface temperatures between 25.4 °C and 28.5 °C, and
* Lack of relative eddy flux convergence at the 200 mbar pressure level, relative to the storm.

Notable annular hurricanes

Hurricane Luis of the 1995 Atlantic hurricane season, and Hurricane Edouard of 1996 may have been annular hurricanes. Hurricane Epsilon of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season had a similar structure to an annular hurricane, which partially explains the storm's longevity in the face of unfavorable conditions. Powerful Hurricane Isabel from 2003 also generated an annular hurricane structure around the time of its peak intensity.

2006's Hurricane Daniel in the eastern Pacific (image shown at the above at the right) exhibited annular hurricane features with a large, well defined eye and was described as such by the United States' National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Daniel was able to retain Category 4 intensity for a lengthy period of time, and in parts of the Eastern Pacific basin which at the time were unfavorable for such sustained intensity.
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as a supplement here's a discussion of Hurricane Episilon from NHC, mentioning the annular aspect potential:

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CZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A
HURRICANE AT SUCH HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER. IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED
LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. EPSILON RESEMBLES ONE OF THESE
ANNULAR HURRICANES OR "TRUCK TIRE PATTERN" DESCRIBED IN THE
SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE. ALTHOUGH THIS CLASSIFICATION IS FOR
HURRICANES IN THE DEEP TROPICS...EPSILON HAS INDEED MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY...MORE THAN ANTICIPATED.
 
Guess I'll chime in here. Ike looked pretty good on Wed.. symmetry was good,some intense convection,pressure falls etc. It looked good to keep getting better. Although it did have a very small eye it still cant quite get its act together. Looking at the latest IR imagery it looks like the tiny eyewall core disappeared and was trying to be replaced by the outer one..Still has intense convection around it and now in some of the outer bands but its going to need a solid defined eye core to really ramp up in power.. I am far from a Hurricane expert but it seems to have the same problem Gustav had. The conditions are good for intensifying but still having issues. Canes that come to mind that had terrific structure are Katrina,Wilma, Rita and Ivan..obviously major canes but they didnt have a problem getting it together. So many factors though can apparently make it tough.
I'll guess on a 3 for Ike but I would not be surprised to see a 2 at landfall.
It may ramp up to a 4 but its going to have to get its act together and go through a period of rapid intensification for that. Guess we'll see what Thursday brings...
 
Dont count out Ike yet. Its still got 2 days with nothing to stop intensification but eyewall cycles. I would also like to add that the storm is <950mb, and has been steadily strengthening all day. This is allready a powerful and impressive storm. The large windfield makes up for lower winds(in terms of surge)... and the model consensus track is getting pretty close to what could be a solid surge strike on Galveston Bay...

EDIT: Anyone have access to a SLOSH run for a cat 3-4 landfalling just south of Galveston?
 
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Just saw a Corpus Christi TV station 11pm report that suggested Ike will only be a Cat2 at landfall now - can't find that elsewhere - does anybody else have some clarification?
 
any ideas?

I have a friend who lives in Webster.....basically right next to NASA....she is headed with her folks to Kingwood for tonight and they may go to Austin. She wants to come to Wichita Falls but I told her that may not be the best idea with the impacts of Ike moving into North Texas with high winds and massive flooding a threat. Wichita Falls BTW has said it will not accept any evacuees due to our fooding we had last month and 150 families still in need and some area roads still washed out. You guys think she is better off staying put in Austin or even Kingwood or should she get up North to where I am in Wichita Falls? This has been the most erratic hurricane forecast I can remember and I am not a tropical expert at all so I was curious as to any of you guys ideas. I know some of you are chasing this thing and all I can say is be careful....especially if its your 1st time. My friend tho is jsut a little blue eyed red headed cutie who has no knowledge of storms etc. and shes scared to death so Im tryin to make sure she is as safe as she can be.
ANY IDEAS ARE WELCOME. My own feelings are that as much as id like to see her lol.....im thinkin she may be better off stayin put in Austin or Kingwood...unless she heads this way like friday early.
 
Safe place to say

Jason Brock wrote about His Friend's situation. I am sorry about her predicement...But this is my sugestion:

As far inland as the choices are, the fresh water flooding is brobably the greatest worry. If you have information about the location of the X year floodplain (it is probably available on online maps) this is probably a good start for making a decision.

If there are two locations, one beside a flashy creek or river and another on a hill well above any floodplains then the later is the way to go. The winds may be scary, but the stress from this might be more amenable to deep breathing, relaxation techniques etc., while response to a flood may involve running for one's life.

I hope this helps....Good luck.
 
Just saw a Corpus Christi TV station 11pm report that suggested Ike will only be a Cat2 at landfall now - can't find that elsewhere - does anybody else have some clarification?

In the US, many TV stations employ real meteorologists (many don't, story for another thread ;) ) who make their own forecasts independent of NHC. That is likely the outlook of that meteorologist.
 
I have a friend who lives in Webster.....basically right next to NASA....she is headed with her folks to Kingwood for tonight and they may go to Austin. She wants to come to Wichita Falls but I told her that may not be the best idea with the impacts of Ike moving into North Texas with high winds and massive flooding a threat. Wichita Falls BTW has said it will not accept any evacuees due to our fooding we had last month and 150 families still in need and some area roads still washed out. You guys think she is better off staying put in Austin or even Kingwood or should she get up North to where I am in Wichita Falls? This has been the most erratic hurricane forecast I can remember and I am not a tropical expert at all so I was curious as to any of you guys ideas. I know some of you are chasing this thing and all I can say is be careful....especially if its your 1st time. My friend tho is jsut a little blue eyed red headed cutie who has no knowledge of storms etc. and shes scared to death so Im tryin to make sure she is as safe as she can be.
ANY IDEAS ARE WELCOME. My own feelings are that as much as id like to see her lol.....im thinkin she may be better off stayin put in Austin or Kingwood...unless she heads this way like friday early.


Ike is going to be moving pretty quickly and Wichita Falls should be on the Western side of the storm. This combination of the two should mean relatively little impact other than a breeze and some showers.

Kingwood should get a lot of rain since the system wont be moving nearly as quickly when it makes landfall and depending on where Ike decides to come in she will likely be dealing with hurricane force winds, the threat of tornadoes and a very strong chance they lose power for days.
 
ANY IDEAS ARE WELCOME. My own feelings are that as much as id like to see her lol.....im thinkin she may be better off stayin put in Austin or Kingwood...unless she heads this way like friday early.

Jason, something to consider is that they cancelled the UT/Arkansas game that was supposed to be played this Saturday in Austin...meaning that there is a good bet that there will be plenty of cancellations for anyone needing a place to stay in the Austin area. That said, the storm is forecast to move quickly north/northeast once it gets inland, just as Brandon said in the previous post, so it depends on how much driving they want to do as I'm sure I-35 and other routes north will be pretty crowded with traffic leaving the coastal areas.
 
Sorry for the semi off topic text here....

ANY IDEAS ARE WELCOME. My own feelings are that as much as id like to see her lol.....im thinkin she may be better off stayin put in Austin or Kingwood...unless she heads this way like friday early.

Jason, if it helps I have family in San Antonio and I could discuss with them if they would be willing to head down to San Antonio. I know the New Braunfels area between Austin and San Antonio has TERRIBLE flooding problems so They would want to head south from Austin well before the rains start to affect the area. Send me a PM if this is an option and I will start making calls. Also the county Houston is in reportedly is expected to make the announcement and commence the mandatory evacuations for portions of the Houston Metro around noon today so do expect severe travel delays out of the city towards Austin and Dallas.
There is a toll free hotline for Texas road conditions that has been set up and is 1-800-452-9292 and the Texas DOT has given the green light for any large evacuations.

Also just an FYI, the Galveston Ferry will close today at 11pm and the water system in Bolivar, County will shut down at 5pm.
 
Just saw a Corpus Christi TV station 11pm report that suggested Ike will only be a Cat2 at landfall now - can't find that elsewhere - does anybody else have some clarification?

If thousands of people were listening to my forecast I wouldn't focus on intensity at landfall. I'd rather give people a range of possibilities.

Looks like Houston is coming back into the forecast track.
 
Looks like Houston is coming back into the forecast track.

Unfortunate for me...at least I'll have a nice bunker to hole up.

I've enjoyed reading everyone's thoughts on Ike concerning its structure and intensity. The intensity issue is troublesome given pressures down to 946mb which would support strong Cat 3 possibly a 4, but like people have been saying, winds are not responding. Looking at water vapor imagery as well as SSTs, I think the combo of some drier air and moving away from higher SSTs is keeping Ike from strengthening. It still has great outflow so I wouldn't rule out some strengthening. Forecasting the track of Ike has been a challenge as well. The ridge seems to be not as strong and rather uniform. You basically have 500mb heights of 589-591dm all along the gulf coast with no really defined center of the ridge. It seems the center of the ridge is slow to develop and possibly why Ike continues on its current motion. The biggest problem will be a matter of when it turns more to the NW and N as it nears the upper tx coast.

I hope people are staying safe. I'll try to post more if I get a chance as Ike nears. Time to go put up the storm shutters...fun. :(
 
Sorry for the semi off topic text here....

Also the county Houston is in reportedly is expected to make the announcement and commence the mandatory evacuations for portions of the Houston Metro around noon today so do expect severe travel delays out of the city towards Austin and Dallas.
There is a toll free hotline for Texas road conditions that has been set up and is 1-800-452-9292 and the Texas DOT has given the green light for any large evacuations.

Also just an FYI, the Galveston Ferry will close today at 11pm and the water system in Bolivar, County will shut down at 5pm.

FYI - Harris county (Houston) just announced their evacuations at 7AM. Mand Evacs begin at noon. Check your zip code!
 
Interpretation of the 11/06Z GFDL scenario:

FSU's GFDL (which seems to be doing pretty well) has the storm making landfall about 30 miles southwest of Freeport TX Friday night in a relatively unpopulated area of the coastline after midnight with a 941 mb center. Freeport becomes a chaser mecca and gets the brunt of the eyewall with Cat 3/4 winds. Houston misses most of the high winds except for the western suburbs and the Katy area, but gets some spotty flooding. Saturday has a big messy inland storm over the AUS-IAH-DFW triangle... it will be a nasty, nasty day for anyone plying I-35 and I-45 when you factor in the already sucky weekend traffic. The storm then heads right for the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex Saturday evening, giving a rather interesting inland cyclone replete with an eye, a la the "OKC cyclone" (last year was it?). It then rolls across much of SE OK as a fast moving mess of tropical rain.

I also noted that the GFDL initialized with a 962 mb center, which I am going to assume is spin-up error. Model data is always so perishable and hard to find after-the-fact, so I'm putting pen to paper here and will be interested to see how closely the whole scenario pans out.

Tim

EDIT: Wrote AUS-SAT-DFW triangle, meant AUS-IAH-DFW triangle
 
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