08/23/04 NOW: Northern Plains/NE

[nickgrillo]

Started by request.

The SPC has placed all of the Northern Plains in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. The best chance for tornadoes appears to be in central ND and SD later this evening.

Convection is already beggining to fire in NE.

NOW...

 

[mikegeukes]

Supercells are possilble this afternoon into the evening hours in the Dakotas.

SRN/CENTRAL ND AND W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL SD
A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2083.html
Mike

 

[Amos Magliocco]

A strong dry punch is working into central South Dakota attm, see observations at RAP and PHP. Winds have backed nicely northeast of this feature with impressive moisture values in the source regions of southeast SD and NW Iowa. LLJ looks stronger than progged by yesterday's models and deep layer shear values are increasing from west to east as the shortwave moves in.

It would appear the subsidence behind the early morning s/w helped clear the skies (similar to 10-9-01) and helped set the stage for a what could be a cool chase day. Wish I was there.

Tornado Watch issued 20 minutes ago:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0775.html

"STRONG TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN MT
WITH RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WRN DAKOTAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AHEAD OF SYSTEM AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN ND AND NW SD. SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING TORNADOES."

 

[Glen Romine]

Sfc based convection still looks unlikely IMO in the favorable shear and high low-level RH environment. Wave clouds evident on sat imagery attest to the strength of the low-level capping inversion. Expect some hail and high wind reports - I'll be surprised to see tornadoes though - so prepare for an outbreak...lol.

Glen

 

[mikegeukes]

Tornado Reports: Montana
At 411 PM MDT n Western Roosevelt County in northeast Montana
the public reported a tornado, 17 miles north of Wolf Point.

Mike

 

[mikegeukes]

Some hi-resolution satellite images, centered on Bismarck, Pierre, Hastings and Wichita.
Hit refesh from time to time for updated images.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_mci...1&size=768x1024
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_mci...1&size=768x1024
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_mci...1&size=768x1024
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_mci...1&size=768x1024

New: WW 777 TORNADO KS MO NE 232315Z - 240600Z
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0777.html

Mike

 

[Glen Romine]

Tornado Reports: Montana
At 411 PM MDT n Western Roosevelt County in northeast Montana
the public reported a tornado, 17 miles north of Wolf Point.

Mike

Mike, where did you find this tornado report? It doesn't show up in the LSR, nor in any advisories.

New MCD touting the increased likelihood of tornadoes in ND as cells approach a sfc boundary evident on the BIS radar. Meanwhile, T warn now in Blaine county, NE - it is an awkward looking cell - will be interesting to see if it can get it done.

Glen

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I've been out getting photos of a few of the smaller cells ... some have put on some very nice shows this evening. I'm debating whether or not it's worth it to head over to the west to pick up the stuff coming up out of TOP. Earlier a cell near KC actually developed a nice inflow feeder band, which surprised me because the winds just didn't seem interesting to me today - surface winds appeared almost non-existent. Got a few cool shots of verga and a stunning rainbow tonight that I'll put up sometime before tomorrow. The air remains saturated ... I know that much. What I've seen so far has remained high-based but at times there were a couple of cells that pulsed to the point that I thought they may want to reach closer to the surface.

Thinking about whether or not I want to head back out -

 

[Glen Romine]

The mature cell near BIS did in fact turn right as it crossed the radar indicated boundary, so maybe that cell is in fact rooted in the BL. Still, no reported tornadoes last I checked. Don't understand the T warn for the cell in NE, outflow is pretty evident on radar to extend well south of the precip shield. Convection in KS getting it done - I had started to lose hope this was going to make it.

Glen

 

[mikegeukes]

Tornado Reports: Kansas
712 PM CDT 3 miles south of Silver Lake in Shawnee County
839 PM CDT Clinton Lake in Douglas County

Tornado Reports: North Dakota
735 PM CDT 7 miles west of Mandan in Morton County
747 PM CDT 10 miles west of Center in Oliver County

Tornado Reports: South Dakota
705 PM CDT 3 miles northeast of Toronto in Deuel Cpunty

Glen the report came for the Montana tornado came from here:
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/0408232212.KGGW.wfus55.html
and now listed in the LSR:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGGW/0408240037.nwus55.html

Mike