08/15/04: FCST [Atlantic] Danielle

[Larry J. Kosch]

Hey let's not forget about the tropical storm before Earl...Danielle.
Starting a FCST thread since TPC thinks she will turns into a hurricane by Sunday.

...DANIELLE STRENGTHENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 28.7 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES... 480 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
..FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DANIELLE
WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

Place your forecasts here. Thanks.

 

[Pat Palmer]

As of 11 PM EDT, 8/14 Danielle is a hurricane. At 7AM EDT, she is becoming much more symmetrical, and is developing an eye.

Typically, storms that form that far east this early in the season never see landfall in the western hemisphere. They usaully recurve in the middle of the ocean, go extratropical, and bring rain and fog to England.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Shipping Lanes Threats

storms that form that far east this early in the season never see landfall in the western hemisphere.

That's true and typical. But just because a hurricane is so far out at sea and never able to make landfall, it doesn't mean its not a threat. IT IS!! There are shipping lanes all over the Atlantic. Our imported goods comes on ships across the Atlantic as well as the Pacific.

When a hurricane threatens the shipping lanes, the shipppers either 1. Delay their ships so the hurricane can pass by harmlessly. 2. Reroute their ships on longer routes around the affected areas. This would have an impact on our imported goods and the prices we have to pay for them.

Particulary in the area of imported oil, any kind of delay, hurricane, refinery fire, or Middle East oil embargo, will result in higher oil and gas prices. The last two tropical storms, Bonnie and Charley, has already affected the oil production levels in the Gulf of Mexico and the Carribean.

I would not be surprised to see the gas pump prices go up in the next few weeks. I would forecast gas prices rising close to the $2.00/gallon level and beyond by Labor Day.

Sorry I got WAY off topic here. Just trying to make a point about hurricanes affecting us even though its way out at sea with no land in sight.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Danielle strengthens

Public advisory from the TPC:

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 36.3 WEST OR ABOUT 820 MILES...1315 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Danielle is forecasted to continue its movement to the NW at 17 mph.

 

[mikegeukes]

Based on this map, Danielle should not hit the United States.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT04/...IF/161458W5.gif

Mike