07/26/2005 TALK: MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES

Been watching the models, and TUE could be real interesting. Still a ways out, but with massive amounts of instability and the combination of shear and forcing the GFS is showing, things would be very active to say the least -

Interesting quote from GRR (never seen this type of enthusiasm from them before):

THAT WILL MEAN MCS AFTER MCS ROLLING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
TILL THE MAIN UPPER WAVE COMES THROUGH LATER TUESDAY WITH A REAL
BANG! THAT WILL HAVE JET ENTRANCE REGION LIFT... 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL INFLOW... GOOD CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE AND GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE (JET ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT JET CORE). 850 MB
DEW POINTS COULD BE NEAR 18C TUESDAY NEAR THE FRONT! WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY FOR SURE. CAPES COULD BE 5000 J/KG OR MORE WITH
THIS EVENT TOO. NEED I SAY MORE?

Hopefully things stay on this track... Still too early for a FCST thread though.
 
Depending on the timing of the event, I'll probably be out near the Lansing area (working, but I get a break when severe weather draws close). I have personally never seen that kind of enthusiasm from the NWS, so I'm rather interested to see what brews up or how it evolves as it approaches.
 
I have been watching this as well... I didn't really even have it pinned down to a day yet, as Monday looks like it could be interesting in areas such as the Dakotas. The GFS is the model to go with in this system I believe, it has been handling it very well over several runs already. This looks to be quite a strong cold front that will push its way down into the plains and off towards the great lakes area. It definately bears watching, but so far none of my local offices have said to much about it...
 
IT's official

It's Official..............

Just got back from grocery run and noticed one of the checkout counter rags ............

"MIDWEST TO BE DESTROYED BY GIANT TORNADO"

"Size of a mountain" or something like that.

Check it out yourself. I'm calling my insurance agent and clearing out my storm cellar.

JT
 
Do we start to look at 7-2-97 as a similar day?

Sat night into sunday should be interesting as well with what should be a strong MCS rolling SE across the state.
 
MCS after MCS lets get some actual SUPCells here. It does look pretty descent. On GFS i was seeing a little meso low over the lake by 00Z. Sadly i have to work on Tuesday. But i usually get out around 530. or 2130z. I hope it hold off till then. Hope to see some of the My fellow Mganders out and about.
 
This seems very curious to me. If the NWS, is really right, then it would sound like their would be some monter supercells, or multicells. I don't see anything on radar as of now.
 
Andrew not talking about today (saturday) but Tuesday. Yes i see the ETA keeping this a little more westwardly and thats not cool. its still what 70- 84 hours out any way. The Favorable backed low level shear is not even in MI, but Northen IL and IA, Northern IN. At 250mb the strongest jet stays north of the low. While all other levels are very favorable in the Southern WI Eastern IA nothern IL, to the SW Michigan to the North western part of Indiana. Frankly if time allows i would rather chase SW of me. This state is so tree infested its not funny. lol. Im not getting my hopes up nor down ill stay nuetral. It would be nice to see a supercell again. But i'll take what i can get. i just hope work does not make a large confliction for this day.

Oh and the CAPE values dont look nearly as high as was mentioned by local CWA's.

I think since this day was brought up in TA it has been going down hill ;). How about we stop talking about it and let it run its course. :roll:
 
I understand, thanks Kurt. Their was a hazardous weather outlook for parts of MI, and IL. I looked under Grand Rapids, MI. I'm currently looking for some accurate surface analysis and forcast models. Yes it does seem to be more in the MN area or even the WI area.
 
well if your looking for tornadoes here in MI on tuesday forget it. these are ALL derecho and bow setups and nothing more and they are classic. just like last year. you get a warm front strong undirectional shear and then a powerful cold front and they trigger the storms bow out then ride along the warm front. only good news is it does look to be a promising day for damaging winds so if you want wind then you have come to the right place. lol
 
Somebody have an update for this...........
I understand the models are not showing the mega T but still seems like we should get something with a cold front coming through 80 deg temps and Td in the 70's?

JT
 
The threat looks like it has transitioned into the 03Z to 12Z timeframe (late tonight/tomorrow morning).

Latest 12Z NAM shows a pretty strong wave developing, with a low level jet increasing to 50knts and 700mb winds increasing to 55-60knts between 06Z and 12Z tomorrow. Low level moisture and instability will increase as a result of the strong low level jet, helping to push the warm front northward again this evening. Instability in the overnight hours remains near 1500-2000J/KG, and with the combination of strong forcing, shear, and modest instability - any MCS that develops further west this evening should advect into the region overnight and maintain its intensity (or intensify with the increasing shear).

Looking at forecast soundings from the NAM, things still appear to be quite unstable overnight. I did have to modify the SFC temperature and low level temperature down a bit, as the NAM had 85F, which is obviously much too high for 09Z. Even with a SFC parcel of 77/71 T/Td, and we still have over 2000J/KG of CAPE, though with quite a bit of CINH (that CINH is a result of the 85F temp at 925mb, which may not happen). Wind fields are quite strong, with 50knts making down as low as 900mb, or less than 1000 meters.

Depending where exactly along the warm front storms fire will really determine the severe threat. If they are relatively far north of the warm front, the main threat would be from hail... If things can root themselves right on the warm front, and take advantage of the SFC based instability, then damaging winds would become a concern, as well as isolated tornadoes.
 
Well the spc has blessed Ohio with a 5% tor. Awfully populated state to consider that a good thing but I intend to chase today.

From the SPC day one CO.
20-30 KT OF SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KILOMETERS WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES...

I am starting out from Columbus and will head West on I70 NW on 23, or North on 171 depending on circumstance. Targets being Bowling green OH, Dayton OH or mansfield OH.

Mesoscale discussion for MI, IN, IL already this morning.

Here in OH we have decent surface winds from the S to SW and are expecting extreme heating.

The northern IN AFD has added some strong wording this AM regarding today's potential. From the Northern IN AFD..
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERING
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS POOLING INTO MID 70S JUST AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. LINE OF MODERATE CU BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THIS
AXIS. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS AREA...ONE OF
WHICH HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING.

All things considered the SPC seems to be the most convinced that todays weather will be severe. Too close to home for me to ignore so I will be out there somewhere today.

I will check back in when I get some more detailed data. Good luck today.

--
tom hanlon
 
Heading to the FT WAYNE IN / TOLEDO OH region.

Not particularly hopeful but it is in my backyard more or less.

Extreme heating and lots of moisture.... something could happen.

--
tom hanlon
 
Wow...

Just had some fun for a few minuites, bunch of large stones fell in my backyard... All of them just under 1"INCH, just reported nickel-sized hail to DTX...
 
Was outside working after the 7am mess went through.

100% humidity - not fun.

Another disorganized line just went through around 1pm EDT heading for DTW. Although this was somewhat local so should not mess up everything.

The actual front is still 100 miles to NW I think so provided we get some re-heating and it doesn't go linear right away. Satellite does show some breaks. IF DTX prediction of 90's/70's it could still get interesting.

I will be out if that happens.

JT
 
Overall flow in southeast MI is pretty good at all levels, with +15kts at 850mb, 20-35kts at 700mb, 30-40kts at 500mb... The directional shear is also pretty good, so I am not surprised to see decent low-level rotation from time-to-time, even with that storm that just passed over my house showed some broad-scale rotation.

0120 PM HAIL W ROSEVILLE 42.51N 82.94W
07/26/2005 1.00 INCH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF I-696

0124 PM HAIL NW ROSEVILLE 42.51N 82.94W
07/26/2005 0.88 INCH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR M-53/I-696

0130 PM TSTM WND GST SW DEARBORN HEIGHTS 42.33N 83.27W
07/26/2005 60 MPH WAYNE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN

124 PM is my report, wonder where that other spotter was :lol:
 
Although the activity for today is not all that focused, I guess I have to pick a location, unlike the weather I can not be two places at once. :cry:

New MD from the SPC places a broad swath of concern from OH to NY. The first line of CU that went up in OH seem to be pulse severe rather than building into a solid line. Actually they may grow into strong storms but since we passed under them and they are moving East we have to let them go.

We got West of those and will head North into Findlay OH and see what happens there.

--
tom hanlon
 
Unfortunately it looks like there is some lines forming along the front in NW Michigan.

JT

honestly, those lines i think will be about it with the front. I think storms will be hard pressed to form along the cold front itself.
 
Unfortunately it looks like there is some lines forming along the front in NW Michigan.

JT

honestly, those lines i think will be about it with the front. I think storms will be hard pressed to form along the cold front itself.

Yeah...

Monroe/Lenawee should be seeing the last of the MI action for the day, as the severe threat continues to diminsh... Overall, I feel kind of good about today - pretty nice backyard chase, with hail nearly 1"INCH.
 
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