07/26/2005 TALK: MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES

[Robert Dewey]

Been watching the models, and TUE could be real interesting. Still a ways out, but with massive amounts of instability and the combination of shear and forcing the GFS is showing, things would be very active to say the least -

Interesting quote from GRR (never seen this type of enthusiasm from them before):

THAT WILL MEAN MCS AFTER MCS ROLLING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
TILL THE MAIN UPPER WAVE COMES THROUGH LATER TUESDAY WITH A REAL
BANG! THAT WILL HAVE JET ENTRANCE REGION LIFT... 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL INFLOW... GOOD CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE AND GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE (JET ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT JET CORE). 850 MB
DEW POINTS COULD BE NEAR 18C TUESDAY NEAR THE FRONT! WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY FOR SURE. CAPES COULD BE 5000 J/KG OR MORE WITH
THIS EVENT TOO. NEED I SAY MORE?

Hopefully things stay on this track... Still too early for a FCST thread though.

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

Depending on the timing of the event, I'll probably be out near the Lansing area (working, but I get a break when severe weather draws close). I have personally never seen that kind of enthusiasm from the NWS, so I'm rather interested to see what brews up or how it evolves as it approaches.

 

[Jayson Prentice]

I have been watching this as well... I didn't really even have it pinned down to a day yet, as Monday looks like it could be interesting in areas such as the Dakotas. The GFS is the model to go with in this system I believe, it has been handling it very well over several runs already. This looks to be quite a strong cold front that will push its way down into the plains and off towards the great lakes area. It definately bears watching, but so far none of my local offices have said to much about it...

 

[John Thurston]

IT's official

It's Official..............

Just got back from grocery run and noticed one of the checkout counter rags ............

"MIDWEST TO BE DESTROYED BY GIANT TORNADO"

"Size of a mountain" or something like that.

Check it out yourself. I'm calling my insurance agent and clearing out my storm cellar.

JT

 

[Tim Gonyo]

If it lands in Wisconsin, I can chase after 3:30 PM CDT on Tuesday....

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

Do we start to look at 7-2-97 as a similar day?

Sat night into sunday should be interesting as well with what should be a strong MCS rolling SE across the state.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

MCS after MCS lets get some actual SUPCells here. It does look pretty descent. On GFS i was seeing a little meso low over the lake by 00Z. Sadly i have to work on Tuesday. But i usually get out around 530. or 2130z. I hope it hold off till then. Hope to see some of the My fellow Mganders out and about.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Latest model runs aren't looking so hot... Hopefully things will change.

 

[Tim Gonyo]

Woohoo... WEST!

 

[Jayson Prentice]

... Watching Monday instead of Tuesday... Sorry had wrong date...

 

[Andrew Khan]

This seems very curious to me. If the NWS, is really right, then it would sound like their would be some monter supercells, or multicells. I don't see anything on radar as of now.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

Andrew not talking about today (saturday) but Tuesday. Yes i see the ETA keeping this a little more westwardly and thats not cool. its still what 70- 84 hours out any way. The Favorable backed low level shear is not even in MI, but Northen IL and IA, Northern IN. At 250mb the strongest jet stays north of the low. While all other levels are very favorable in the Southern WI Eastern IA nothern IL, to the SW Michigan to the North western part of Indiana. Frankly if time allows i would rather chase SW of me. This state is so tree infested its not funny. lol. Im not getting my hopes up nor down ill stay nuetral. It would be nice to see a supercell again. But i'll take what i can get. i just hope work does not make a large confliction for this day.

Oh and the CAPE values dont look nearly as high as was mentioned by local CWA's.

I think since this day was brought up in TA it has been going down hill . How about we stop talking about it and let it run its course. :roll:

 

[Andrew Khan]

I understand, thanks Kurt. Their was a hazardous weather outlook for parts of MI, and IL. I looked under Grand Rapids, MI. I'm currently looking for some accurate surface analysis and forcast models. Yes it does seem to be more in the MN area or even the WI area.

 

[Jason Hetzel]

well if your looking for tornadoes here in MI on tuesday forget it. these are ALL derecho and bow setups and nothing more and they are classic. just like last year. you get a warm front strong undirectional shear and then a powerful cold front and they trigger the storms bow out then ride along the warm front. only good news is it does look to be a promising day for damaging winds so if you want wind then you have come to the right place. lol

 

[John Thurston]

Somebody have an update for this...........
I understand the models are not showing the mega T but still seems like we should get something with a cold front coming through 80 deg temps and Td in the 70's?

JT