07/13/04 NOW: MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY

[Zach Bailey]

severe thunderstorm warning up for northeast nebraska, looks like cells are starting to fire there and become organized. spc mentions mainly linear convection (bow) but can't rule out the possible embedded supercell given the instability the storms are headed into.

 

[rdale]

Looks like they are elevated storms which don't produce tornadoes... Also a supercell is not formed from high instability, but rotation in the atmosphere.

I'm surprised S WI isn't under a box yet, those cells are right on the southern edge of the current one and moving SE!

Still AMAZED at the turn the IL supercell made since initiation and the cirrus shield extending into MI!

 

[rdale]

"Clearly the situation in Illinois today. "

Agreed - clearly _not_ in Nebraska.

"Some very healthy supercells."

More proof in the pudding that radar imagery is not the end-all in the tornado warning process!

"High CAPE situations always get me excited, ever since I was a kid near Plainfield, 1990"

Yep - I remember being ready to take PSST (Purdue Severe Storms Team) on a nice chase that day and seeing nothing develop other than that storm!

- Rob

 

[mikegeukes]

Tornado Reports for Illinois:
0328 PM Roanoke in Woodford County
Tornado with debris on the west end of Roanoke

0252 PM 8 N Norrmal in Mc Lean County
Brief Tornado Touchdown at 1-30 and Lake Bloomington Road.

0243 PM 4W Roanoke in Woodford County
Large equipment plant destoryed.

0242 PM 1 S Eureka in Woodford
Tornado on the ground moving SE

1243 PM 3 W LA Moille in Bureau County
Birief Touchdown

Wisconsin Tornado Reports:
0346 PM Clarks Mills in Manitowoc County
0347 PM E Valders in Manitowoc County

Mike
http://mgweather.com

 

[Bob Schafer]

Echo tops were indicated at above 60K feet in C IL at 3:12 CDT.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Things developing nicely in WI for a derecho event later this evening across northeast IL/IN/MI/OH.

Latest ZFP for the Detroit Metro area -

...THEN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL DURING THE EVENING...

 

[rdale]

Air coming into the IL supercell has temps in the low-90's with dew points 76-80*! Ouch...

Can't wait for SPC to change their mode - the MI watch covers about the northern 3/4 of the LP when plotted, but the actual county list includes the entire LP! This isn't like debating counties on the line, the watch actually extended about 40 miles south of where the SPC line ends up!

 

[Robert Dewey]

Air coming into the IL supercell has temps in the low-90's with dew points 76-80*! Ouch...

Can't wait for SPC to change their mode - the MI watch covers about the northern 3/4 of the LP when plotted, but the actual county list includes the entire LP! This isn't like debating counties on the line, the watch actually extended about 40 miles south of where the SPC line ends up!

I noticed that as well. The actual watch line extends as far south as Detroit, yet the county list includeds includes counties not even touched by the watch line.

Also, what do you think about this activity in WI? It looks like it doesn't extend far enough SW to get into far southern lower MI... And WFO LOTs latest AFD doesn't look too promising... They say the threat is decreasing due to subsidence behind the supercells (which is visible on the VIS satellite image)... This may stop storms from backbuilding across northeastern IL.

 

[rdale]

If I lived in Benton Harbor I might be concerned, but anyone near a GRR - JXN - TTF line and north should be able to get some. Once the line gels it'll probably take more of a right turn along the theta gradient.

- Rob

 

[Wendy Johnson]

Sounds like a tornado is on the ground in Manitowoc County in Wisconsin. Can anyone confirm this? Heard the storm is moving very slowly. Possible funnel cloud on Lake Winnebago in Wisconsin. Pretty active day around this part of the state.

 

[rdale]

SVSGRB from that county says law enforcement is following a tornado.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'm gonna go grab something to eat, and check back in in about 1-2 hours, and hopefully be surprised by a nice derecho :lol: (hopefully)

 

[Jared Mysko]

Just so you guys know, this seems to be coming out of the same weather system that hit Edmonton on Sunday. TWN is now saying damage estimates will be in the "tens of millions of dollars" in Edmonton.

I've never seen softball size hail before but if I lived anywhere in that MDT area, I would be taking extreme caution when a storm approaches or when I approach it. Don't forget your titanium umbrellas today!

Take care everyone,

Jared

 

[mikegeukes]

Wow, NWS Davenport is quick in doing tornado surveys:

1245 PM TORNADO 1 N VAN ORIN 41.56N 89.35W
07/13/2004 F0 BUREAU IL NWS STORM SURVEY

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM FOUND MULTIPLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS FROM 1 MILE NORTH OF VAN ORIN...TO 1 MILE SOUTH OF VAN ORIN. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE ALONG THIS PATH, WHILE A MACHINE SHED WAS DESTROYED NORTH OF VAN ORIN AND A GRAIN BIN DAMAGED SOUTH OF VAN ORIN. AN EYEWITNESS REPORTED SEEING A ROPE LIKE TORNADO. A 4 INCH DIAMETER HAILSTONE WAS OBSERVED IN LA MOILLE.

Excellent work NWS Davenport.

Mike

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Looks like the storm complex in Indiana is beginning to bow, with the apex taking aim on Bloomington. I'm trying to decide if and where I should go videotape this.