07/07/04 NOW: Central Plains, East Coast, Canada

[Gabe Garfield]

18 tornado reports and counting...

Of course, most of those reports were probably from tornadoes that were reported multiple times. However, it's a good bet that at least half a dozen tornadoes touched down tonight in NC KS.

I am stunned that the SPC didn't issue a single tornado watch for this area. Storms have been going up and rotating all afternoon and then confirmed touchdowns were reported and still no TOR watch box. As Jeff mentioned, conditions are still favorable for tornadoes in NC KS. Big bust SPC...and this time, no one can claim there was no way they could see it coming. *shakes head*

Gabe

 

[rdale]

"Big bust SPC...and this time, no one can claim there was no way they could see it coming."

Based on the fact that the FORECAST thread is void of any discussions about tornadoes (or even chase-able severe) in that area - it appears MANY people didn't see this coming.

It was a bit of a surprise that the second watch was just SVR based on the TOR reports but in the overall scheme they did have a severe thunderstorm watch up well in advance of all the action...

- Rob

 

[Ben Prusia]

I have a report from my Russell, KS (I witnessed what appeared to be at least 2 different anti-cyclonic tornadoes from the same cell, with a pretty nice looking meso to go along) chase for 7/7/2004 and will post tomorrow! Look for pictures and a report when I get back from work (around 3-ish on Thursday), I am dead tired as I am writing this.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

"Based on the fact that the FORECAST thread is void of any discussions about tornadoes (or even chase-able severe) in that area - it appears MANY people didn't see this coming."

I agree, most people didn't recognize this as a potential event early on. However, the trend was obvious...the first tornado warning was issued 10 minutes BEFORE the first severe thunderstorm watch...at 2:10 p.m. That cell (near Beloit) was tornadic for about 2.5 hrs, after which it weakened. Even still, CAPEs were extreme, shear was sufficient, and a boundary was present.

At any rate, my point is that the trend was VERY obvious...the safe thing would have been to issue a tornado watch. If it busted, big deal. I have seen SPC bust bigger before...anyone remember the PDS Tornado Watch in the TX panhandle in early June that had zero tornado reports? I think (given SPC/NWS policies on the subject) it is better to err on the side of caution than to let a small, yet potentially significant event fall through the cracks.

Gabe

 

[rdale]

Gotcha - I was just going on the SPC log which has first tornado at 3:30pm vs warning issuance time. I'd say "big bust" if they had no watch at all, SVR vs TOR watch is a very fine line and one that results in no differences for the end-user so I don't say "little bust" either ;>

- Rob