07/07/04 NOW: Central Plains, East Coast, Canada

Larry J. Kosch

Starting a NOW thread for 07/07/04 due to severe weather firing up in different places. A SWW watch has been posted for NE and KS. There is already a supercell storm crossing the NE-KS border near Superior NE into Jewell County in KS. There is a SWW watch set up for the East Coast. And I understand there is storm action firing up in yonder Canada. Post your storm discussions here. 8)

Update: TORN warning in Jewell County KS:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
215 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WARNING FOR JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 315 PM CDT

AT 211 PM CDT, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURR OAK, .OR ABOUT 43 MILES SOUTH OF HASTINGS, AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
 
Supercell moving SE

That supercell storm in Jewell County KS is moving SE into Cloud County. Looks to me it will brush just to the west of Concordia KS. It had just engulfed two smaller storms like they were bait fish!! :shock: Better keep an eye on this storm while it's getting organized for tornadic action! 8)
 
Supercell Storm Near Concordia

NWS has continued their radar-indicated TORN warning for that supercell storm near Concordia KS:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
312 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WARNING FOR JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 415 PM CDT

AT 309 PM CDT, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR JEWELL, OR ABOUT 29 MILES
WEST OF CONCORDIA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
 
Interesting that the maximum length of a Tornado Warning is 45 minutes yet both of these are over an hour, guess some offices can write their own rules.

Oh wait - wrong thread ;>

- Rob
 
Supercell in NE?

Don't look now but there may be another supercell brewing in NE! :shock: There's a nice storm shaping up super-cell like in Seward County in NE. It's blowing its way thru Seward NE right now and heading SE into the SW corner of Lancaster County. If that sounds familar to some of you storm chasers, it should. Hallam NE is located in that corner of that county!!
Let's hope we don't get a repeat of that tragic day back in May!! :shock:

Update: Opps! Spoke too soon! It's already outflow dominant and in the process of collasping. Sorry about the false alarm.
It did look circular and strong for a bit... :oops: I'll shut up for the rest of the afternoon!!
 
"a nice storm shaping up super-cell like in Seward County in NE."

I'm not sure I understand - it either is a supercell or it isn't, I'm not sure how a storm can be "like" a supercell?

Similar to a Skywarn spotter report from yesterday here in Lansing - "I see a funnel cloud rotating overhead, it doesn't look like a funnel though."

Hmmm...

- Rob
 
Kansas Severe Weather Highlights today: Updated: 1050 PM CDT
-70 mph winds in Barton and Russell Counties
-73 mph winds in Mitchell County
-80 mph winds in Russell County
-89 mph wimds in Beloit KS (Mitchell County)
-Thunderstorm Winds did damage in Beloit KS (Mitchell County)
-2.50 inch hail in Ellis, Ottawa, Russell Counties
-2.75 inch hail in Osborne, Phillips Counties
-4.00 inch hail in Phillips County
-5 report of a Tornado in Barton County
-2 report of a Tornado in Ellis County
-1 report of a Tornado in Mitchell County
-1 report of a Tornado in Rooks County
-8 reports of Tornadoes in Russell County

Around 18-19 Tornado Warnings today and tonight.

Mike
 
That tornado warned storm and its tennis ball sized hail is making a direct line for Salina.. :shock: Heads up to that interstate town!
 
KS Storm now a dying swan

That supercell storm that dropped hail and a brief tornado in Mitchell County KS is now doing a "dying swan" act. It may not make it to Salina KS before it drops off the radar screen. But goodness :shock: look at the line of storms firing up right behind that. :shock: It's streaching from Concordia to Hays KS and moving SE.

Just had a nice thundershower move thru Lincoln NE. Nothing to write home or get the storm chasers excited about. OK I said I would be quiet. Starting now... 8)
 
This thread sure died quickly. they all must of jumped in the cruiser and headed to kansas. :lol: since the storm doesn't seem to want to die.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILL CITY
KANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF RUSSELL KANSAS.
 
Some towers started going up in W WV and quickly died. While I was out I had WxWorx running and decided to take a look at Kansas. The cells north of Hays have *nineteen* shear markers, massive cores, and big blobs of 'shear' maxed out on the Baron display. A few shear markers showed 138MPH values. Three counties are tornado warned. Looks nasty - and fun. Probably some spectacular structure and lightning with these.
 
0850 PM TORNADO 7 SSE BUNKER HILL 38.78N 98.65W
07/07/2004 RUSSELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

CLASSIC CONE SHAPED TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND.
 
Per SPC mesoanalysis, those storms in KS are in an environment characterized by 3000-4000 SBCAPE and 350-500 m2/s2 0-3km helicity (yielding 0-3km EHI's ~12)... The boundary layer is beginning to stabilize due to the setting sun, so the convection will likely become increasingly elevated... However, if convection can remain surface-based, the tornado potential should continue as low-level shear and instability remain very favorable for tornadogenesis..

Given this, I'm not entirely sure of the lack of tornado potential in various discussions... Granted it'll hard to maintain surface-based parcel origins, but the environment is primed and surface-based convection has been occurring for several hours...
 
18 tornado reports and counting...

Of course, most of those reports were probably from tornadoes that were reported multiple times. However, it's a good bet that at least half a dozen tornadoes touched down tonight in NC KS.

I am stunned that the SPC didn't issue a single tornado watch for this area. Storms have been going up and rotating all afternoon and then confirmed touchdowns were reported and still no TOR watch box. As Jeff mentioned, conditions are still favorable for tornadoes in NC KS. Big bust SPC...and this time, no one can claim there was no way they could see it coming. *shakes head*

Gabe
 
"Big bust SPC...and this time, no one can claim there was no way they could see it coming."

Based on the fact that the FORECAST thread is void of any discussions about tornadoes (or even chase-able severe) in that area - it appears MANY people didn't see this coming.

It was a bit of a surprise that the second watch was just SVR based on the TOR reports but in the overall scheme they did have a severe thunderstorm watch up well in advance of all the action...

- Rob
 
I have a report from my Russell, KS (I witnessed what appeared to be at least 2 different anti-cyclonic tornadoes from the same cell, with a pretty nice looking meso to go along) chase for 7/7/2004 and will post tomorrow! Look for pictures and a report when I get back from work (around 3-ish on Thursday), I am dead tired as I am writing this.
 
"Based on the fact that the FORECAST thread is void of any discussions about tornadoes (or even chase-able severe) in that area - it appears MANY people didn't see this coming."

I agree, most people didn't recognize this as a potential event early on. However, the trend was obvious...the first tornado warning was issued 10 minutes BEFORE the first severe thunderstorm watch...at 2:10 p.m. That cell (near Beloit) was tornadic for about 2.5 hrs, after which it weakened. Even still, CAPEs were extreme, shear was sufficient, and a boundary was present.

At any rate, my point is that the trend was VERY obvious...the safe thing would have been to issue a tornado watch. If it busted, big deal. I have seen SPC bust bigger before...anyone remember the PDS Tornado Watch in the TX panhandle in early June that had zero tornado reports? I think (given SPC/NWS policies on the subject) it is better to err on the side of caution than to let a small, yet potentially significant event fall through the cracks.

Gabe
 
Gotcha - I was just going on the SPC log which has first tornado at 3:30pm vs warning issuance time. I'd say "big bust" if they had no watch at all, SVR vs TOR watch is a very fine line and one that results in no differences for the end-user so I don't say "little bust" either ;>

- Rob
 
Back
Top