Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase target:
30 miles E of Limon, CO.
Timing:
Storm initiation 4PM CDT (3PM MDT).
Storm type:
Isolated supercells early in storm evolution, with storms evolving into a large MCS during the evening hours with very heavy rains the primary hazard.
Discussion:
Complicated FCST with MCS underway in KS/NE/WY/NERN CO… Models hint at an outflow-enhanced backdoor front stalling out near the Palmer divide by 21Z, with ERLY flow to the east of this feature and a high theta-E ridge wedged against the Front Range. Given broad ridging coupled with a lack of forcing mechanisms aloft, upslope flow and forcing along the boundary should serve as the primary storm initiation focuses. MLCAPE’s to 2500J/kg and (0-3km) SRH’s locally to 200m^2/s^2 near the boundary will support supercells shortly after initiation in the front range and Palmer Divide areas as a Denver cyclone develops. Given slow storm motion, very weak mid-level winds, and lack of upper-level support, storms will evolve into a large convective cluster and track slowly to the SE.
- bill
30 miles E of Limon, CO.
Timing:
Storm initiation 4PM CDT (3PM MDT).
Storm type:
Isolated supercells early in storm evolution, with storms evolving into a large MCS during the evening hours with very heavy rains the primary hazard.
Discussion:
Complicated FCST with MCS underway in KS/NE/WY/NERN CO… Models hint at an outflow-enhanced backdoor front stalling out near the Palmer divide by 21Z, with ERLY flow to the east of this feature and a high theta-E ridge wedged against the Front Range. Given broad ridging coupled with a lack of forcing mechanisms aloft, upslope flow and forcing along the boundary should serve as the primary storm initiation focuses. MLCAPE’s to 2500J/kg and (0-3km) SRH’s locally to 200m^2/s^2 near the boundary will support supercells shortly after initiation in the front range and Palmer Divide areas as a Denver cyclone develops. Given slow storm motion, very weak mid-level winds, and lack of upper-level support, storms will evolve into a large convective cluster and track slowly to the SE.
- bill