Anthony Silver
EF4
Glen Romine Wrote: " had felt this way earlier - but that was before I thought it would end up as strong as it is and as far west as it has moved. If you follow the trends in the low level jet strength over the progressive model runs - there has been a substatial hit that has eveolved owing to the loss of pressure/height gradient west of Arlene. Combined with other unfavorable trends in forecast evolution, this is a brutal hit for significant tornado potential with the OK/KS system if the NAM forecast evolution is going to be realized. So, you a) hope the solution is bad -or- B) plan to chase HP weakly tornadic supercells. Maybe this morning's runs will start to rebound and give a more optimistic outlook."
Upon looking at the latest model runs...I've decided to keep my mouth shut and will wait and see what evolves tomorrow. The MCS that is expected to affect the region tonight may have an adverse outcome on what develops tomorrow afternoon. However, I am keeping a close eye on Eastern KS and Western MO for the overnight hours tomorrow. It appears that a rather significant nocturnal severe event could affect the region at that time. Concerning Glen's earlier comment about the tropical system... I have noticed a slightly westward shift in the track as it made landfall. It appears now that the remnants will eventually affect the upper midwest, say around Illinois and Indiana. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that it doesnt shift any further west than it already has, or we could say bye bye to the tornado potential tomorrow.
Upon looking at the latest model runs...I've decided to keep my mouth shut and will wait and see what evolves tomorrow. The MCS that is expected to affect the region tonight may have an adverse outcome on what develops tomorrow afternoon. However, I am keeping a close eye on Eastern KS and Western MO for the overnight hours tomorrow. It appears that a rather significant nocturnal severe event could affect the region at that time. Concerning Glen's earlier comment about the tropical system... I have noticed a slightly westward shift in the track as it made landfall. It appears now that the remnants will eventually affect the upper midwest, say around Illinois and Indiana. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that it doesnt shift any further west than it already has, or we could say bye bye to the tornado potential tomorrow.
