Ben Prusia
EF4
12Z NAM showing a 995mb surface Low Pressure system and associated triple point heading into central Kansas at 0Z Monday. Dryline is progged running down from the Low Pressure to just east of the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. Moisture, being really cut back from the new Tropical System in the Gulf is progged to be around 60-65 degrees throughout Kansas and Oklahoma, and appears to be a modified continental air mass at the moment. Thus with lower moisture availability, SBCAPE values will be much lower, in the range of around 2000 J/Kg, but there will be modest CIN in KS and OK. ENE of the associated triple point, progged 0-6km shear values of 50 kts will be located throughout NC Kansas. SRH in front of the dryline, with good 0-3km values of near 500 m2/s2 in NC Kansas. A factor that may help initation will be the better support of winds at the 850/700/500mb levels, with progged 850mb winds of 30-50 kts to the south-southeast to due south in central KS running into OK, and progged 500mb winds to the south-southwest at or near 50kts for most of central KS and Oklahoma. Much better turning will be located up in NC Kansas, thus better shear. Looks like NC Kansas, at least along and north of Interstate 70, south of a progged warm front and east of the Colby/Oakley areas are a good bet as of this time.
Graphic for this forecast up at "My Chase Forecasts" below.
Graphic for this forecast up at "My Chase Forecasts" below.