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05/31/05 FCST: Mid Atlantic

I dare post a fcst 5 days in advance, but this is the best thing I've seen in a while this season in the eastern US, if it holds any ground...

Looking at the 132, 144, and 156 hr GFS: Showing a negatively tilted 250mb trough moving eastward from the upper midwest to the northeast, with a 60kt 500mb SW jet nosing into the mid atlantic by evening on the 31st. Surface low progged to deepen significantly as it rides the southern edge of the 250 trough from the lower Mississippi valley to the northeast through the period, backing the surface winds in the mid atlantic to the SE through the day on the 31st, under SW 850 winds aoa 40kts. The 65 degree dewpoint line progged to move to the northern mid atlantic by 00z 6/1. The negative factor in all this is that the surface temps are forecasted to max out in the 65-70 degree east/ese of the surface low where the strongest shear would be. Thus, even though this would make for low LCLs, the instability side of the equation doesn't look very promising (This is the last day of May?)
Never underestimate the power of low LCL.

I am in OH and given the chance I would head south for decent shear and low LCL. As Iowa showed us last weak that is one way for surprise tor action.

Keep an eye on this pattern.

Tom Hanlon