05/28/2007 NOW: SD/ND

[Jason Persoff]

Sitting in Selby, SD. Slow cell connection.

Looking at current mesoanalysis the sfc winds are parallel to the front leading to a total lack of convergence. However, winds at the sfc just north of here appear to be backing possibly in response to a mesolow (?) with some winds behind this feature rotating more westerly enhancing some convergence. 3500 J/Kg CAPE in this area (and just south) looks great. Theoretical hodographs, however, show very little rotation with height and no speed shear.

While folks are up along I-94, I'm mighty interested in staying put as it looks like things could organize here before dusk.

As I write, a small convergent cu field is popping up just to the north of Selby. It's the 5:00 hour, folks. Who knows?

 

[Bob Schafer]

Looking at last hour's mesoanalysis (22Z), I would have expected first initiation near SD/ND state line NW of Aberdeen given convergence and 300mb divergence, but it looks like towers are going up N and NW of Fargo, instead.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Currently just a few miles southeast of Grafton, ND on I-29. The towers are very soft and significantly struggling. Glad we have daylight here until nearly 9:30 PM, there is still apparantly some inhibition here yet.

Hoping we don't have to go into Canada...

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Currently sitting in Grafton, ND. Followed the initial cluster of cells, but they are stll showing lack of organization. New cell is going up to our SW... grabbing a bite to eat and will monitor situation. Following initial cell if it does get its act together may be problamatic since several of my friends can't go into Canada.

Aaron

 

[Brett Adair]

Looks like the significant mid level inhibition is still present.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Interesting situation in NE I had considered running out there today after I opted out of the Dakota chase but decided it was not in my best interest, however there is now a Tornado warning in Hayes County. That same area has been recieving storms all afternoon, radar currently estimates nearly 10 inches has fallen across the county and I see no end to the rain in the near future. Going to be some really severe localized flooding.

EDIT: Looks as though storm to the West of torn warned storm is also rotating

EDIT: The cell to the West just went tornado warned as well, it does have a decent little couplet.

 

[Chris Hovanic]

Beginning the long trek from Jamestown, ND to Grand Island, NE...targetting OK/TX Panhandle tomorrow...

Too much inhibition today...disappointing to drive all the way north for nothing...RUC mesoanalysis has been pretty disappointing today, 0z BIS sounding yields a very strong cap with ~350 J/KG MLCINH...0z RUC analysis indicated at most 100 J/KG MLCINH.

Good luck to all those in SW SD and NE.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Apprently the first cell managed to get its act together and put down a tube near the border. Storm had a bit of a back-sheared anvil but didn't look too impressive. Back in GFK now. Doh.

 

[Willoughby Owen]

Yes, we targeted this day all the way back in Limon, CO two days ago... what a bust this is! In Jamestown, ND now... did see some strong towering cumulus though, but that was it. =/

 

[Richard Halter]

Got to southern SD

Myself, Chuck Vlcek and Steve Flood spent a few hours in s central SD, before we decided that most of the severe was going to stay west, into the Black Hills. We were not quite right, as the storms did end up moving along I-90 about right to where we were, but in chosing to go south to the large complex between North Platte and McCook, we were treated to severe, massive precip, excellent storm structure and a lightning show to make a chase almost totally worthwhile.

Ended up shooting a lot of video, and the storm really put out wall cloud after wall cloud and frequent scudnados. I am pretty sure that there had to be several calls for funnels into the NWS, but since this was all happening within about 30 miles of the N Platte radar, the guys there could see that there really wasn't much spin. Had there been it would have been tornado after tornado, but that was too much to hope for.