Hey gang! Good morning! Ready for a fun day in Colorado today! Looks like it'll be a doozy! Here's my morning analysis brought to you in part by the Mellow Yellow I smuggled out of Central Nebraska last week!
RUC ANALYSIS
Upslope, good CAPE, decent SRH; sturdy cap, but breakable. RUC shows very good parameters setting up across Eastern Colorado. CAPE values shows awesome amounts for our altitude with values over 2000 over most of Eastern Colorado by 0z. Worth noting that at 21z, there's a value progged at 3581 just to the southwest of Burlington! How's that for crazy! Higher values shift eastward from 21z to 0z, but more than enough for storms back west to fire and then move into higher values. Helicity values dot various areas along the foothills. Its strange, but they look as if they're centered near Ft. Collins, Denver, Colorado Springs, and Pueblo; not sure why those bullseyes are arranged that way, but they are according to the RUC. Values in these bullseyes range from 200 to 500 at 21z and down to 150 to 350 at 0z. A capping issue may create some problems at some point, however the RUC shows no cap at 21z over the Front Range and by 0z, shifts it to points east. 700mb temps are a bit higher than I'd like to see with values in the low teens across all of Eastern Colorado, but high temps today combined with the moisture we're suppose to see should be enough to overcome the cap. We couldn't ask for better moisture up here with values in the 50s and 60s! Thetea-E values look reasonable, and decrease through 700mb, so that's looking good, too. The RUC breaks out precip west of I-25 at 21z then fills an east/west band from Denver to about Yuma between the interstates.
15z SFC analysis shows low 60s dewpoints in Southeastern Colorado and mid to upper 50s east of Denver! Wow (for us)! Southeasterly winds will stream moisture in throughout the day today and keep us in an upslope pattern. We should do well today.
The ETA isn't so optomistic with those values, but I'm having a hard time believing models much these days anyway. This is Colorado; when this setup brings itself about, you chase.. PERIOD!
A target for today, I would says south of Akron wouldn't be bad, however you're in a data hole with no real chance for Wifi access. However, there is a library in Akron if you wanna old school it. Its at 302 Main Ave and should be open through the early evening hours.
Today looks like it'll play out further east with tomorrow likely being the better of the two days for Eastern Colorado. I'd be content with both setups, to be perfectly honest, and there's nothing that would keep me sitting at home for today's. I'm a bit concerned as NWS Denver has really played this setup down, not making mention in AFDs or HWOs even as SPC has thrown all sorts of odds over Eastern Colorado. I'm not sure why there is discrepency in this, but I guess they're making it so we have to make our own decisions! However, I am pretty confident that the best shows will happen east of a Buckingham/Roggen/Byers line, probably closer to I-76 as opposed to I-70 with better dynamics further north and the chance that storms will last well after dark up there.
Jon V and I should be on the road by noon up along I-76, likely stopping in Fort Morgan for data and maybe a southward adjustment in either direction from there.
Good luck to all out there today and I hope we see you all out there!