Mike Johnston
EF5
Some marginal chances for severe weather here in the Mid-Atlantic states today. Prog of decent surface heating seems to be emerging, via satellite obs and direct obs here in Richmond. Interesting, much of the morning cu is appearing to take on a lenticular shape....not sure if this is a matter of CIN vs. some mid-level shear or waves from last night's convection over OH valley that isn't readily apparent. No doubt that some strong deep layer shear is moving our way, w/ td's and surface-based CAPE slowly but steadily on the increase, and low-level lapse rates of 8.5 may be come even steeper this afternoon.
The obvious negative condition is the lack of prospect for backing surface winds today. As a matter of fact, the whole of the flow seems to be very uni-directional. I'm still hopefull the approaching surface boundary, which is fairly vigorous, will spur enough convergence underneath an obvious upper-level diffluent condition such as to initiate a few supercells in the area. Surface low in northern Great Lakes continues to dominate the lower level winds, so some hope for any surface backing around here is just that - a hope. At any rate, will keep eyes and ears open today for any prospect of a chase.
The obvious negative condition is the lack of prospect for backing surface winds today. As a matter of fact, the whole of the flow seems to be very uni-directional. I'm still hopefull the approaching surface boundary, which is fairly vigorous, will spur enough convergence underneath an obvious upper-level diffluent condition such as to initiate a few supercells in the area. Surface low in northern Great Lakes continues to dominate the lower level winds, so some hope for any surface backing around here is just that - a hope. At any rate, will keep eyes and ears open today for any prospect of a chase.
