05/14/04 NOW: Great Lakes


Embedded cell in SW Mich riding up the front and rapidly developed a strong circulation, 60-70kts of shear across it! Tops only 20-25K, not the best environment for storm spotting!
Just southwest of Kazoo right now... The circulation has broadened out just a bit, and IWX just cancelled the severe for Cass with no reports.
The watch kind of caught me by surprise, I thought maybe we were just in for a rainy day. Not that the contrast in temps isn't sufficient, but it just seemed to stall out just west of me. We haven't seen the sun all day, but the heating is still in place. I guess we'll see what happens.
I surveyed the damage from the Clinton Co TOR -- it came from a cell which had been showing mid-level rotation and occasional low-level forever. By the time it transitioned into a line / bow then it dropped an F0 over Clinton Co, quiet over Gratiot and an F1 over Saginaw!
I was somewhat surprised by that...But it does make a little sense. The storm moved into an area of SSE winds, rather than the SSW/SW winds a bit further west. The VAD from DTX also showed good backing as well, with a 50knt jet at ~5K feet. I think if instability would have been higher, a pretty good outbreak would have occured across MI yesterday...

Now our next event to watch is this upcoming Monday or Tuesday...Should I make a thread?