05/12/05 TALK: Southern/Central Plains/Caprock

[Jason Montano]

I am leaving Hays in a few minutes heading towards Childress I believe. It looks as though there may be some severe on the caprock today and since I busted there a couple of days ago I will try again...

 

[nickgrillo]

I'm currently departing Garden City, KS and I'm heading towards Woodwark, OK... Today looks pretty decent...

 

[Glen Romine]

Not too excited about today's prospects for tornadoes from the way things look this morning. Feeling too lazy to give a full forecast discussion, but thoughts are that best chance for a tornado today may be closer to the surface cyclone which will be around the OMA area this evening. Will need considerable recovery of thermodynamics following morning convection, but RUC also optmistic in building up narrow instability axis up the MO River valley, and I can see this perhaps happening, and low-level shear looks pretty reasonable, with relative long hodographs. storms might cross too far north of the warm front to sustain surface-based inflow - but I like this area as a potential sleeper for later today.

Glen

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Looking at RUC, I like south of OMA, near the KS NE border. RUC even breaks out convective precip there by 21Z. 'Course, I only like it because it's so close, but how can you say no to 3000+ progged CAPE?

*edit* Actually, 2,500 CAPE

 

[Morgan Palmer]

In that area, it appears the AMA 88D is down and warnings are being transmitted through Lubbock. Any idea what's going on there?

11:35am, 88D images are once again coming down, but the warnings are still being relayed by LBB

 

[Jeff Miller]

ne/ia

Take a read from the OMAHA new AFD: According to Omaha NWS the SPC is considering updating portions of EASTERN NEBRASKA and SW IOWA to a MODERATE RISK (pushing the slight risk back as well)....

read the latest AFD from omaha for details, but this might be a heads up for nebraska/iowa chasers still in the area...thunderstorms are expected to redevelop in east nebraska this afternoon and may become severe.

 

[Douglas Mitchell]

Sitting in the parking lot of Dillons in Salina, KS. Got up at 6am to try and do the marathon chase from Kearney to TX Panhandle, but it's already firing down there and its only noon. Liking my prospects just east of here near the KS/NE border. Will mosey over there and hope for the best. Tor potential looks slim, but having a tornado today would only make sense to make up for the Particularl y Disappointing Situations the last 2 days.

 

[Glen Romine]

Guess SPC also liked the northern option - so time to pick a pair of targets I guess for the northern and southern plays. First, the north: Outflow from morning convection looks to hold the northward progress of the warm front/outflow boundary, while the cold front continues to slowly march eastward recently passing Salina. Surface circulation currently up near O'Neill, NE, but warm front intersects the cold front down closer to GRI, with the outflow intersecting the front around Clay Center. Would like to stay in the zone between the outflow and warm front - as it slides through southwest NE, ahead of the cold front - so the area around Lincoln NE is looking interesting to me. For the southern option, appears that a spur of easterlies will develop on the southern edge of the cold front - and appears to be stalling out just south of Morton TX, and new convection north of Lubbock is now forming pretty close to the surface boundary. Impressive EHI values expected in the Childress vicinity this evening - but unclear that any storms will be able to take advantage of it. Weak dryline push south of the spur should keep storms developing in the region near Lubbock - so I'll pick Floydada for now and see how things evolve.

Glen

 

[Billy Griffin]

I'm liking the Childress, TX area !! There is a very pronounced outflow boundary "scootin" westward on a direct collision course with the cold front that should meet up somewhere in the Hollis, OK ~ Childress, TX areas.

Plus, I like the, somewhat, clearing skies behind this outflow boundary which appears to be backing the surface winds according to the OK mesonet in SW Oklahoma.

Think I'll target that area today, as I just don't have the energy to make a drive all the way to Lubbock and I still think northern Oklahoma is a wash, literally. Big rain event probably for northern OK.

Again, my bet is on SW Oklahoma, SE Texas panhandle.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

the salina emporia ks area looks to have the best surface heating/terrain. The dry line is very pronounced there. I did not the down grade, but due to nw mo, se ne road situation, I will gamble on a more southern route. Tx,ok is too far for me though.

 

[Anthony Petito]

Re: ne/ia

Originally posted by Jeffrey Miller
Take a read from the OMAHA new AFD: According to Omaha NWS the SPC is considering updating portions of EASTERN NEBRASKA and SW IOWA to a MODERATE RISK (pushing the slight risk back as well)....

read the latest AFD from omaha for details, but this might be a heads up for nebraska/iowa chasers still in the area...thunderstorms are expected to redevelop in east nebraska this afternoon and may become severe.

SPC did indeed go to a MDT risk for SE NE and SW IA. They are mainly progged to stay south of I-80, but I would put a line south of the Platte river. So far today, it has been completely cloudy, however, latest satellite vis image shows some clearing Cu alreayd in SE NE.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

MD out for northern target area: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0839.html

Today is quite conditional and after yesterday I'm suspicious again ... but it's in the backyard so I'm charging the batteries just in case.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Topping off the tank in Nebraska City about to head west and maybe south a bit further. Interesting little setup in here.

 

[Adam Atkins]

Nice

I'm surprised nobody's mentioned the storm that appears to be rooted on the CF north of Lubbock. The VIL is maxed out at 65 with 50,000 ft echo tops. This is the first surface based storm of the day and has a well-defined hook echo, but no low level convergence couplet or inflow notch at this time. This could be the storm of the day if nothing fires farther north due to the elevated cells in the blue box. This might track all the way into SW OK eventually and cause mass chaser convergence.

Storm looks to be turning right into better moisture air adding to the meager storm relative helicity, could go tornadic.

 

[JHadorn]

Red box just issued for my area. Will be heading out . . . just as soon as my laundry gets done. :?