05/12/05 TALK: Southern/Central Plains/Caprock

I am leaving Hays in a few minutes heading towards Childress I believe. It looks as though there may be some severe on the caprock today and since I busted there a couple of days ago I will try again...
 
Not too excited about today's prospects for tornadoes from the way things look this morning. Feeling too lazy to give a full forecast discussion, but thoughts are that best chance for a tornado today may be closer to the surface cyclone which will be around the OMA area this evening. Will need considerable recovery of thermodynamics following morning convection, but RUC also optmistic in building up narrow instability axis up the MO River valley, and I can see this perhaps happening, and low-level shear looks pretty reasonable, with relative long hodographs. storms might cross too far north of the warm front to sustain surface-based inflow - but I like this area as a potential sleeper for later today.

Glen
 
Looking at RUC, I like south of OMA, near the KS NE border. RUC even breaks out convective precip there by 21Z. 'Course, I only like it because it's so close, but how can you say no to 3000+ progged CAPE?

*edit* Actually, 2,500 CAPE
 
In that area, it appears the AMA 88D is down and warnings are being transmitted through Lubbock. Any idea what's going on there?

11:35am, 88D images are once again coming down, but the warnings are still being relayed by LBB
 
ne/ia

Take a read from the OMAHA new AFD: According to Omaha NWS the SPC is considering updating portions of EASTERN NEBRASKA and SW IOWA to a MODERATE RISK (pushing the slight risk back as well)....

read the latest AFD from omaha for details, but this might be a heads up for nebraska/iowa chasers still in the area...thunderstorms are expected to redevelop in east nebraska this afternoon and may become severe.
 
Sitting in the parking lot of Dillons in Salina, KS. Got up at 6am to try and do the marathon chase from Kearney to TX Panhandle, but it's already firing down there and its only noon. Liking my prospects just east of here near the KS/NE border. Will mosey over there and hope for the best. Tor potential looks slim, but having a tornado today would only make sense to make up for the Particularl y Disappointing Situations the last 2 days.
 
Guess SPC also liked the northern option - so time to pick a pair of targets I guess for the northern and southern plays. First, the north: Outflow from morning convection looks to hold the northward progress of the warm front/outflow boundary, while the cold front continues to slowly march eastward recently passing Salina. Surface circulation currently up near O'Neill, NE, but warm front intersects the cold front down closer to GRI, with the outflow intersecting the front around Clay Center. Would like to stay in the zone between the outflow and warm front - as it slides through southwest NE, ahead of the cold front - so the area around Lincoln NE is looking interesting to me. For the southern option, appears that a spur of easterlies will develop on the southern edge of the cold front - and appears to be stalling out just south of Morton TX, and new convection north of Lubbock is now forming pretty close to the surface boundary. Impressive EHI values expected in the Childress vicinity this evening - but unclear that any storms will be able to take advantage of it. Weak dryline push south of the spur should keep storms developing in the region near Lubbock - so I'll pick Floydada for now and see how things evolve.

Glen
 
I'm liking the Childress, TX area !! There is a very pronounced outflow boundary "scootin" westward on a direct collision course with the cold front that should meet up somewhere in the Hollis, OK ~ Childress, TX areas.

Plus, I like the, somewhat, clearing skies behind this outflow boundary which appears to be backing the surface winds according to the OK mesonet in SW Oklahoma.

Think I'll target that area today, as I just don't have the energy to make a drive all the way to Lubbock and I still think northern Oklahoma is a wash, literally. Big rain event probably for northern OK.

Again, my bet is on SW Oklahoma, SE Texas panhandle.
 
the salina emporia ks area looks to have the best surface heating/terrain. The dry line is very pronounced there. I did not the down grade, but due to nw mo, se ne road situation, I will gamble on a more southern route. Tx,ok is too far for me though.
 
Re: ne/ia

Originally posted by Jeffrey Miller
Take a read from the OMAHA new AFD: According to Omaha NWS the SPC is considering updating portions of EASTERN NEBRASKA and SW IOWA to a MODERATE RISK (pushing the slight risk back as well)....

read the latest AFD from omaha for details, but this might be a heads up for nebraska/iowa chasers still in the area...thunderstorms are expected to redevelop in east nebraska this afternoon and may become severe.

SPC did indeed go to a MDT risk for SE NE and SW IA. They are mainly progged to stay south of I-80, but I would put a line south of the Platte river. So far today, it has been completely cloudy, however, latest satellite vis image shows some clearing Cu alreayd in SE NE.
 
Topping off the tank in Nebraska City about to head west and maybe south a bit further. Interesting little setup in here.
 
Nice

I'm surprised nobody's mentioned the storm that appears to be rooted on the CF north of Lubbock. The VIL is maxed out at 65 with 50,000 ft echo tops. This is the first surface based storm of the day and has a well-defined hook echo, but no low level convergence couplet or inflow notch at this time. This could be the storm of the day if nothing fires farther north due to the elevated cells in the blue box. This might track all the way into SW OK eventually and cause mass chaser convergence.

Storm looks to be turning right into better moisture air adding to the meager storm relative helicity, could go tornadic.
 
I'm about ready to head north to the Leavenworth area and then west to around Holton, which is just north of the boundary that has prompted a tornado watch for northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. Good luck everyone!

EDIT: I saved myself from another bust, storms turned into a line way too fast, good thing I waited around monitoring the radar loops from EAX, TWX, and ICT
 
Line is forming near Beatrice to the south just west of Hiawatha, Kansas. Going to head over to this line soon, as the individual cells appear to have the potential to take on supercell characteristics and are moving into favorable sheared environment. Nice temp/TD spread on this boundary.
 
Re: Nice

Originally posted by Adam Atkins
I'm surprised nobody's mentioned the storm that appears to be rooted on the CF north of Lubbock.....Storm looks to be turning right into better moisture air adding to the meager storm relative helicity, could go tornadic.

It has a great radar presentation - but is riding on a northward kink in the cold front - which arches back to the east the next county row north. If this cell is going to get it done - it will have to do so quickly. Suspect this is a routine that will be followed by several more cells - generating in the same area - and fighting to cross over to the warm side - kicking the cold front a hair further southeast with each successive event. Will be fun to watch what happens.

Glen
 
Yep

Let the madness begin. Tornado Warning north of Lubbock and east of Plainview, TX, for Hale County. Velocity scans in low levels don't pick up much rotation but that could be due to the location of the radar relative to the storm location.
 
Originally posted by Mike Peregrine
Line is forming near Beatrice to the south just west of Hiawatha, Kansas.

Line is right! Boy, this region is filling in fast. Trying to find a region more favrobable for some discrete action - and it eludes me at the moment. Cell near Beattie appears to have the best thermodynamic environment, but won't encounter favorable low-level winds for about an hour - and there is a lot of surrounding activity. Hopefully cells will sort themselves out shortly. Good luck to those out chasing this area (Guess that is Mike P&H, Ben and JH).

Glen
 
Ken Fugate, Mike Bak, and myself are in Childress right now. We will be leaving here within the next 5 mins heading westward hopefully to intercept the tornado warned storm a few counties west of here!
 
Cell coming out of Maryville, KS and into Tecumseh (Pawnee County) seems to be spreading itself out in front of the other cells. I would keep on eye on this one.
 
heading west to meet up with marcus opitz in topeka within an hour hour and a half.......6 hours of daylight..........here we go!!!!!!!! good luck to all.........we're gonna try and play west of topeka where terrain will be more flat (north of holton and west of atchison sucks!) good luck to all.........
 
Unfortunately I will not be chasing today even though it's in my backyard. I've made some promises that I'll only leave the office if called out by the county. It looks to be a rain/hail event primarily, I'm not sure you could get a discrete cell out of any of that mess.

I think SE KS could see a better chance for discrete cells later on. Good luck to all, and watch for localized flooding out here after yesterday's rains!! It gets pretty hilly up there with poor drainage along some of the roads!

Tim
 
Looks like the southern edge of the southern complex (KS) might be the best hope at this point for the action in this area. Cell now west of Seneca still showing poor organization - but is likely ingesting relatively clean inflow - with increasing low-level helicity over the next hour. Other cells trail this one - offer perhaps a second chance intercept with the cluster. Appears the Falls City could offer a place to watch - with easy crossing of the river if things remain interesting.

Glen
 
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