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05/12/04 FCST: S Alley

Ah, well that does make me feel a bit better, thanks for the info Mike.....however, I can only think that the front at this point has ventured a little further than they expected at 13z.....but, on the bright side, a shift further south would mean less driving and thus less gas money...woohoo!...lol
 
If you check out the latest RUC, the winds behind the front turn to the southeast (and strong) by early afternoon.... this will likely cause a rapid retreat of the front by late afternoon...

Right now I'm targeting Alva, OK, with a good possibility of heading north from there to Medicine Lodge or points slightly west of there. RUC has best low-level shear staying either immediately along the front, or into central OK. However, the central OK action will be in weak (25kt) 0-6k shear, which is typically barely supportive of supercells. I do like the 30-35kt 850mb jet in sc and points east of i35, but I think that's too far from initiation... RUC also has nice VVs showing up on nearly all levels over nw OK by afternoon...

EDIT: Check out the 0z Medicine Lodge sounding at http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewts.php3?f...STATIONID=_KP28 ... LOL no cap, 680 SWEAT index, and strong CAPE... Shear profiles are pretty skimpy, and LCL is pretty high, but still doable with the instability...
 
Good morning gang! I'm already sitting in Hays, KS right now, so I am targeting areas basically straight south along US Hwy 183. I don't foresee myself going back any further west, but its an option I'm keeping open. In the meantime, I am going to load up on supplies at the Hays Wal-Mart, then jump on Hwy 183 southward, maybe stopping in Great Bend for data in an hour or so, then may shoot down to St. John or Pratt and sit and wait. We'll see!
 
Originally posted by Tony Laubach
maybe stopping in Great Bend for data in an hour or so, then may shoot down to St. John or Pratt and sit and wait. We'll see!
Click to expand...

If all else fails, head to Pratt ... it's the Kansas version of Throckmorton. :) All the best to everyone out today ... hope you find some good stuff - - - if nothing pops up around here and I can't chase, you'll find me parked in the NOW thread this afternoon - -
 
Wow, CAPES near 5000 and Supercell proability at 85%.....good enough for us, we will be heading NNW for the border shortly.

Anyone at home up for being a semi-nowcaster today?....lol
 
Very interesting day, I wish I was out now and not Friday evening. There are dewpoints into to 60's across southern Kansas though the wind field are somewhat chaotic across Kansas. (16:11Z) There is a nice dryline across the western portion of the Texas Panhandle. On the 15Z RUC, CAPE of about 4000 is predicted across south central Kansas, higher in Oklahoma. An isolated area of precip is forecast for the OK panhandle extending into Kansas (LIberal KS to Gate OK). From the Low in SE Co, there will be backed winds across Oklahoma extending to the Kanas border. On today's upper level obs, at the 250 mb level winds are at 50 across the Texas Panhandle extending to NM. Slightly higher across Co and Nebraska. 500 mb winds are weak. There is an obs of 50 in southern Az though I'm not sure those higher level winds will reach the target area by this afternoon. Satellite shows a Cu field across NW Oklahoma into Ks. I am slightly concerned about 700 temps of 9-10 across the area.

Depite my concerns about weak winds at the 500 level and cloud cover, I think today will be a good chase day with likely supercells. My target is Buffalo, Oklahoma. Good luck to everybody.

Bill Hark
 
15z RUC is showing moisture convergence bullseye in the Coldwater-Medicine Lodge region by 0z. Not surprisingly, this is also where it initiates convection between 21-0z.

With CAPE progged to 3000+ and 0-3km SRH into the 200-300 range, not to mention being very near the edge of the stronger flow aloft, I am starting to like the looks of things in this area.
 
Days like this are great - - - it happens every year ... Bob started this thread like a week ago with the models projecting a good trough ... then we get all excited and worked up ... then the day before everything looks like it falls apart and we are all bummed ... then the day of, things have a way of working back around to being interesting again and we're all excited - then bummed again for a while - then excited again. Days like this are the best for big surprises! So have a blast no matter what happens - - -
 
We had a loud thunderstorm go through here (Lawrence, KS) about an hour ago. Tenth of an inch of rain in about 10 minutes, lots of lightning. I was worried that this would clamp down on instability later today, but I just went outside and the sun is already starting to peek through the overcast. It's very humid now and it looks unstable to the naked eye.
 
I'm sitting here in Mississippi, wishing I was out there. Me and my chase buddies almost came out, but since gas is so expensive and its about a 12 hour drive, we backed out yesterday afternoon. I do like the setup, while not overly impressive, it looks good enough. This is the kind of day that will produce tornadoes. Nobody's really playing it up and it all happens. It ususally happens in areas that nobody expects, such as eastern Colorado where low level shear could be a little better. If I were chasing, I would be somewhere in the vicity of Dodge City and adjust for that. I have an XM unit and that makes changing locations an easier decisions. Good luck to everybody. ONe more thing, is it just me or is the storm track web page not posting good severe weather events anymore. I know they used to, but it seems like they're dropping the ball!
 
Ken,

If there were some good severe weather events I'm sure they would be posted on the front page. Ya know?

IMO, there is always good discussion here from the forecasts to the nowcasts to the reports. I am actually pretty happy with Stormtrack these days. Thanks to all the editors, mods, chasers and weather enthusiasts who contribute every day!

Best,
Fabian
 
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