I agree, the models don't look too promising for tornadic activity, but as Jeff mentioned, they've been inconsistent. A couple of things make me optimistic for today. One, with the amount of instability we're dealing with, marginal shear can be overcome. Secondly, it's May. And like Tim Marshall says, when it's May, you chase.
The thing I like best is, while the speeds are generally weak to marginal, they are directionally sound for supercells. Also, as the day wears on, the mid-level winds will become stronger over all of NC OK/SC KS, enhancing the chances for long-lived supercells (with decent steering/vent winds).
Right now, my forecast is the same as it was two days ago......find the CF/dryline intersection and play off of that. Better instability (not that the lower areas aren't awesome) will be southward along the dryline into the TX pan, but the winds out there are absolutely dead. Not even extreme instability (I don't think) can make up for the total lack of shear in that region.
Right now I'm liking the Great Bend/Huthinson/Newton corridor, at least initially. Depending on the position of the front, this target will be adjusted north/south.