I'm not real excited about the 12th as of now. The cold front seems to be playing havoc on an otherwise sweet triple point set-up. ETA has very linear-fashion UVV spikes at all levels, and the only precip breaking out through 0Z is in EC/NE Kansas - all long the cold front. There's absolutely nothing south of Newton, KS.
Wind fields look to be highly suspect, if either the ETA or GFS is to be believed. The best flow at all levels simply aren't stacked at all. The killer LL jet looks to be east of the main upper flow/h85 moisture axis, and is directly undrneath a dry fetch at h7. Just doesn't look like May, really.
Of course it's two days out, and the models will change, but I'm not seeing anything special in these current runs that would indicate that Wed is going to be any different than what we've been dealt so far. Naturally, we finally get the Gulf to stop hitting the crack pipe just as the upper level winds decide to vacation early up into the central/northern Plains. That's pretty much been 2004's MO........get one thing fixed and something else breaks. I think I like years like 2002 better........it's more exciting to sit under a thermonuclear cap knowing that if anything does go up, it'll be awesome. As opposed to this year, where initiation is a given but where is the one cell worth your time in all the mess?
I'm not real confident that anything south of the KS/OK border will get its act together anytime soon....and time is running out (since climatology always seems to revert back to 'normal' when it's time for the S Plains season to end).
Hoping the storm gods are listening and wanting to make me look a fool....