05/12/04 FCST: S Alley

Bob Schafer

Bob Schafer

EF5
Joined
Dec 8, 2003
Messages
1,411
Location
Southeast CO
GFS guidance indicates a substantial trough ejecting to Southern Alley for middle of next week.

Everyone get your gear ready tell the boss you'll be sick!

(Yes, I know what the letters GFS mean. :roll: I have more faith in the GFS's ability to forecast synoptic trends than some of you.)

Bob
 
Long way out yet. But we can hope.

We're about an inch behind in rain this year here in Kansas, which makes it the third dry year in a row. We could use some nice precip even if we don't get any cool storms to go with it. Awfully early in the year for a ridge like this.
 
Bob, you seem pretty confident so I'm not about to doubt you! The timing seems like it would be right after a major slow period for a major turn around. I'm taking out my life savings and I'll meet you somewhere down there, lol.

just kidding, maybe

Jared
 
I can only hope.. I have a final this Thursday and the rest on Monday, which means I can make the journey! :thumbleft: Will definately be watchin as time draws nearer, but fortunately after Monday, nothing holding me back! :cheers:
 
Last night's run of the GFS shows that trough should be negatively tilted when it comes. In my mind, that was the last piece that needed to fall into place. Even the usually skeptical OUN office has jumped on the GFS bandwagon.

Latest model runs seem to be converging to the Mon-Wed time period for a substantial change in the status quo w.r.t. sensible weather. Strong NE CO cyclogenesis still advertised by GFS on Tue..with other models jumping on board. Examination of progged low level flow from the deep south Gulf of Mexico/Wrn Caribbean areas indicate that a 36-48 hour period of trajectories much more favorable for NWWd transport of truly tropical boundary layer mixing ratios AOA 16 g/kg will occur from late Mon into Wed ahead of trof. Thus confidence has increased slighly in finally getting higher octane fuel in place.\" --(Miller, early morning OUN AFD)
Click to expand...

Definitely some serious chasing coming up...finally!!!
:eek:

Gabe
 
Finally a light of hope at the end of the tunnell. I missed the 30th so I haven't seen a tornadic storm since April 23. Not good since its the heart of the chase season. This week had better verify, else I might go crazy.
 
12th could be fun, but looks like 11th will be THEE day. 11th looking sweet right now. Someone should start one for the 11th. I tried, but no reply from Tim V on it yet. Last gfs run moves things a bit quicker for the 11th. I would imagine the cap would be broken by this trof clear down the dryline(though 20-25c at 850 slightly scary). Looking really really sweet and I need someplace to talk about it!

Mike
 
Now the GFS appears to be leaning more towards the 12th being "thee" day. I'd say DDC down through the panhandles. 11th still looks like a decent chase day perhaps in western NE area.
 
Woo hoo! I managed to get the day off. If I can pull Tuesday off as well, then I'll try and chase both days (the marathon of marathons). Tuesday looks relatively close to home, so I'll probably run my happy butt off til dark, then cruise south towards the Panhandles, stay overnight someplace close by (between Dodge City and Amarillo) and then chase Day 2 til dark, making a partial return to Denver, crashing overnight, then finishing the trip home, hopefully arriving back in Denver before my 6p Thursday shift at work! :tard: I'll give myself more difinitive target areas towards the end of the weekend/beginning of next week, so keep watchin!
 
Based on the 12Z ETA run, Wednesday could be a classic dryline day for the S. Plains. Over 3000 j/kg of MLCAPE colocated with over 300 m2/s2 of 0-3 km shear over Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Only caveat at this time is the weak mid-upper level winds (only around 56 kts at 250 mb and 30 kts at 500 mb). However, ETA has been known to underforecast subtle upper features in the past (a la May 3rd). Also, low-level shear will be tremendous with a low-level jet between 35-45 kts. Looks like there is some potential for a big event, if the mid-upper level winds are stronger than forecast.

Gabe
 
I agree Gabe, Wednesday is certainly shaping up. If we can get the dryline into Western Oklahoma along with everything else, its a no-brainer, but if its in the Tx Panhandle/West OK, I might sit it out because I have school/work Thursday.
 
This week is looking great! The west coast trough digging in is really a sight for sore eyes.

I'm heading west Monday morning from WV for my first of (hopefully) two weeklong Plains chase mini-vacations. I'll be out there from late Monday through Thursday or Friday, then again for another trip whenever the next good trough sets up later this month.

Hope to see some of you out there! If you see a green Ranger with WV plates, stop and say hi.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top