05/12/04 FCST: S Alley

GFS guidance indicates a substantial trough ejecting to Southern Alley for middle of next week.

Everyone get your gear ready tell the boss you'll be sick!

(Yes, I know what the letters GFS mean. :roll: I have more faith in the GFS's ability to forecast synoptic trends than some of you.)

Long way out yet. But we can hope.

We're about an inch behind in rain this year here in Kansas, which makes it the third dry year in a row. We could use some nice precip even if we don't get any cool storms to go with it. Awfully early in the year for a ridge like this.
Bob, you seem pretty confident so I'm not about to doubt you! The timing seems like it would be right after a major slow period for a major turn around. I'm taking out my life savings and I'll meet you somewhere down there, lol.

just kidding, maybe

I can only hope.. I have a final this Thursday and the rest on Monday, which means I can make the journey! :thumbleft: Will definately be watchin as time draws nearer, but fortunately after Monday, nothing holding me back! :cheers:
Last night's run of the GFS shows that trough should be negatively tilted when it comes. In my mind, that was the last piece that needed to fall into place. Even the usually skeptical OUN office has jumped on the GFS bandwagon.

Latest model runs seem to be converging to the Mon-Wed time period for a substantial change in the status quo w.r.t. sensible weather. Strong NE CO cyclogenesis still advertised by GFS on Tue..with other models jumping on board. Examination of progged low level flow from the deep south Gulf of Mexico/Wrn Caribbean areas indicate that a 36-48 hour period of trajectories much more favorable for NWWd transport of truly tropical boundary layer mixing ratios AOA 16 g/kg will occur from late Mon into Wed ahead of trof. Thus confidence has increased slighly in finally getting higher octane fuel in place.\" --(Miller, early morning OUN AFD)

Definitely some serious chasing coming up...finally!!!

Finally a light of hope at the end of the tunnell. I missed the 30th so I haven't seen a tornadic storm since April 23. Not good since its the heart of the chase season. This week had better verify, else I might go crazy.
12th could be fun, but looks like 11th will be THEE day. 11th looking sweet right now. Someone should start one for the 11th. I tried, but no reply from Tim V on it yet. Last gfs run moves things a bit quicker for the 11th. I would imagine the cap would be broken by this trof clear down the dryline(though 20-25c at 850 slightly scary). Looking really really sweet and I need someplace to talk about it!

Now the GFS appears to be leaning more towards the 12th being "thee" day. I'd say DDC down through the panhandles. 11th still looks like a decent chase day perhaps in western NE area.
Woo hoo! I managed to get the day off. If I can pull Tuesday off as well, then I'll try and chase both days (the marathon of marathons). Tuesday looks relatively close to home, so I'll probably run my happy butt off til dark, then cruise south towards the Panhandles, stay overnight someplace close by (between Dodge City and Amarillo) and then chase Day 2 til dark, making a partial return to Denver, crashing overnight, then finishing the trip home, hopefully arriving back in Denver before my 6p Thursday shift at work! :tard: I'll give myself more difinitive target areas towards the end of the weekend/beginning of next week, so keep watchin!
Based on the 12Z ETA run, Wednesday could be a classic dryline day for the S. Plains. Over 3000 j/kg of MLCAPE colocated with over 300 m2/s2 of 0-3 km shear over Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Only caveat at this time is the weak mid-upper level winds (only around 56 kts at 250 mb and 30 kts at 500 mb). However, ETA has been known to underforecast subtle upper features in the past (a la May 3rd). Also, low-level shear will be tremendous with a low-level jet between 35-45 kts. Looks like there is some potential for a big event, if the mid-upper level winds are stronger than forecast.

I agree Gabe, Wednesday is certainly shaping up. If we can get the dryline into Western Oklahoma along with everything else, its a no-brainer, but if its in the Tx Panhandle/West OK, I might sit it out because I have school/work Thursday.
This week is looking great! The west coast trough digging in is really a sight for sore eyes.

I'm heading west Monday morning from WV for my first of (hopefully) two weeklong Plains chase mini-vacations. I'll be out there from late Monday through Thursday or Friday, then again for another trip whenever the next good trough sets up later this month.

Hope to see some of you out there! If you see a green Ranger with WV plates, stop and say hi.
Its confirmed.. I'll be in the TX/OK Panhandles for Wednesday. I'll leave Denver mid-afternoon on Tuesday and stay overnight in the Panhandles, chase Wednesday, then return to Denver; going halfway Wednesday night, then finishing the trip Thursday.

You know me by now.. eye the 'WX NERD' plates.. I won't be too far! Will be awaiting upcoming runs and forecasts.. looking good as of now! Keep your fingers crossed it holds! 8)
Yeah. I wish I were in the area SW of Wichita Falls when the sun starts heating thing up out there. Tonight's run of the 00z ETA (May10th run) had extreme instablility over that area at 12z the 13th. I can't wait to see what happens when the sun comes up. Point and click soundings show 12z cape at 3668 j/kg and surface LI at -10. No joke. Cinh at -180. That's a little bad news but if there is sunshine it will be very interesting to to see what happens. During the time from 06z to 12z there is cooler temps moving over that area at 500mb. At first glance I could see much shear but I was just looking at 500mb winds. I am near Dallas-Fort Worth so I hope the storms come to me. I am very excited about this event.
I'm not real excited about the 12th as of now. The cold front seems to be playing havoc on an otherwise sweet triple point set-up. ETA has very linear-fashion UVV spikes at all levels, and the only precip breaking out through 0Z is in EC/NE Kansas - all long the cold front. There's absolutely nothing south of Newton, KS.

Wind fields look to be highly suspect, if either the ETA or GFS is to be believed. The best flow at all levels simply aren't stacked at all. The killer LL jet looks to be east of the main upper flow/h85 moisture axis, and is directly undrneath a dry fetch at h7. Just doesn't look like May, really.

Of course it's two days out, and the models will change, but I'm not seeing anything special in these current runs that would indicate that Wed is going to be any different than what we've been dealt so far. Naturally, we finally get the Gulf to stop hitting the crack pipe just as the upper level winds decide to vacation early up into the central/northern Plains. That's pretty much been 2004's MO........get one thing fixed and something else breaks. I think I like years like 2002 better........it's more exciting to sit under a thermonuclear cap knowing that if anything does go up, it'll be awesome. As opposed to this year, where initiation is a given but where is the one cell worth your time in all the mess?

I'm not real confident that anything south of the KS/OK border will get its act together anytime soon....and time is running out (since climatology always seems to revert back to 'normal' when it's time for the S Plains season to end).

Hoping the storm gods are listening and wanting to make me look a fool....
I don't think western OK looks half bad for Wednesday. I would hang out about 80 miles west of OKC as of now. Dryline looks far enough south of the surging cold front to possibly give one some fun. Now to get there from the Peirre SD area the day before is the trick....hmmm.
Both the ETA and GFS disagree with you as of a few hours ago....neither has any precip breaking out south of ICT by 0Z. Otherwise I'd be inclined to stray into NW OK.

But all we're really looking at now are guesses for Wed, so it's quite possible a potent day is in store. Sometimes I forget why I don't look at models more than 24 hours away.
Each run of the GFS has been dropping the surface low more south, closer to the ETA's run, and the GFS has been consistent in a dry line surge toward Central KS which would be along dryline/ cold front triple point. With 3000 Capes, Tds near 70 and highs in the 90s there should be updrafts capable of dropping softballs. With a decent shortwave, the surface low should be lower than 1000mb. A couple of isolated supercells should develop from triple point southward along the dryline through Western Oklahoma, maybe down to near Childress. I would bubble in a moderate risk from Childress to near Dodge City, and then another mod along the front.
The ETA made a fool out of me so I am watching it 3 runs per day and not going to say anything about it's results. I'm just posting now to answer Chris Hayes question. I use GEMPAK software where I download model data from the NCEP sever and use a program within Gempak called Nsharp. It's a sounding program that comes with Gempak and it plots soundings for where ever you click on a map. Great program but you have to have the Linux operating system to run it. It's free from Unidata. Alot of universities have plots made by gempak programs on their websites. I can't think of an online site that has a page where you can get that kind of thing. I wish there was and I would gladly give a link.
Though the constant model flip-flops aren't encouraging to me, and I still don't feel that moisture has fully recovered to climatological Mid-may standards, and lots of other issues I'm too tired to expand upon, the OUN night update is more encouraging than others of late:


I drove from Los Alamos to Norman today and drove through the DL convection in the TX panhandle that was more depressing/lackluster than anything. The most exciting part of the day was getting static shocked by my weather radio connected to an antenna on the car roof. Crazy!