05/07/06 - NMx, TX, OK & KS

After reviewing the UCAR RUC, it appears to me that the area from about 100 miles south of the Midland-Odessa to Wink to Hobbs, to Lubbock, to Snyder, and back to a point south of Midland-Odessa, may be the hot spot again today.

The RUC is forecasting the best combination of shear and instability for that area. Upslope flow, high dew point air, a developing dryline this afternoon and better flow at 700 and 500 mb than farther north, all point toward this area for storms that shouldn't HP so quickly.

Temps at 500 mb are forecast to be a little warmer than during Friday's Hail Fest, but should be sufficiently cold for more hail opportunities, for those so inclined.

I'm stuck in Dallas and won't be chasing today.

Good luck to those who will be.
 
After reviewing the UCAR RUC, it appears to me that the area from about 100 miles south of the Midland-Odessa to Wink to Hobbs, to Lubbock, to Snyder, and back to a point south of Midland-Odessa, may be the hot spot again today.

The RUC is forecasting the best combination of shear and instability for that area. Upslope flow, high dew point air, a developing dryline this afternoon and better flow at 700 and 500 mb than farther north, all point toward this area for storms that shouldn't HP so quickly.

Temps at 500 mb are forecast to be a little warmer than during Friday's Hail Fest, but should be sufficiently cold for more hail opportunities, for those so inclined.

I'm stuck in Dallas and won't be chasing today.

Good luck to those who will be.
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I like today setup: Eta is improving with the passing of the hours. In respect to the last run Eta is forecasting a strenghtening of the mid level flow that could reach 50-60 kt in western texas. Not bad also for the LLJ that could go to 20-25kts with a good southest direction aboveall in the Odessa zone.

Only a thing: we don't have incredible dew points at the ground even if 60F is not bad.

I don't agree with the Spc tornadoes probability even though I think that they will increase in the next update.

I like so much the zone of Odessa and Big Springs.
 
Forecast instablity of 1000 to 2000 J/Kg by RUC looks on target. Shear profile not bad with
30kts or so at 500mb and surface winds from the south at 15 to 25kt.

Clearing should continue to progress eastward with good surface heating and weakening
cap. Already looks like some storms trying to go in the Goodland area with approaching
upper trough.

Not sure of the tornado potential, because of the low dewpoints, and higher LCL's
but certainly with the very cold upper levels could have some good large hailers and
supercells.
 
The thing about the area along and just north of I20 from about Odessa to Big Spring is that is a boundary through there slowly moving northward (much like on Friday). As these status clouds continue to erode and we get some sunshine in a triple point area out to the NW of MAF if we can get temps above 80 we should be in business for some Dryline magic out here today.

Already I note as the clouds are eroding NEward Kermit is at 83/59 and Hobbs, NM has warmed up to 70/59 which was a good improvement from the last couple hours of obs there.

Again, that boundary I believe is going to be our key player for tornadoes in the area here today.

EDIT to add: On Friday we had a similar situation with the low clouds and an northward advancing boundary. Mid afternoon the clouds broke just to the north of the boundary allowing significant heating to occur to the immediate north of the boundary in a very short period of time....like 2 hrs. This caused the boundary to jump northward on the order of about 50-60 miles or so, which actually prompted a second tornado watch just to the north of the first one that had gone up. Of course you know what happened after that. The behavior of that boundary and surface heating should be closely watched in the area between LBB and MAF today.
 
It looks like the northward moving boundary in the MAF area is indeed a weak warm front, and as the dryline mixes eastward throughout the day, the triple point is increasingly looking like the place to be. Given moisture advection into the MAF to Hobbs area (which appears to be under-estimated by the RUC), and a rapidly eroding stratus deck, the Hobbs to Big Springs area may be fantasic in a few hours. I appears a weak surface low may be developing near Carlsbad aiding in the northward progression of the WF. I'm a bit surprised SPC didn't go to 5% TOR on the 1630 outlook.
 
It looks like the northward moving boundary in the MAF area is indeed a weak warm front, and as the dryline mixes eastward throughout the day, the triple point is increasingly looking like the place to be. Given moisture advection into the MAF to Hobbs area (which appears to be under-estimated by the RUC), and a rapidly eroding stratus deck, the Hobbs to Big Springs area may be fantasic in a few hours. I appears a weak surface low may be developing near Carlsbad aiding in the northward progression of the WF. I'm a bit surprised SPC didn't go to 5% TOR on the 1630 outlook.
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Yes I'm a bit surprised too. Lfcs and Lcls are not so high to justify 2% of probability of tornadoes. I think Spc forecasters are basing their forecast on Ruc that shows the mid level flow weaker than Eta. Anyway also 35kt-40 at 500mb can be sufficient to have a good convection.
 
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