05/05/05: TALK: TX

I'm in Amarillo, right now... After taking a look at NAM, I've come to the conclusion that the TX panhandle (and E NM) COULD see a shot at some LP's tomorrow. I may have to head a bit south of where I am, tomorrow, but I'll know tomorrow morning...
 
I'm not sure that I see any big potential for any supercells in Texas tomorrow, or anywhere for that matter.
There is definitely some directional shear, but CAPE is fairly low, and I dont really see any dynamics that support the development of a low pressure or upward motion. Forcing looks minimal. Your best bet would be to have some general air mass thunderstorms form that can somehow get a sustainable updraft so that they can take advantage of the available shear.

Good luck, but I dont think you'll see much for a few days.
 
I don't see much of anything exciting during the day on Thursday. SPC's Day 2 outlook earlier on Wednesday before the 1730Z outlook had an area of slight severe, but now downgraded to a chance. With weak 500mb winds, and other severe parameters lacking, I don't expect anything decent to fire.
 
Looks pretty cloudy out that way Nick. I think you'll have better opportunities if you headed down to around Roswell. Fun place to visit either way - and there are the nice caves nearby. Mid 50 dews advecting upslope behind a subtle warm front could act as a focus for afternoon convection. RUC optimistically breaks out precip in that same area, which seems reasonable given strength of upslope flow. If the fog bank continues to clear out and it becomes evident temps will climb at least to the mid 70's in se NM, then you might give this area a serious look as shear will be quite favorable for rotating storms. Perhaps day 1 will pick up on it, or not.

Glen
 
We got just SW of Amarillo, and after talking about it while eating lunch, we both agreed that it wasn't worth driving to NM. We decided that it would be best to just head north for the activity coming this weekend. We're now in Hugoton, KS and we should stop in Dodge City to spend the night...
 
dodge city

hey nick, stop by boot hill. Neat place to look at. Used to live in garden city 55 miles to the west. Also, El Charro's mexican food is great.
 
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