05/04/07 NOW: KS/OK/TX/NE/SD

[Jeff Miller]

Initiation underway in NC Nebraska, tornado warned supercell approaching O Neill, NE...Doppler indicated but certainly impressive cell, motion NE at 30 with more development likely this afternoon in this red box.

EDIT: Large hail core associated with this cell, and looks to hit O'Neill dead on - tornado potential looks limited however due to rapidly developing convection on the southwest flank. Have a feeling things staying discrete may prove difficult in this scenario.

 

[Chad Ringley]

FWIW, though a little bit farther E than the current MDT risk, some pretty pronounced HCRs showing up on tilt 1 bref (and vis sat) out of VNX in Grant Co. OK and Harper and Sumner Co. KS. SPC mesoanalysis indicates this is a location of some enhanced moisture convergence and also at the leading edge of the surface theta-e tounge that is wrapping back to the NW.

 

[Donald Giuliano]

Looks like initiation is ocurring just north of Shamrock...finally get to leave work and will be heading out on I-40 to see what happens. RUC seems to be doing pretty well with this.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Sitting in La Crosse KS pondering drifting north to an area of convergence n of the bulge(around Hays or west). Some new cu are forming in this area, though they are still very pathetic. Sucks not knowing what to expect as this dry push should stop and pull west, but then convergence will probably suck even worse. Cu in sc KS are tempting but I can't even see those from here so saying screw it.

 

[Chris Hayes]

From the looks of satelite imagery, towering CU are developing NW of ICT southeastward at this time. That appears the most likely area for initiation in the next hour or two. Getting a little worried and impatient, despite the fact I'm still in Ohio. LOL

 

[George Tincher]

That activity that's trying to get organized down along the TX Panhandle/ Oklahoma state lines is very interesting. It hasn't been able to get a stronger core than 51 dbz so far and this thing may not even completely make it, but if it does get through, that should be one explosive storm as it moves off to the NE into Ellis County, OK.

EDIT: OUN just gave that developing storm a SVR warning (Ellis County, OK).

 

[Jason Bolt]

From the looks of satelite imagery, towering CU are developing NW of ICT southeastward at this time. That appears the most likely area for initiation in the next hour or two. Getting a little worried and impatient, despite the fact I'm still in Ohio. LOL

Can visually confirm towering Cu developing NW of ICT, in the general area of Sylvia, KS presently.

 

[matt patterson]

TOR WARNING on cell sw of Woodward!! Moving ENE at 20 MPH

Will impact Arnett and Sharon in the next 45 min.

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[Khristian Snyder]

David Drummond appears to be in great position on the tornado warned cell entering Ellis county, OK.

 

[Angie Norris]

Hail to possibly baseball size (or larger) associated with the Roger Mills/Ellis County storm. No tornado seen yet, but getting a nice hook.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Both of the cells are showing rotation. Gotta wonder about Mesoanalysis-indicated LCL of ~2000m, though. BTW: Echo Tops.... 57k feet. Wow.

 

[Brett Adair]

Cells beginning to show hail cores developing to near 20kft. Updraft rotation continues to increase based on Level II data.

 

[Brett Adair]

Possible developing DRC on the storm now....with a new tornado warning.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Tom Dulong, Ed Grubb, and myself checked ourselves into our hotel in Wakeeney, KS where we're going to be based from all weekend. Tornado Watch to our south and one expected to our west. Looks like a very late show for us up here in the north. Dryline is retreating west as of now, thus will hold here to see what starts to develop over the next hour or so before dark.

 

[Angie Norris]

Confirmed tornado southwest of Arnett OK.