05/04/04 FCST: WY, NE, KS

[Tony Laubach]

Still a few days away, but since this would be a close-to-home situation for me, I felt it worth mentioning. Although SPC hasn't hasn't SLIGHTED this area yet, they do have it mentioned for a possible area to watch on Tuesday, highlighting an area from East Central Wyoming southward through SW Kansas. I'm at home (via dial-up), so I haven't had a chance to check any runs and make my own guesses, but given the short distance for me, it may be a quick, easy chase after I finish school early in the afternoon. Will keep an eye on things and hopefully have a better forecast tomorrow when I have access to a higher speed connection.

 

[Matthew Hatton]

I'm currently in Moore, OK so that would be well within reach. Do you think SPC will Slight it then?

 

[Tony Laubach]

Originally posted by Matthew Hatton
I'm currently in Moore, OK so that would be well within reach. Do you think SPC will Slight it then?

Honestly, I would say no! It was wishful thinking over the weekend, but after checking out the models, I wouldn't be too optomistic for much of anything. I don't think the moisture is going to be enough to support anything big.. if something develops, it'll be very high based. Don't hold your breath for anything.. definately not enough to warrent a trip from Moore. Save your gas til next time! :lol:

 

[Tim Vasquez]

The Gulf has been wrung and hung out to dry, and we're getting backwash from Florida almost all week. I notice for 5/4 there is a peripheral fetch from the Bay of Campeche through DRT/MAF northward (easier to see at 850 mb)... that's not likely to be well sampled, or well-handled in the Sierra Madre Oriental, so I expect lots of refinements and changes to the big picture over the next 36 hours.

Tim

 

[Tony Laubach]

Originally posted by Tim Vasquez
The Gulf has been wrung and hung out to dry, and we're getting backwash from Florida almost all week. I notice for 5/4 there is a peripheral fetch from the Bay of Campeche through DRT/MAF northward (easier to see at 850 mb)... that's not likely to be well sampled, or well-handled in the Sierra Madre Oriental, so I expect lots of refinements and changes to the big picture over the next 36 hours.

I didn't see that.. nor was it touched on in the WX Briefing this morning.. will keep an eye on that. Thanks, Tim!

 

[Matthew Hatton]

Ah I do see what your saying Tim. So its likely there will be more moisture than initially forecast?

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Actually I'm not hinting either way. It's more of a mention of a complicated factor, and a mechanism that deserves to be watched. Typically our moisture comes right off the Gulf... this time it's being dragged through the Mexican badlands.

Tim

 

[Matthew Hatton]

OK Tim thanks for the info. Have to say that is something I would never have even considered before. Is it feasible then that some models would have a harder time of picking up on this then?

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Don't know -- that far out there could be so many factors at play. But as far as the basic mechanics the Eta (with its terrain-following sigma surfaces) should theoretically do a better job at the actual moisture advection if it's to pass over Mexico, but then being so far south it will be disrupted by convection in the boundary layer. There's too many unknowns to second-guess... the main consideration from all this is I wouldn't advise a trip to Wyoming/Nebraska for something 3 days out until the situation pans out a little better. There's some good dryline convergence firming up in TX/OK later in the week... wonder how this will fare.

Tim

 

[Matthew Hatton]

Tim, I was thinking that TX was possibly a better bet, that's why I stopped going any further N today to be honest. For the time being I want to be somewhere in the middle just in case. What would you recommend would be the best charts to view the set up for this? I have DA 2000 which is fantastic but some of the links do not work for some reason.

 

[mikegeukes]

Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.

Mike

 

[Matthew Hatton]

a much warmer source then by the looks of it. May be enough to compensate moving over the land before it reaches us possibly.

 

[Austin Ivey]

Super GOM SST map Mike. Thanks!