04/29/05: TALK: OK/MO/AR/IL/KY/TN

[Jason Montano]

Well things look good for tomorrow but I decided to sit this one out. If I were chasing my initial target would be Tunica, MS b/c I could throw some dice while waiting for initiation....No really, I think that around that area E of the Miss. R. in NW and W Cent. MS looks really nice.

Good luck to those chasing tomorrow.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

Good point. The drive from KC is too much given the fact that I have to be at work at 8 am on sat.. But It should be a good show. I dont like the continual southeastward component of many of the computer models.. :roll: I am biding my time for May and June. Be safe everyone!

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I was real close to going. I just have to much homework to get done this weekend though. If this was in the plains I would be on it like a duck on a june bug homework or not. I pulled out the atlas and looked at the target areas road options when I was debating on whether or not to go this afternoon and the poor road networks is what really sold me on staying home. I just don't think it is going to be possible to keep up with these storms very long considering how fast they will be moving and the road options you have to work with. Why don't other states put in square mile grids like the plains states? It just makes sense to do it that way.

 

[Todd Beal]

If poor road networks are a major factor in the decision to chase or not... the MS Delta is very flat and you can see for miles. It is very good chase country. I would set up shop east of the river somewhere along Hwy 61 b/w Memphis and Greenville.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

The country roads along along 70 and straight East of Little Rock and down to around Stuttgart look OK, but it seems like every 20 miles or so there is a major obstacle you have to get around. I wasn't worried about visibility as all of eastern Arkansas over to and East of the Mississippi looked alright. Trying to keep up with a storm though on roads that curve and run NE and SE will take its toll very quickly when storms are moving 35-40mph. Don't get me wrong, the roads would not be a deal breaker if I didn't have other things to consider(homework).

 

[Todd Beal]

I finally have an event come knocking on my doorstep and I have to work. I tried to work it out to where I could chase but it was not happenign with work. I will try my best to get out there if I can

But it is looking bleak for me, best of luck to those of you chasing! Good luck!

 

[Billy Griffin]

Unfortunately, with the forecasts still shifting this event a little eastward and farther south with every run, it looks like I'll sit this one out as well.

Had two chase partners lined up and was looking forward to the trip, but I think now that it's just a good call to save the money and await activity a little closer to home.

Good luck to all that do venture out today. I'm not familiar with the terrain or roads at all in SE Arkansas or Mississippi.

 

[nickgrillo]

We're leaving the motel in a few for something south of I-40. I've been doing analysis for the past half an hour... And I've come to the conclusion that storms should hold off until around 5PM CDT. I'm also hoping that this stupid convection to the west of me (severe hailers...) don't screw things up - I'm hoping it clears the heck out of here soon...

Leaving for SE of Little Rock now...

 

[Robert Dewey]

RUC is really killing instability... It has ~1500J/KG across the main threat region at 0Z. This could be underestimated - The 12Z NAM is still on track with it's previous instability parameters. I haven't really looked at the models with any amount of depth, which I really should do...

 

[Scott Olson]

Yeah that grunge is really taking its toll on instability. So far I favor the Hampton (SC AR) attm. With a subtle retreat eastward after 21z if things don't play out according to plan. This at least supports 1500 J/kg with 250 m/s. Good luck to everyone out today.

-Scott.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Yes, the difference appears to be related to the magnitude of heat energy. Although orientation of Theta-e ridge is similar under both models (from coastal TX to northeast AR), the RUC puts Theta-e values ~10 C lower across the board. Given this, we could see convective initiation occur more to the west later today - western AR or even E TX.

 

[Ben Prusia]

Best instability factors and chances for severe weather, I feel, will be located around Texarkana. CAPE there will be up to 2000 J/Kg, the more west, I think the best clearing will occur. If I were chasing today, I would choose Texarkana as a start and move east, glad I made the decision at 3 this morning to stay home

 

[Glen Romine]

Originally posted by Scott Olson
This at least supports 1500 J/kg with 250 m/s.

I assume this is a typo? What is the second number in reference too? Also, are you talking about surface based, most unstable or mixed layer CAPE? makes a big difference, so it helps if you include which you are referring to. Current RUC estimates from the SPC mesoanlyses as of 16Z suggests current instability parameters are paltry, with best instability axis along I-30 from DFW to Texarkana with the overly optimistic surface-based CAPE values from 750-500 J/Kg, with minimum CIN values of ~150 J/Kg near Texarkana. Surface temps into the low 70's are working northward, with 74/65 at GGG. Vis sat does show thinning cirrus deck, but thick stratus deck beneath it in this region.

Glen

 

[Fabian Guerra]

Turn around...

Not sure if this post should go here or not...

Well, Jerry Funfsinn and I both took the bait on this setup. We drove 350-400 miles south from Chicago and Ladd, IL ending up about 50 miles south of St. Louis around midnight. We then stopped to look at the 0Z models and were pretty disgusted with the weakening of the system as well as the obvious SE trend of the low...the RUC, ETA and GFS all lining up against us like a firing squad. With extreme uncertainties about the system combined with the likely chance of any possible storms firing in highly questionable chase territory we made the choice to cut our losses and turn back around with our proverbial tails between our legs. It was indeed a long, tiring drive home. But that's the name of the game sometimes...you gotta know when to hold em and know when to fold em.

I will say that Amos' 11:30 PM post here almost had me wanting to stay the course and take our chances but we decided it best to save our money for another rainy day (pun intended) which hopefully will come soon and in better, more familiar chase territory.

Anyway, frustrating to say the least but after all is said and done I will examine closely how and why everything happened and will make myself learn something valuable from it. I sincerely hope that those of you who made the drive to AR find success because you truly deserve it. Today, is a challenge. Best of luck to all who chase today!!

Fabian

 

[Scott Olson]

Originally posted by Glen Romine+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Glen Romine)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Scott Olson

This at least supports 1500 J/kg with 250 m/s.

I assume this is a typo? What is the second number in reference too? Also, are you talking about surface based, most unstable or mixed layer CAPE? makes a big difference, so it helps if you include which you are referring to. Current RUC estimates from the SPC mesoanlyses as of 16Z suggests current instability parameters are paltry, with best instability axis along I-30 from DFW to Texarkana with the overly optimistic surface-based CAPE values from 750-500 J/Kg, with minimum CIN values of ~150 J/Kg near Texarkana. Surface temps into the low 70's are working northward, with 74/65 at GGG. Vis sat does show thinning cirrus deck, but thick stratus deck beneath it in this region.

Glen[/b]

14z ruc anaylsis yielded 1500 Mucape for the 21z-0z timeframe and 250 m/s of 0-3km SRH for the region I was speaking of. Hope that helps.

-Scott.