04/28/05: TALK: OK/AR/MO

[nickgrillo]

We're currently in a Comfort Inn near Jonesboro, AR. We currently have a 68/56 T/TD here... And I'm expecting convection to fire to the W/SW of us within the next couple hours...

Waiting for some lightning OP tonight, and getting ready for the big show tomorrow!

 

[nickgrillo]

Beautiful supercell continues to intensify (just popped up in the 8 PM hour) just east of Ft. Smith, and should continue to do so. Storm is pretty much hauling eastward...

 

[Chris Allington]

Split and somewhat weaker over the past couple of scans...hopefully one can become a right mover and strengthen...

 

[Alex Lamers]

That cell looks pretty healthy right now. Best core appears to be located in Northern Pope County in the Ozark National Forest near the Pedestal Rocks area. SVR just issued by the Little Rock NWS WFO.

Nick if you are in Jonesboro you may want to be ready to head up towards Lawrence County to intercept in several hours if it hangs together.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Chris Allington]

yup...also new storm begining to show weak radar returns north of Mena...this cell is pretty much on the boundary...

 

[Alex Lamers]

This storm is starting to rotate now. Weak cyclonic circulation picked up on 1.5º slice SRM image out of Ft. Smith radar site. 3DCO shear picked up on attributes table. Still waiting for structure evidence in response to rotation before I begin thinking about a possible tornado.

What are you planning to do with this storm Nick?

...Alex Lamers...

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by Alex Lamers
Nick if you are in Jonesboro you may want to be ready to head up towards Lawrence County to intercept in several hours if it hangs together.

...Alex Lamers...

Shoot, that stuff is hauling at >40 MPH E-NE towards us here (Jonesboro), it should be quite soon when they arrive around here...

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by Alex Lamers
What are you planning to do with this storm Nick?

...Alex Lamers...

Well, we're on planning on chasing the stuff once it gets into chaseable NE AR... which should be in the next 1-2HRS...

 

[Alex Lamers]

I have the primary cell missing you to the northeast, more towards the Walnut Ridge area. Cell could deviate to you if it becomes a right-mover but I am a little skeptical at this point. Will be interestering to see how long it maintains the upscale portion of its convective cycle. CAPE values look to be more limited in your area. Elevated instability will take awhile to materialize here. RUC soundings don't show much instability at all near Jonesboro, but then again the RUC has sucked with this event so far.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Kelley Austin]

I'm waitin' too

Nick I'm in Newport, just to your south west about 30 miles or so I'l let ya know when it comes thru here, and what to expect. If it hangs together.

Kelley

Edit: looks like it might be an hour or two though. Storm shows some rotation now.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Will be interesting to see how long these cells can hold together as they progress eastward into area of progressively increasing helicity, low-level shear and 850mb flow. Surface moisture convergence now aligned in a straight E/W swath right through central AR. As noted in latest MD, surface instability is dying down, so don't expect much in the way of new initiation.

 

[Chris Allington]

Right split beginning to show some sort of an appeandange.....havent glanced at SRMV mode at all so i could tell ya whats really happening...I'll take a glance at it...