04/11/05: FCST: Upper Mississipi Valley

Monday just came back from the dead for the midwest.

Convective feedback had skewed the models, but it appearns they are getting a better handle on things now. Showing CAPE values to 2000 through central Illinois, with even 2500 in NE Missouri and western Illinois at 18Z. Nice dry punch coming up along the Mississippi river as well...getting lower 60s dp's and mid 70s temps across central Illinois as any previous precip clears into Indiana by early afternoon, allowing a narrow clear slot for destabilization.

SE Winds at 15 kts are creating decent shear, with helicity values around 275-300 in central Illinois. Hopefully this isnt just a one time run...but at the moment, it appears things are looking up for this region...mainly western, central and south central Illinois and eastern Missouri.
Not looking to good at least at the moment, looking at CAPE <600 and low lapse rates for tomorrow here in Missouri. So Im not real confident in a Missouri Target area for tomorrow.
My fear came to reality today...it was basically a one time thing on the models. Everything is worse on the latest runs. The low is even less impressive...which was a big part of my interest. CAPE is decent at 18Z, among other things...but everything goes downhill beyond that point. Hopefully the models are off or something...but if not, tomorrow is done for in the midwest.
I see the SPC left ALL of missouri in the Slight risk for today, I thought that was a little odd, but they are the pro's I am not and that's why they get paid the big bucks :) I think I will set up shop at home, monitor radar throughout the day and then chase accordingly, at this point, I wouldnt mind even chasing a hail storm, which looks like is probably the most likely senario, Looks like if the sun can come out, and destabilize things a little bit, Initiation shoud occur about 3:00 PM or so, but thats a big IF... If cloud cover does not break up, thunderstorm chances will be NIL here. here's to good luck today! 8)
I feel that some activity COULD develop in the neck of the woods of Kansas City, N-ward. RUC Model has CAPES in excess of 2000 J/Kg, along with LI's of up to -6/-8 to the north and west of town, SRH at 100-150. Of course this is dependent that we can get some clearing up here in KC, which appears not to be likely, but I will be monitoring this for a potential close-to-home outing.

EDIT: SPC now has this area at the 5% tornado probability. Lucky me.
Newest RUC model does not hold good for the Kansas City area (with lowering CAPES (but does it really matter, like Karen Rhoden indicated in the 4/10 REPORTS thread?), but in other terms, the sun has started to come out here in Southern Overland Park, as I am noticing rapid clearing on the visible satellite imagery.

I still expect storms to fire east of the surface low and move into the Kansas City Area around 4-6PM.
I am 1 1/2 hr south of OP and it is starting to clear here also. There looks to be a dry slot near ICT via water vapor imagery and the low is situated between ICT and EMP. I wasnt overly inpressed with the RUC either, but after learning a lesson yesterday, the ENE quandrant of the low is the place to be per yesterdays chase. I was in Medicine Lodge and all i saw was a 40 mile long shelf cloud. All the tornadic storms were 75 or more mile north of me. I am gonna wait to see for today since i have to be back home bu 1900 (7pm).
If the clearing continues here in eastern ks, i would target the turnpike from EMP to TOP maybe as far west as JCT City on i-70.

New MD for NE kansas on the spc site. WW likely soon. 1117am

Convection starting to my southwest along the US HWY 75 corridor. 1127am
There is a line of storms starting from Omaha sw back to Concordia. 1316 hrs.