04/03/08 FCST: TX / OK / AR / MO

[cedwards]

The chase is a go today for me. I will be targeting the dryline south of SPS. I expect initiation around 22Z. I expect at the very least to see a nice supercell. I will be looking for localized backing of the winds that may increase the tornado potential.
I will be testing out the Alltel card with the amplifier. Hopefully I will have great coverage.
The chasecam will be active.

 

[Gerard Jebaily]

Im not sold. The overall conditions and chase terrain are unimpressive and not very desireable. Many key parameters which have been mentioned in the thread are questionable or not present. While the decision is easy for me not to chase becase im 1500 miles from the activity, I think even being in the area of it all would still make me decide quickly to stay in and save my gas money for the next one. For those of you saying "to heck with it, its a mod risk, im going!" I wish you the very best of luck.

 

[Steve Miller]

Many key parameters which have been mentioned in the thread are questionable or not present.

Wow, man - you just slammed about 10 people. 1500 miles is a long way from OU.

I still like today and plan to be west of Ardmore on 70 a little ways. I too will be streaming video.

 

[Kevin Rider]

Me and Jake Wallentine will be heading out as well today. I still have faith in today. We will be targeting around Wichita Falls. That may change depending on what the dryline does.

 

[Paul Redmond]

Why would someone from South Carolina even debate about going in a setup in Southern Oklahoma and Northern Texas and post that just a few hours before the event starts? I would highly doubt anyone from there is just going to come to the Plains on no notice and chase on most any day..

Granted the setup isn't perfect, but I'm trying to think of a setup that can't be nitpicked by the naysayers and hyped up by the storm enthusiests.

With that said looking at the parameters, I would start around Ardmore OK if I were to chase today.

I suspect that he was speaking tongue in cheek about an armchair chase

I think there is a lot of general agreement between Ardmore and Wichita Falls.

Unlike Mondays disappointment, I am concerned about initiation too far west. I can easily take the afternoon off, but I am facing a teleconference at 9AM tomorrow, so I may have to limit how far north I can go. My cowardly target is Mineral wells going up from San Antonio via 281. I hope something happens early since I am facing 10 hours of driving, and I am not as young as I used to be.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Tentatively, I'll be heading out with Dave Ewoldt from Okarche... target area most likely will be between the DFW area to SPS , I'm hoping that the earlier RUC may be a bit lax on projected shear and that winds will hopefully back a little more as the DL approaches.

Most likely, a few classic supercells with 1 to 3 confirmed TOR reports, hail to 3" in diameter and surface gusts to 70kts.

Rocky&family

 

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: Wichita Falls, TX TIME OF DEPARTURE: 2 PM. I took today off work weeks ago - so I will head out. PROS - Warm front, dryline, and surface low all in place with ample moisture in the warm sector. Nice BINOVC in Dallas this morning with blue sky above -so I expect ample surface heating. Stout SW flow aloft will aid in ventilating the updrafts and moving storms quickly to the northeast. CONS - Veering of surface winds this morning will limit convergence along the dryline. So, I will stick with the triple point and hope for more easterly winds there. I am not too concerned about the early morning convection west of Dallas. This might just leave a boundary for later today. On the other hand, a weaker cap could mean a lot of storms. TIM M.

 

[Gerard Jebaily]

Wow, man - you just slammed about 10 people. 1500 miles is a long way from OU.

I still like today and plan to be west of Ardmore on 70 a little ways. I too will be streaming video.

Perhaps my wording was perceived differently. I was refering to the questionable key parameters that previous posters already expressed doubts and concerns about and I didnt feel the need to mention specifically again. While today has many favorable conditions present, IMO I feel that there are to many questionable conditions in today's setup on top of undesireable terrain that make this a day not worth chasing.

 

[Shane Adams]

We're heading down to Ardmore and will decide from there our next move. Normally I love the area just east of a developing surface/mesolow but the meager h7-85 winds have me a bit concerned for tornado potential in that area...however....this spot is also the CAPE max so the instability could easily overcome the lack of sheer...we've all seen it a million times. I'm thinking storms will fire in less-than-ideal conditions but move east into an increasingly better environment. We'll probably play either the US380 or US82 corridors west of 35 and drift back east as the day progresses, watching our storms get better and better.

I can see how today isn't ideal for chasers, but it was never an outbreak, at least to my eyes...so I'm just not that shocked or disappointed from what I saw a few days ago. With chasing being so ridiculously easy as it is these days, I think a lot of the issues people have are actually having to think out there and do some old-school chasing

Of course you all know I'm just kidding

 

[Shane Hale]

Departing Now

Well I decided to pull the trigger... Myself and two other team members are heading to our initial target of Eastland Tx on I-20 and will more than likely move up to a Throckmorton to Graham TX area as things heat up... Hope to see some of you out today !!!

 

[David Hoadley]

Hoadley surface-based fcst from 10AM

Am home in Virginia this morning, so did a forecast map from the 1000CDT surface obs, using my surface-based-technique. I am aware that the frontal boundary is progged to drop south this evening. However, I felt obliged to share this forecast and risk looking foolish, in case it helps someone out today.

When chasing and in a motel room, I need every minute to do my analysis, before "house cleaning" kicks me out. Thus, I don't have time to compose and send messages like this. Note that this technique is biased to late spring storms, since that was the main database during its development. So if you use this, do so with some skepticism.

My forecast center is Fairview, OK (SW of Ponca), and the area is bounded (clockwise) roughly from Ardmore to Lawton, Clinton, Gage, Buffalo, Ponca, Sapulpa, Bromide and back to Ardmore.

Good luck, and I may join you next week.

- - - David Hoadley

 

[Rich Thompson]

Dave,

For what it's worth, last night's 4 km NSSL WRF model run produced a lone supercell across nrn OK. I guess you're not completely alone in your forecast!

I'll likely join the hordes somewhere along US 380 this evening in N TX, hoping for just enough low-level shear/moisture to sneak out a tornado.

Rich T.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Well I have arrived home just on west/SW side of D/FW metroplex and have looked at all sorts of data and think most of the latest posters have nailed it. I like the area from Graham down to Breckenridge. Looking at latest NAM run, it keeps 850 winds back further west though veered but I still like it b/c I know with CAP and what not, that veered flow will back slightly with approach of sfc low and t-storm initiation. Im prob going to head out of here soon and go west little bit to Mineral Wells which gives me good road options all directions. So basically right now its wait and see.
Good luck to all

 

[Angie Norris]

If I could make it out today, I'd be heading towards the Waurika area to take advantage of the dryline punch afterwhile. Good luck and happy hunting to all!!

 

[Bill Tabor]

Darn sfc low still in nw OK and moving east so far. Not South as models progged. This is veering sfc flow in northern Tx, and so far hurting the show IMO.