Bill Tabor
EF5
Shane congrats! I don't think that's a possible tornado..it looks definite to me. First the funnel is ragged, then there is rotation, and then a solid, snaking laminar funnel goes to ground behind the trees planted IMO. Not sure why you guys couldn't tell that in person but maybe because you had the video zoomed in. I think on your video it is obvious! Cool! Nice catch.
I feel a bit bad because I made pretty much a pinpoint forecast time and place and decided not to chase because of the low probability. Here was my forecast to the local group from the morning:
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"Well guys, I've reviewed everything...sfc maps, Nam, Ruc, forecast soundings, parameters, etc. Appears to me there may be an option for a dedicated chaser anxious to see a storm. I pick ABI (Abilene) at ~ 0z (7pm) - well at least that region including Sweetwater, Brownwood, then a bit east, and a bit north. Looks to me that it meets the minimum criteria in my mind for a potential supercell with low end tornado potential. Granted any tornadoes produced would probably be about a 1 on the Sig Torn scale or less.
I'm seeing LI's to -3 (I think I saw a -6 on one map), Cape around 560 - but maybe a hair higher - after all supposedly good cold air aloft and good low level lapse rates. Helicity 100ish, EHI to 1, looks like some mid level wave influence albeit weak between 18z and 0z, sfc low currently just west of the area showing convergence at light (likely elevated) rain ATTM. As for winds shear, etc...Sfc is fairly light from primarily 180 by 0z but potentially doable, 850's back a bit by 0z to almost 175 -180ish, 700mb on the low end but providing proper directional shear - doable, 500mb light but doable, 300mb upper jet adequate, 250mb adequate. Can't tell but there may be some additional lift between the southern branch jet (overhead) and the one further north. Ours if zonal, the one north is more kinked. The region between the two ABI to much further north ..KS is in a divergent region between the two jets. Precipitation forecast on all models I've checked including WRF 4km indicate possible supercell development in that region by 0zish.
Will I chase it? Not sure. Anything on the minimal side could either turn out as I describe above, a little better, or something could screw it up like cirrus, or inversion - or maybe the cold front decides to become more aggressive and wash it out quicker making it go linear. Regardless, this is my take..I think it is minimal doable, so take that for what it is."
*******************
Oh well, as you know if you don't chase 'em you don't catch 'em. Congratulations on a nice early season surprise catch!
I feel a bit bad because I made pretty much a pinpoint forecast time and place and decided not to chase because of the low probability. Here was my forecast to the local group from the morning:
***************
"Well guys, I've reviewed everything...sfc maps, Nam, Ruc, forecast soundings, parameters, etc. Appears to me there may be an option for a dedicated chaser anxious to see a storm. I pick ABI (Abilene) at ~ 0z (7pm) - well at least that region including Sweetwater, Brownwood, then a bit east, and a bit north. Looks to me that it meets the minimum criteria in my mind for a potential supercell with low end tornado potential. Granted any tornadoes produced would probably be about a 1 on the Sig Torn scale or less.
I'm seeing LI's to -3 (I think I saw a -6 on one map), Cape around 560 - but maybe a hair higher - after all supposedly good cold air aloft and good low level lapse rates. Helicity 100ish, EHI to 1, looks like some mid level wave influence albeit weak between 18z and 0z, sfc low currently just west of the area showing convergence at light (likely elevated) rain ATTM. As for winds shear, etc...Sfc is fairly light from primarily 180 by 0z but potentially doable, 850's back a bit by 0z to almost 175 -180ish, 700mb on the low end but providing proper directional shear - doable, 500mb light but doable, 300mb upper jet adequate, 250mb adequate. Can't tell but there may be some additional lift between the southern branch jet (overhead) and the one further north. Ours if zonal, the one north is more kinked. The region between the two ABI to much further north ..KS is in a divergent region between the two jets. Precipitation forecast on all models I've checked including WRF 4km indicate possible supercell development in that region by 0zish.
Will I chase it? Not sure. Anything on the minimal side could either turn out as I describe above, a little better, or something could screw it up like cirrus, or inversion - or maybe the cold front decides to become more aggressive and wash it out quicker making it go linear. Regardless, this is my take..I think it is minimal doable, so take that for what it is."
*******************
Oh well, as you know if you don't chase 'em you don't catch 'em. Congratulations on a nice early season surprise catch!
