03/16/05 FCST Red River- Central TX

40 kt soutwesterly flow at 50 hPa and decent low level moisture are progged via the GFS 144 hr. Slightly veered low level flow is more conducive to a squally mode of convection. Things could start to get interesting over spring break, like clockwork along the Red River.
 
NCEP forecasters are not too keen on the recent GFS cycles.... a few points of notice from the recent model diagnostics discussion:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/WNH/PREEPD

AT THIS POINT IN TIME... THE POSITIVE HGT ANOMALY CENTER ASSOC WITH THE NERN PAC/WRN CANADA RIDGE LIKELY HAS NOT RETROGRADED QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GFS-TYPE SOLN.
.......
GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR THE ECMWF HANDLING OF ENERGY INITIALLY OVER THE WEST... FCST OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION ALSO PARALLELS THE ECMWF. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHAT FORM THE WRN CONUS ENERGY WILL TAKE AS IT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS

I'm not an expert on medium range model behavior - so I think I'll give these guys the upper hand and say that the GFS solution showing a strong lee cyclone is not very likely to materialize. Even taking the 00Z GFS solution literally - it has a strong Gulf coastal boundary that locks up deep moisture to the south - so if an event arises as shown by the GFS - the greatest threat region for severe storms appears to be more toward the SE US. At least it's only mid-March.

Glen
 
This potential system looks hosed to me - but then I'm not a very accomplished model analyser.

I didn't even look at anything like 500mb winds on the ETA, but just took a quick glance at the projected surface conditions through this period. Screwy surface winds with almost NO southerly-oriented directions. Even if the winds were projected to be out of the southeast, I don't see how we could expect to see any moisture. It'd be like squeezing blood out of a turnip.

Sorry - roll on April!

KR
 
I think severe wx is out this time around but should be a great snowstorm for the tx panhandle over the next 48hrs.

Looks like up to 10-12 inches for some areas by wednesday afternoon.
 
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