01/02/06: FCST: Ohio Valley and Southward

[Scott Olson]

A lot of things look pretty good about this setup. The only thing that bothers me a bit may be storms firing off to early hampering the ability to reach progged surface instabilities. Lots of 0 CINH by 18z and precipitation prior to.
There isn't a ridiclouis amount of lift going on though and the moisture that is to be in place in GA is quite deep and definately sufficent. This of course is always a concern with any setup.

 

[SteveCarter]

IF THE INITIAL AREA OF RAINFALL BECOMES WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT...THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE THE SECOND PART OF THE SYSTEM COULD BE MUCH WEAKER BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING AND COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL MAY CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT IF THAT OCCURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OF THE WORST SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS IN THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA HAVE OCCURRED WHEN A MORNING EPISODE PRECEDED THE MAIN ACTION LATER IN THE DAY.

I live half way between Athens, GA and Greenville, SC. Local forecasters here are getting VERY emphatic about the seriousness of this potential severe outbreak. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE SECOND WAVE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT IN NORTH CAROLINA.

I can't stress enough...don't try to chase NORTH of I-85, from Atlanta eastward. Far to hilly. My "Bullseye" will be Madison, Ga up to my home town of Seneca, SC. All in all, it looks like a good day, but I really hope the clouds break up and the rain subsides to allow some heating.

*****Looking at the new data that has just come out (1AM), my target area has plunged about 200 miles south. Macon, GA, and perhaps south and west of there.*****

 

[Scott Olson]

NAM now seems to have a better handle on forecasted ongoing precipitations effects on instability. The Dryline looks very well defined coming into Alabama and a slight bulge is also showing up. Instability is quite strong in W-C AL, so best sceanrio is for a storm to fire there and move into the stronger helicity that is located in all areas East. By 21z both states have sufficent Helicity for Tornadic supercells. Though Georgia only averages about 500 j/kg SBCAPE, Alabama does 1-2k J/KG SBCAPE and 0-3km SRH 300+ SRH. . I still like the low level directional shear along the secondary warmfront, but forecasted cloud cover and SBCAPE could makes this area unattractive. A possible OFB forming Between FL/GA/AL in the morning could provide some extra helicity in the max heating area in AL.

Target: SW GA, some clearing in NE GA in the morning could be a big sign of things to come.

Good luck to all who are out tommorow, stay safe!
-Scott Olson.