Trying to make predictions about the weather just a few days in advance can be a chore. So I'm just not sure how accurate we can be in our assessment of the entire year. But with that said, I'll take a stab at it.
I have noticed that the SRN Plains and Deep South haven't been as active the past few years as is often the case. That's not to say there was no storms or tornadoes, but these areas have been just a bit below average it seems.
I have also noticed that we haven't seen many active early Spring periods either, which may explain the observation I made earlier regarding the deep south.
I think this may change this year. If I must make a prediction, then that prediction will be a much more active March and April, along with more action across the SRN Plains.
It seems we are in a pattern where system after system will be moving across this area. With Spring approaching, it's only a matter of time until we get a day where enough things come together to create a favorable severe thunderstorm environment. If this pattern remains, then there will likely be many storm days over these areas.
So, my prediction is this:
If you are in TX, OK and AR.....be ready! And if you're S of the Ohio River and E of the Mississippi River, be on guard! I feel OK and TX will go back to the days of old, dominating the tornado picture, while the SRN US States may experience the most active storm season since the 1998/1999 years. It also would not surprise me to see a late season (perhaps June) significant outbreak somewhere well outside the traditional "Tornado Alley"....such as up N in Michigan or in the NERN US somewhere.
Can I prove any of this? Of course not. It's just a hunch based on a gut feeling, if that accounts for anything. Part of it (a very small part) comes from this being an El Nino year. I am not convinced it creates conditions for tornadoes, but I haven't totally discounted it either. The other, more major reason I feel this way is simply because many of these areas I have mentioned are long overdue. You aren't going to keep TX and OK from having major severe weather outbreaks on a regular basis for long.
Now only time will tell what's going to happen. But I feel we will get another good to above average tornado year, as they seem to come in threes.
-George
