Worst Case Tornado Scenario(imaginary)

[Simon Timm]

Say we have an E-f5 tornado going through downtown Chicago, and it was about the intensity of the 1999 Moore F5. How many casualties would there be? How much damage would there be the mid and hige-rise buildings in the City, and would it be the costliest event in US history? Just an interesting thing to think about.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

This situation seems to be discussed often, but I see it more when talking about the DFW metroplex. I believe studies have been done relocating the May 3rd outbreak so that the EF-5 went straight through downtown Dallas. I have a hard time believing that an EF-5 through Dallas at rush hour wouldn't kill well over 10,000 people, and I hope that none of us ever live to see something like that happen.

 

[Doug Mitchell]

The most powerful tornado in the world hitting the highest population density with the worst protection.

What do I win?

 

[Jason Foster]

How about a DC tornado event.

Sarcastically...the worse case tornado scenario would be one that runs right through Hollywood, and Beverly Hills, killing all the hollywood stars and shutting down the studios....that would be horrible....

But seriously, being from DC, I have heard of and seen a little bit about looking at the scenario of having a tornado come through the Capital City. Because of the LaPlata event, many officials realized the fact that and super strong tornado could hit the District. In a worse case scenario, it could shut down the city, the congress and more. Even worse is if it meant hundreds injured and even the possibility of the high ranking government officials dying in such event. This could have a domino affect because of the void of power in agencies, political offices and more. It could also mean that buildings that house agency's HQ could be destroyed or disrupted to the point that there would be an inability to respond to the disaster.

Can you image a tornado that would destroy the White House or Capital, the two most important buildings in the country. The LaPlata even certainly proved it is possible.

 

[Tyler_Costantini]

I think tornado played a part in running off the British during the war of 1812 in DC..

it came close to the White House.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

I think tornado played a part in running off the British during the war of 1812 in DC..

it came close to the White House.

Found this.

http://www.roanoke.com/weather/wb/79760

 

[craig buchanan]

Military weather control goes back a long way

I think tornado played a part in running off the British during the war of 1812 in DC..

it came close to the White House.

Living in a college town that has many groups working in weather modification and high energy research I often hear of the government weather control capabilities. I even saw the effects strange weather played on the first Gulf War. But, I think this incident and the linked article give new evidence that the US has been engaged in weather control for military purposes for far longer than any of us suspected...


In all seriousness, my emergency management background shudders at the thought of a major tornado hitting any large city, but epically one not in an area where codes take this in to consideration. The loss of life would be staggering and the economic impact could cripple the whole US economy.

 

[Jason Foster]

Not the only one.

That tornado wasn't the only one to hit the city. I'll have to ask Kevin Ambrose (quoted book) next time I see him about other severe weather events in DC. I do know the others so far have been weak.

The well known story of the so-called first storm chase of Benjamin Franklin chasing a "cyclone" as they were known then, on horseback in the Maryland suburbs of DC.

 

[Shane Adams]

It really doesn't matter what city you choose, even the largest tornadoes are only 2 miles wide at the max, which is a tiny portion of a metropolitan area. The 5-3-99 OKC tornado is what would happen in any city. The only difference would be the number of fatalities, which would be exponentionally larger in most areas outside of KS/OK/TXpan (and yes, this includes DFW, which, for a Tornado Alley city, has some of the most pathetic severe weather coverage in existence).

I keep seeing the "downtown whatever" scenario being thrown out; you'd probably want that actually, because steel high rises stand a much better chance against a tornado (even a violent one) than residential structures ever would. Look at what an F2 can do to a typical neighborhood, and then look at downtown Ft Worth from March 28, 2000. No contest.

 

[rdale]

Weather & Forecasting had a slew of articles over the past year using GIS data to take actual tornadoes from history and putting them over different population centers.

 

[Angie Norris]

I keep seeing the "downtown whatever" scenario being thrown out; you'd probably want that actually, because steel high rises stand a much better chance against a tornado (even a violent one) than residential structures ever would. Look at what an F2 can do to a typical neighborhood, and then look at downtown Ft Worth from March 28, 2000. No contest.[/quote]

Wasn't there a high rise building in Lubbock that was moved or twisted by an F5 a few years back? Seems like I remember something about that.

Actually, a lot of the damage/injuries/deaths from high rises would be from flying glass and similar debris, not to mention the difficulty of getting to adequate shelter in that type of structure. Give me a safe room in a residential structure anytime.

 

[Simon Timm]

I second Angie. The fort worth tornado was not by any means insignificant, however I do agree with Shane on the grounds that a tornado will do more structural damage to wood houses than skyscrapers. But like I was saying, the Fort Worth tornado was very significant. Many low rise and mid rise buildings were seriously damaged or destroyed. Though the many high rise buildings in fort worth were not structurally deformed, as in the Lubbock tornado, they did too have significant damage to windows, and some interior walls. The Cash America building was almost scheduled for demolition, I believe.
This was only upper end f2 damage, and was one of costliest tornadoes in American history. (Not trying to start any fights or arguments, just putting my point on the table

 

[Chris Nuttall]

Say we have an E-f5 tornado going through downtown Chicago, and it was about the intensity of the 1999 Moore F5. How many casualties would there be? How much damage would there be the mid and hige-rise buildings in the City, and would it be the costliest event in US history? Just an interesting thing to think about.

I believe this might be what you are looking for. However, there are some key questions that are brought up regarding the how the death statistics were obtained. Check out responses on that article here and here followed by a reply by the original authors.

 

[AlDanks]

I think a major tornado hitting a major sporting event - Indianapolis 500, a major Nascar race, the "big house" in Ann Arbor, or any major college football stadium.

Major concentration of people with little shelter and little chance of escape.

 

[Dave Kaplow]

The worst case? OK, how's this:

July 4th (or thereabouts), a big nighttime F5 wedge rolls over lower Manhattan where millions have gathered to watch the fireworks. I can't think of a worse scenario that's still within the realm of the plausible.