Winter to come "With A Vengence"

Jordan Hartley

Came across this article at accuweather.com which in a way confirms some thoughts I have had about this winter so far. You know if you take a look at a sat image over the pacific the storms are starting to stack up. I know us here in the US have a big one on the way for this weekend but i've had my eye on the one behind it which should effect the US probley sometime in the next 8-14 days depending on its speed. If the weather stays as active as it has so far this winter than 07' might turn out to be a decent year for storm chasing....(Fingures crossed/Knock on Wood). Here is a link to the article:

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/pressroom.asp?pr=wx_258.htm
 
Hmmm. My impression is that the MRF models have been pretty consistent lately in building a ridge off the US west coast that morphs into an Omega block with a Hudson's Bay vortex. I'd venture that the eastern US is set for a rather cold and dry spell -- but not excessively so for the end of January. FWIW.
 
Sad thing is, he'll be getting pub for this sensationalized forecast. Not saying it won't happen, but Accuweather has ALWAYS used catch headlines and such which I wouldn't mind except they are dealing with events that might not ever happen. I guess they feel its worth the risk of having your foot in your mouth a few times to get it right a few others.
 
Climatologically speaking, his assessment of the teleconnections is correct. I believe our NWS also made the comparison to the 1977/1978 winter.

BTW... I wouldn't be so quick to bannish a met simply because they had a wrong forecast or two. Bastardi seems like a pretty cool guy and his winter weather stuff is usually pretty accurate. If people can learn to get over the AccuWeather label, there are some pretty decent mets there. Oh well, I guess it's kind of like how all newbies have to hate the movie "Twister" just because one or two other chasers dislike it.
 
The reason JB is disliked by professional met's is not because of his skill, but because of his methods. Let your forecast be your forecast - don't come out with bold print "the East Coast will be hammered" unless you're VERY sure the east coast will be hammered.

Meteorologists know that you can't predict a hurricane strike 3 months in advance, yet he does it and then hypes it to no end.

Does it look like we're in a colder pattern? Certainly. Am I going to send out a press release to announce it, or just put it in my forecast???
 
rdale said:
The reason JB is disliked by professional met's is not because of his skill, but because of his methods. Let your forecast be your forecast - don't come out with bold print "the East Coast will be hammered" unless you're VERY sure the east coast will be hammered.

Meteorologists know that you can't predict a hurricane strike 3 months in advance, yet he does it and then hypes it to no end.

Does it look like we're in a colder pattern? Certainly. Am I going to send out a press release to announce it, or just put it in my forecast???
Click to expand...

You would if your employer told you to ;-)

Who's to say that his employer didn't tell him "Joe, I want a mid-winter press release issued by XX time". I know the TV mets here in Detroit are always over-hyping stuff, but I always attribute that to their employer.

I have no doubt that someone higher up than Bastardi is behind the issuance of press-releases such as this.
 
You don't know JB then... This is (and always has been) his method of operations. There really isn't anyone "higher" than him in the company chain. JB doesn't issue the actual press release, but if you read any of his columns or blogs you'll see that he is the sole source of this info.
 
I used to subscribe to AccuWeather Pro a few years ago, mainly to get his column, and dropped it after forcing myself to realize that while he made everything sound exciting (most of the time), it wasn't worth the constant disappointment and eerie feeling that the subscriber is being played to some extent. I've seen several people who have worked with him say that he believes everything he writes and pours his heart into his forecasts, but even so, they far too often seem to be an illustration of the "worst case" (or best case) scenario that gets cleverly twisted into what seems like an outright forecast for said scenario, but leaves enough wiggle room to be backed off from in the end if necessary. I can't remember a single day during my time reading his column in the winter when he wasn't talking about some winter storm threat, even if it was a week or two out.

All in all, I think he gets a little bit too much of a bad rap and sometimes from people who assume too much without having read his stuff, but on the other hand, he's largely earned the reputation he has at least in the enthusiast circle... JMHO.
 
rdale said:
You don't know JB then... This is (and always has been) his method of operations. There really isn't anyone "higher" than him in the company chain. JB doesn't issue the actual press release, but if you read any of his columns or blogs you'll see that he is the sole source of this info.
Click to expand...

Regardless of belief, Bastardi-bashing has gotten old over the years - perhaps he's the new pinata, much like "Warren Faidley" was in the past. I too used to subscribe to his column, but dropped it due to financial reasons.

But, with that said... If you bash the guy and/or his forecast, at least back it up with facts on WHY you think it's inaccurate. Nothing is worse than a nay-sayer who can't back up what they're saying.
 
scott r currens said:
His 2006 hurricane predictions were an absolute joke, it was like reading the farmer almanac. I don’t care what my employer says, I’d quit my job before attaching my name to trash like that.

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=8927&highlight=2006+hurricane+forecast
Click to expand...

And if I recall, the NHC forecast was just as much of a joke... Just goes to show that mets have their bad days. Also goes to show that some people simply can't understand that fact, unfortunately.

EDIT: After going through that thread, I see that I'm guilty as charged LOL
 
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