Will this be a good year for tornadoes

[STurner]

It seems like it has been a long time since we had any major tornado events and I am starting to get really bored. The last really major event I believe was in June. I find myself looking at SPC forecasts several times in on e day and am hoping for a major event. Im not the best with understanding the models but wonder if this will be a good year for tornadoes. Why quite a few of you will be out chasing I will be in my own home tracking storms on radar. It is like the intensity can be felt all over my house when a major tornado event is occuring. I just hope soon all the ingreidients will come into play.

 

[Shane Adams]

Im not the best with understanding the models but wonder if this will be a good year for tornadoes.

Ask me again in December

 

[Simon Timm]

There really is no telling how active this season will be. Tornadoes are very difficult, if not almost impossible to predict ahead of time. Unlike hurricanes, tornadoes are much smaller scale and act very chaotically. I can only hope next season will be like last(of course, not for those poor souls that lost their homes and loved ones)

 

[Jason Foster]

If you mean for the entire year.....yes, 2009 will be good. But it will be all about where the tornadoes hit, and when the hit, and how chase-able they will be.

 

[Jim Leonard]

It would be unusual for any tornado outbreak before the middle of next month. If we were in an EL-Nino year one would expect to see tornado episodes in the southeastern part of the country. This year is a La-Nina year so we would expect the winter months to be somewhat quiet. As a chaser I rather wait for the more normal plains type of occurences later in the year. It seems that when you see a lot of activity in the SE early in the year the plains are quiet when spring comes.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

Uh oh, I hear a global warming discussion in the breeze! lol!
I thought it was interesting that the NWS seems to believe that tornadoes are going to be on the rise until 2021. Hedging the global warning bet? Who knows?
If you are asking for a guess based on a veiled bet that this will be as active as last year or more - I'll bite.
...Yes; I think this will be a 'high risk' year for tornadoes.

 

[Adam Lucio]

It would be unusual for any tornado outbreak before the middle of next month. If we were in an EL-Nino year one would expect to see tornado episodes in the southeastern part of the country. This year is a La-Nina year so we would expect the winter months to be somewhat quiet. As a chaser I rather wait for the more normal plains type of occurences later in the year. It seems that when you see a lot of activity in the SE early in the year the plains are quiet when spring comes.

Wasnt last year a la nina year too?

Last year got off to an unusually fast start though. That should not be viewed as the norm. Im no climatologist but there have been some pattern extremes happening lately with troughs digging in and bringing snow to las vegas...right now one of the coldest air masses in years is sitting over alaska just waiting to come diving down here [ugh.] Eventually everything will have to do a flip flop...and when that happens...

In my head I have this goofy analogy that the most basic concept of storm genesis [warm air vs cold] is like a tug of war battle...if a colder airmass locks itself in place longer than normal...it will take a stronger punch of warm air to shove it back north...like last year around here our march and april...and first half of may was pretty cool and boring...but when spring finally made its push during the later half of May and first part of june...well...we all know how that period went. Most of our entire 2008 seasons were made during those 3 weeks. Then the summer air mass took over and things came to a screeching hault. Even more so than usual.

I forsee it being a good year as well...but its Janruary and Ive been without severe storms for months and my wishcasting could be getting the better of me.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Im not the best with understanding the models but wonder if this will be a good year for tornadoes.

All I can say to that is I sure hope so!

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I can only hope next season will be like last(of course, not for those poor souls that lost their homes and loved ones)

Despite a vast number of tornadoes, I would guess a good majority of "chasers" (including myself) are hoping for something a little better than 2008 offered. Seeing multiple tornadoes again and again was great, but some more "typical" late spring/summer type setups would be nice...

 

[Skip Talbot]

There will probably be somewhere in the vicinity of 1000 tornadoes. This will be a good year for tornadoes. Will it be a good year for chasers? That is the real question.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Ed Berry's blog is well known for detecting pattern change, if you can understand it lol. He's on a level of thinking/understanding I'll probably never even come close to! But his blog is a great tool to use during the spring for > 2 weeks out.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I like La Nina years ...

 

[Chris Lott]

Some nice dryline storms in the TX panhandle sure would be nice this year. I think the panhandle has been void of its usual spring weather so hopefully it lights up this year, and if so, I plan on being there.

 

[STurner]

There will probably be somewhere in the vicinity of 1000 tornadoes. This will be a good year for tornadoes. Will it be a good year for chasers? That is the real question.

I hope it will be a good year for chasers. Even though I am not really big into chasing it would be really cool to actually see a monsterous violent tornado in real life. I tip my hat to you chasers for going ot there as much as you do in any given year. In addition, to as much money as you spend I hope this year rocks for you guys.

 

[Terry Tyler]

Shane, you can count on atleast 900 tornadoes with 2-3 major events in any given year. As Skip said, it will be a good year for tornadoes. Ofcourse, the statement im making is based on climatological facts. No one knows where or what magnitude or what day tornadoes will occur right now, but they will. The weather will keep on doing as it has been long before weve been here.

Be prepared for a good year. Nature wont let you down.