Why no early tornado warning in Eagle Pass?

[beaudodson]

Why was there no tornado warning earlier for this storm? They even said there was likely a tornado with it. So why did they not warn? A lot of people are asking this same question today. It was more than apparent that this was a tornadic storm.

http://img250.imageshack.us/img250/8223/mexicantornadona4.gif

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

TXC323-250015-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-070425T0015Z/
MAVERICK TX-
630 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR MAVERICK COUNTY...

AT 626 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF EAGLE PASS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS LARGE THUNDERSTORM LIKELY CONTAINS A
TORNADO OVER MEXICO...WITH THE TORNADO TRACK EXPECTED TO PASS 5 TO 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAGLE PASS THROUGH 7 PM. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
AFFECT EL INDIO AFTER 7 PM.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
EAGLE PASS BY 650 PM CDT...
9 MILES NORTHWEST OF EL INDIO BY 715 PM CDT...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.




-----------

Why would the San Antonio Office (OR ANY OTHER OFFICE) do that? I would like to hear some opinions on this...I am sure there is going to be an investigation by the NWS to find out what happened.

Thoughts?

 

[mark plate]

It happens all the time. There are many times when the severe thunderstorm is entering a county way ahead of the tornadic part of the storm. Rather than issue a tornado warning perhaps an hour before the tornadic circulation enters the county, a severe thunderstorm warning is issued first. Then when the circulation gets closer...say 15 minutes or so from the county...then the tornado warning is issued. It appears this is what happened last night as I believe I heard that the tornado warning was issued 15 minutes before the tornado hit Eagle Pass. Eagle Pass from what I understand is right on the border, so was the first place affected in the county. There is nothing at all wrong with a 15-minute warning. An hour warning is overkill and most people will think the threat has passed if no tornado has occurred within an hour. Obviously the severe thunderstorm warning was issued well before 630 pm since the statement to update the warning was issued at that time. They mention that the tornado may affect the county after 7 pm...basically saying we're watching it, and once it gets close enough and it's evident action will be needed, then we'll issue the tornado warning. As I said, 15 minutes is more than enough time. In an ideal world, no tornado warning would ever be valid for more than 30-45 minutes to cut down on needless overwarning. Needless overwarning is every bit as bad as not warning at all.

Another reason this is sometimes done is a variation on this same theme. The severe part is in the county way ahead of the circulation. Perhaps the circulation is only 30 minutes or so away, but the movement is such that it will be a close call as to whether the circulation even makes it into the county. Here again, waiting another 15 minutes or so is the prudent thing to do rather than possibly unnecessarily warning a county where the circulation will never reach.

Based on this severe weather statement and what I've heard about a 15-minute lead time on the tornado warning, I would say San Antonio did an exemplary job last evening and should be looking at a possible gold medal if their overall performance was as good as it looks from this statement and from other things I have heard.

 

[John Peters]

Based on this severe weather statement and what I've heard about a 15-minute lead time on the tornado warning, I would say San Antonio did an exemplary job last evening and should be looking at a possible gold medal if their overall performance was as good as it looks from this statement and from other things I have heard.

I agree. As the storm was about to cross the boarder, the Eagle Pass area became tornado warned. There were mentions from the San Antonio office of the potential for a "strong tornado" associated with the storm and that the situation was "extremely dangerous and life threatening".

Sounds to me like they were completely aware of the severity of this storm and the danger it imposed.

Edit: I was watching this storm pretty closely as it crossed the boarder, and I was somewhat convinced (and relieved) that it had passed safely to the south of Eagle Pass through a less populated area. Sadly I was mistaken

 

[Kevin Polston]

I think the answer to your question is within the warning text itself......they deemed the tornado to be in Mexico and going to pass southwest of the town....so therefore they decided not to issue a tornado warning. Remember this is just conjecture on my part and I have no idea what the warning forecaster was thinking...but it seems that is a logical assumption you could make. Looking at the radar loop you posted it seems as if the hook does stay in Mexico initially and passes to the southwest of Eagle Pass before moving into TX. So my guess is that the warning forecaster was just trying to be as accurate as possible and was thinking the tornado would stay on the Mexican side of the border....at least for awhile.

 

[Jim Tang]

The tornado warning was issued at 6:51, as the storm was crossing the border. By that time the damage in Mexico was already done, and the communities near the border only had about 5-10 min lead time.

 

[beaudodson]

It happens all the time. There are many times

Based on this severe weather statement and what I've heard about a 15-minute lead time on the tornado warning, I would say San Antonio did an exemplary job last evening and should be looking at a possible gold medal if their overall performance was as good as it looks from this statement and from other things I have heard.

A newspaper reported the 15 minutes. According to those who tracked the storm that is not correct - it was not 15 minutes. In addition to that...by the time the warning was issued and people actually got the warning from television even more time likely would have passed. Weather radios of course would have gone off immediately. My understanding is that there was not 15 minutes warning lead time on the tornado warning.

 

[beaudodson]

The tornado warning was issued at 6:51, as the storm was crossing the border. By that time the damage in Mexico was already done, and the communities near the border only had about 5-10 min lead time.

Right and if that is the case then San Antonio did indeed drop the ball. IF that is accurate...others have said the same thing you did.

 

[beaudodson]

I agree. As the storm was about to cross the boarder, the Eagle Pass area became tornado warned. There were mentions from the San Antonio office of the potential for a "strong tornado" associated with the storm and that the situation was "extremely dangerous and life threatening".

Sounds to me like they were completely aware of the severity of this storm and the danger it imposed.

If that is the case then perhaps we don't need tornado warnings. Why issue a severe thunderstorm warning with a strong tornado associated with it? Doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Just my opinion though and we all have one. If they were completely aware of the severity then Eagle Pass would have had more than a few minutes lead time. IMO

I realize that mistakes are made. They always will be. This one is so obvious though that I think it deserves some discussion.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

To shed some light on this we have an animation of the radar for the Eagle Pass storm here:

http://www.stormtrack.org/07apr24mex/

The loop is about 12 MB so will take a short bit of time to fully load.

From this loop it looks to me that the tornado threat was certainly present early on. However the storm looked like it was going to track well south of Eagle Pass along the river but at the last minute deviated to the left just as it got to Piedras Negras. I think that might have been the culprit. It's too bad we don't have any forecasters from EWX here to comment... I have no idea who works there and I've never known anyone who has, even when I lived in Austin.

Tim

 

[Jeff Snyder]

The tornado warning was issued at 6:51, as the storm was crossing the border. By that time the damage in Mexico was already done, and the communities near the border only had about 5-10 min lead time.

I'd agree with Mark Plate's comments above 99.9% of the time, but I just can't do so in this case.

In this case, they may have had even less time than Jim suggested. As I posted in the 4/24 DISC thread, it appears, from SRV imagery, that the mesocyclone crossed the river very neary 2351UTC. I'm almost always all for the "people just didn't pay attention" argument when tornado warnings really were issued with a good lead time, but this doesn't appear to have been the case. Given the history of the storm (which was known by the wording of the SVR warnings), I'm really not sure it was prudent to have waited until 2351 UTC to issue a tornado. Hindsight is always 20/20, but they certainly didn't give a lot of lead time (if any, for those right on the border/river). Looking at Base Reflectivity data, the supercell had a very nasty hook on it just WNW of Eagle Pass at least by 2322UTC (see Frame 41 on Tim's loop). I just find it odd that the office knew it was likely producing a tornado, yet waited to pull the gun on a tornado warning until the tornado was already crossing the very (or very, very nearly about to cross the river).

Here's an SRV3 image of the mesocyclone as it just crossed into TX... Note that the time of the image is 0053:

http://www.tornadocentral.com/now/eaglepass/4-25-07 2351 SRV3.png

I have more imagery from earlier and later at http://www.tornadocentral.com/now/eaglepass/ ... *.rv3 files can be downloaded (for viewing in GRLevel3) at http://www.tornadocentral.com/now/eaglepass/GR3/

 

[Terry Tyler]

i just dont understand...why not issue a tornado warning anyway...clearly it was producing...just because the people are in mexico, doesnt mean you shouldent issue a tornado warning...isnt the goal of the NWS to protect life and property? it wouldent be that hard to pull the warning out long before it came across the border...i know they dont issue warnings or anything for mexico, but if people are going to die...you should issue a warning...reguardless of political boundarys...

 

[Mike Johnston]

I have to agree with Beau's concern. At the time of the initial SVR warning, this was clearly a tornadic storm. The SVR warning contemplated the tornadic portion of the storm would pass the town to the SW; however, the international border in the immediate vicinity of Eagle Pass is oriented N/S. Moreover, there is another small community (Rosita) located to the S of Eagle Pass, between there and El Indio (that was mentioned in the initial warning as being in the projected track). ANY margin of safety at all around the projected track would have resulted in a polygon covering U.S. territory. When I read the initial warning as it was issued, I was perplexed, and still am.

 

[beaudodson]

Another issue is that it WAS a populated area. I might understand a bit more if we were talking about open fields or whatever. I am sure there will be more coming out about this in the coming days and weeks. I am sure the office (as any office would and I know we all respect those running the radars and in charge of putting out those warnings) regrets it now...what is done is done.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

i just dont understand...why not issue a tornado warning anyway...clearly it was producing...just because the people are in mexico, doesnt mean you shouldent issue a tornado warning...isnt the goal of the NWS to protect life and property? it wouldent be that hard to pull the warning out long before it came across the border...i know they dont issue warnings or anything for mexico, but if people are going to die...you should issue a warning...reguardless of political boundarys...

If you're suggesting that they should have issued a tornado warning for Mexico, I don't think that's possible.

I agree that they should have issued a tornado warning earlier / in a more timely manner, but they can't issue one for Mexico. In this case, they probably should have (IMO) issued a tornado warning for the Eagle Pass area (central Maverick County) for a tornado that was likely to cross into the county from Mexico. I don't think there's anything in NWS policy that would prevent an NWSFO from warning for a storm or tornado that is occurring out of the jurisdiction of the NWS (e.g. in Mexico) if that activity is expected to move into their jurisdiction (e.g. TX). No implications with political boundaries aside from the fact that the NWS can't warn for Mexico.

 

[Gary Stofer]

If you're suggesting that they should have issued a tornado warning for Mexico, I don't think that's possible.

I agree that they should have issued a tornado warning earlier / in a more timely manner, but they can't issue one for Mexico. In this case, they probably should have (IMO) issued a tornado warning for the Eagle Pass area (central Maverick County) for a tornado that was likely to cross into the county from Mexico. I don't think there's anything in NWS policy that would prevent an NWSFO from warning for a storm or tornado that is occurring out of the jurisdiction of the NWS (e.g. in Mexico) if that activity is expected to move into their jurisdiction (e.g. TX). No implications with political boundaries aside from the fact that the NWS can't warn for Mexico.

I think thats what he was saying, just issue the torn warning for eagle pass early. I recall during nasty squall events KIND has issued blanket severe wx for multiple counties up to 5 or 10 minutes before it has moved into the next county just to cover the bases. There was no reason to delay it like they did until its practically on top of the town.