Updated Forecast for 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Randy Zipser]

ABC News posted this story on 08/07/2025 about an updated forecast for the remainder of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:

Above-normal activity predicted for remainder of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA says

 

[William Monfredo]

Not really a fan of lameness masquerading as a forecast. From the article, NOAA...
"There is now a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 15% chance of a below-normal season."
Gee, let me flip a coin...Once again, a somewhat misleading headline.
"...forecasting 13 to 18 total named..."
and NOAA applies the names...oh, that's cozy.
Not to sound negative, but there's little utility to coastal residents here; remember, people live in specific locations, not in a probability scheme.

 

[Randy Zipser]

Not to sound negative, but there's little utility to coastal residents here; remember, people live in specific locations, not in a probability scheme.

I beg to differ with you, William. Here is the latest (as of 08/06/2025) update from the late Dr. William Gray's group at Colorado State University:
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-08.pdf

CSU's reputation in the field of hurricane prediction is widely unquestioned. As you can see, their predictions are filled with probabilities associated with specific coastal locations!

The ABC News article is written for consumption by the general public. By comparison, CSU's article is much more detailed and useful to an audience like ST: in particular, please see Table 10 on page 48. When comparing the two, your statement rings a bit hollow, IMHO (not intended as a negative criticism, just a constructive observation for the purpose of further discussion)...

 

[William Monfredo]

I liked William Gray...when he was still alive; heard him speak, too.
My peers & I appreciated his academic exercises, but realized the personal impracticality of it all.
We questioned it and him. NOAA's the issue here now, and regrettably, they decided to get in on the act and do a poor imitation of him.
It holds no meaning for me; it's not news. 50 % chance of above in an ocean? Golly, a coin toss. Respectfully, that doesn't fly for me any time.

 

[Randy Zipser]

NOAA's the issue here now, and regrettably, they decided to get in on the act and do a poor imitation of him.

O.K., fair enough. I agree with you that NOAA will never do as thorough a job at tropical cyclone prediction as Dr. Gray's CSU group does. Especially nowadays in this DOGE era. But tropical cyclone prediction is not as much the focus for NOAA as tropical cyclone public warning is.

Dr. Gray became sort of a celebrity (and "face" of the CSU program) in the field of hurricane prediction, but the CSU hurricane-prediction group still continues his work and makes improvements in its annual modeling based upon analysis of previous-year data. NOAA, despite its flaws, is still better than nothing at all.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is a division of the NOAA/NWS co-located at the Florida International University in Miami, FL. It was called the Tropical Prediction Center between 1995 and 2010, after which it was renamed the NHC. Besides issuing regular tropical cyclone updates for the U.S. public for the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins, the NHC puts together detailed final reports of all major land-falling hurricanes that impact the CONUS. These reports certainly have value and meaning to many American citizens, particularly to those who were affected.

The bottom line is that NOAA (NHC) is far from "useless" in hurricane protection for U.S. citizens, despite some of its other shortcomings.

 

[William Monfredo]

Thanks for the PR about the NHC.
I am often appreciative of their work, even if the naming of storms sometimes appears capricious or occasionally self-serving.

Here's my short-term perspective. When was the last time you saw the entire world's tropics this dead on Labor Day weekend (CIMMS)?
Without getting too wordy, we can see the uptick after a week & a half or so, and I will be watching the Gulf.

To quote NOAA: Outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.

 

[Boris Konon]

As we saw last year, the climo heart of the NHEMI TC season is being taken out w/ unusually low activity. Yes, we know what happened later in Sep and in Oct in the Atlantic last year, but the pattern is much different than last year (we don’t have nearly the anomalous warm SSTs in the Atlantic, as one example).

The overall pattern in the MDR in the tropical Atlantic has been quite unfavorable this season thus far w/ lots of Saharan dust and dry air present. Now, TUTTs (tropical upper tropospheric troughs) reign supreme in the next week w/ the peak of the season climo in the next 10 days. See the ECMWF 250 mb forecast valid 00z Wed and 12z Sat this week I attached. I outlined the TUTTs, and these being present typically puts the brakes on TC development.

And outside the MDR in the Gulf and western Atlantic, it is no better. A persistent trough in the eastern U.S. has resulted in a jet/high shear across these areas, so no dice here either UFN.

The global models have suggested the wave coming off Africa currently may develop, and the 8/31 12z GFS and ECMWF showed a hurricane eventually recurving out to seas in the Atlantic, but the 9/1 00z ECMWF has backed off significantly, showing at best a weak TS through 10 days. The 00z GFS continues to show a hurricane, but the GFS has a serious bias in over-intensifying waves into hurricanes in the long range and spinning up TCs out of nowhere beyond a week. It has had this bias for years, so it should be discounted at this time. The fact that the ECMWF backed off, and the GDPS is similar to the ECMWF, seems to suggest they recognize the hostile conditions in the Atlantic currently and for the next week, so I would go w/ their idea concerning the handling of the wave off Africa now.

I attached the 2025 NHEMI TC stats through 8/31.

It should be noted that in the 5 years 2020-2024, 4 of those 5 have been significantly below avg for global ACE (less than 80% of avg) w/ only 2023 being a bit above at 109%. We are now heading for 5 of 6 years significant below avg. I would argue this is something that should not be ignored. What prevent TCs from developing/getting intense is just as important as to what promotes them! But the current prevailing mainstream narrative largely shuns this important aspect of TCs as to pertains to climate change.

Sure, the Atlantic has been very active in recent decades, but as I have mentioned before, there is world outside the Atlantic basin and the Atlantic only accounts for 15% of annual avg global ACE. Cherry-picking has been going on here using the Atlantic as "proof" of worse conditions. If one is to talk about climate, it needs to be looked at on a global scale, not only local areas that fit one's predilections.

The 2025 NHEMI season has been less than stellar so far. The Atlantic is the only one close to avg, all others are below. Yes, numbers of named storms in the NHEMI so far is a bit above avg (34 vs. an avg of 32), but the stats that count, such as hurricane days, major hurricane days, and ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) are significantly below avg. NHEMI ACE is only 56% of avg season-to-date. This one reason why merely forecasting number of named storms doesn’t cut it as to telling the complete story. All the named storms in the world mean little for ACE if they are largely short-lived and weak. ACE is the best metric since it weighs heavily toward intense TCs and how long they remain intense.