Updated Forecast for 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Randy Zipser]

ABC News posted this story on 08/07/2025 about an updated forecast for the remainder of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:

Above-normal activity predicted for remainder of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA says

 

[William Monfredo]

Not really a fan of lameness masquerading as a forecast. From the article, NOAA...
"There is now a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 15% chance of a below-normal season."
Gee, let me flip a coin...Once again, a somewhat misleading headline.
"...forecasting 13 to 18 total named..."
and NOAA applies the names...oh, that's cozy.
Not to sound negative, but there's little utility to coastal residents here; remember, people live in specific locations, not in a probability scheme.

 

[Randy Zipser]

Not to sound negative, but there's little utility to coastal residents here; remember, people live in specific locations, not in a probability scheme.

I beg to differ with you, William. Here is the latest (as of 08/06/2025) update from the late Dr. William Gray's group at Colorado State University:
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-08.pdf

CSU's reputation in the field of hurricane prediction is widely unquestioned. As you can see, their predictions are filled with probabilities associated with specific coastal locations!

The ABC News article is written for consumption by the general public. By comparison, CSU's article is much more detailed and useful to an audience like ST: in particular, please see Table 10 on page 48. When comparing the two, your statement rings a bit hollow, IMHO (not intended as a negative criticism, just a constructive observation for the purpose of further discussion)...

 

[William Monfredo]

I liked William Gray...when he was still alive; heard him speak, too.
My peers & I appreciated his academic exercises, but realized the personal impracticality of it all.
We questioned it and him. NOAA's the issue here now, and regrettably, they decided to get in on the act and do a poor imitation of him.
It holds no meaning for me; it's not news. 50 % chance of above in an ocean? Golly, a coin toss. Respectfully, that doesn't fly for me any time.

 

[Randy Zipser]

NOAA's the issue here now, and regrettably, they decided to get in on the act and do a poor imitation of him.

O.K., fair enough. I agree with you that NOAA will never do as thorough a job at tropical cyclone prediction as Dr. Gray's CSU group does. Especially nowadays in this DOGE era. But tropical cyclone prediction is not as much the focus for NOAA as tropical cyclone public warning is.

Dr. Gray became sort of a celebrity (and "face" of the CSU program) in the field of hurricane prediction, but the CSU hurricane-prediction group still continues his work and makes improvements in its annual modeling based upon analysis of previous-year data. NOAA, despite its flaws, is still better than nothing at all.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is a division of the NOAA/NWS co-located at the Florida International University in Miami, FL. It was called the Tropical Prediction Center between 1995 and 2010, after which it was renamed the NHC. Besides issuing regular tropical cyclone updates for the U.S. public for the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins, the NHC puts together detailed final reports of all major land-falling hurricanes that impact the CONUS. These reports certainly have value and meaning to many American citizens, particularly to those who were affected.

The bottom line is that NOAA (NHC) is far from "useless" in hurricane protection for U.S. citizens, despite some of its other shortcomings.

 

[William Monfredo]

Thanks for the PR about the NHC.
I am often appreciative of their work, even if the naming of storms sometimes appears capricious or occasionally self-serving.

Here's my short-term perspective. When was the last time you saw the entire world's tropics this dead on Labor Day weekend (CIMMS)?
Without getting too wordy, we can see the uptick after a week & a half or so, and I will be watching the Gulf.

To quote NOAA: Outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.