Typhoon Mitag (Philippines)

[Stuart Robinson]

Typhoon Mitag (Philippines)

Typhoon Mitag is currently a CAT2 storm heading directly towards the Philippines main Island.

However GFS indicates that this storm will reach CAT4 strength before landfall on Sunday. Right now I do not question the intensity forecast as environmental conditions seem to be almost ideal – (this is not in a sheared environment) and SST are 29c or above along the projected track.

Landfall, I predict will be CAT3 due to interaction with landmasses etc

Ether way I am regarding this as a “Chaseableâ€￾ storm and so I plan to intercept this one (along with Roger Hill) using the same approach that we used for Typhoon Krosa during October in Taiwan.

This will be an interesting intercept in so far as the time scales are so short (given the distance) and that I HAVE to be back in London by Tuesday therefore I need to make London to London in 80 hours (with a typhoon in between).

I plan on travelling real light (most of my USA hurricane comms equipment) wont work over there anyway.

I do have to talk with my boss in the morning – but once I clear this I will bust for the airport and hook up with roger in Manila late Saturday afternoon.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I have blown off this intercept - the lack of roads means that it will be too tough!.

Anyway 1,000,000 people are now on the move.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/impacts/200711/18367206.html

World weather impacts
Mitag evacuation operation extended
23 Nov 2007
The government in the Philippines has widened its evacuation operation ahead of the arrival of Typhoon Mitag.
AFP reported on November 23rd that Mitag, which has sustained winds of 108 miles per hour, will hit either the Bicol region or Quezon province the following day.
However, a civil defence spokesman predicted the typhoon's rain path would cover three-quarters of the country and warned that those not directly hit by the typhoon are likely to experience heavy rain.
The government's initial plan to evacuate around 200,000 people from coastal areas has been extended to include around one million people because of uncertainty about where exactly Mitag will strike and concerns about its extent.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm

Having lived in the Philippines for three years, I can say the northeast portion of the main island is VERY rough chase country. I don't even think the coastline is accessible by car.

Map:
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=...22.448807&spn=0.248475,0.362549&t=k&z=12&om=1

Tim

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Having lived in the Philippines for three years, I can say the northeast portion of the main island is VERY rough chase country. I don't even think the coastline is accessible by car.

It's also probably not the safest place in the world, security wise, though likely during a hurricane getting kidnapped by rebels is one of the lesser of your worries. At least the hurricane isn't landing in the south of the country.

You should sign up at Lightstalkers if you aren't already a member there and ask the forum for some info/advice on the area. They can probably hook you up with the number of a photojournalist or reporter in the area, who might be able to help.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

From what I recall most of the rebel activity is down in the southern part of the Philippines where a Muslim faction has been trying for decades to get concessions from Manila. There's only been a little bit of serious insurgency on Luzon and that was mostly associated with the U.S. base presence in the late 1980s. The typhoon area I believe is rather safe.

Tim

 

[Stuart Robinson]

After coming so close to going after this one – have spent a long time looking at the road options and the terrain of the Eastern Philippines – Tim is right what a road hole!!

There are a number of coastal communities that generally are placed along a single road that follows a river valley inland from the mountains. I was reading the AP news feeds today and it seems that both the police and military are now forcibly removing people from low lying areas as well as the river valley communities along the Eastern coast.

Yeek!! – this makes the attitude of Gulf Coast Sheriff minnow’s in comparison.

(Disclaimer – many Gulf coast Sheriffs that I have actually met have been descent and chaser friendly people)

Given the lack of roads, the risk of being stuck at the end of a long road with no other route available, plus the “hostile” removal threat from the authorities I would now go as far to say that the Eastern Philippines is un-chaseable as far as a valid Typhoon intercepts goes (A total contrast to Taiwan).

 

[MatthewCarman]

Is Roger Hill still going to try and intercept this storm Stuart?

 

[Stuart Robinson]

No We blew it off - Roger is still in Denver.