Typhoon Krasa Intercept.

Good luck Stuart, but above all be careful.

Hopefully It'll b e a little better for you than when we were in Ivan in here in Mobile.

I haven't had anything all that great since Except when me and Doug got Dennis. Maybe I'll see you along the Gulf coast next week!
 
Stuart Robinson said:
Doug if I bust I bust - simple as that but I have had my fill of sitting at home in the UK looking at this years Atlantic storms fizz out (remember that I did not chase any tropical system at all in 2006) so the 2006 funds are beining "invested" on this one - it will be all or nothing IMO.

Still leave the 2007 fund intact :) - lets hope for next week in the GOM.
Click to expand...

Well at least if it's a bust, you can still have fun and if it hits the northern part of the island, they have their act together over there so you won't be living in a third world country after a major hit.

But If Roger is over there, you just jinxed the weekend tornado forecast from being lame, into being the next biggest thing here since May 4th.
 
The JTWC's 03Z package puts Krosa's current intensity at 130 kt (high-end Cat 4) and brings it ashore in N Taiwan at 110 kt (high-end Cat 3) around 12Z 06 Oct.

Interestingly, the JMA puts the current intensity at 925 mb/105 kt (10-min). I think that's the highest wind estimate I've seen from the JMA. Like the JTWC, they weaken the cyclone a bit before the Taiwan landfall.

The signals from both agencies are that this will be some decent chase material.
 
I am already in Taipei and I a SHOCKED by the lack or preparation here - we are at the Holiday Inn East, Taipei and I can tell you that as of 20:00 local NOTHING has been done to prepare - I mean if this was a CAT 4 on the GOM whole city's would have been empted by now - *if* this storm can make land fall here (70/30 against now due to nor than track) I really do fear for the loss of life that will occur - what is up with these people?

I am having a few FTP issues with the live reporting weather station - I have my Engineer dealing with this in the UK right now...
 
Wow, JTWC have this with gusts to 160 knots!!

.
(1) AT 050000Z, SUPER TYPHOON 17W (KROSA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.4N 125.2E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NAHA OKINAWA,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
130 KNOTS GUSTING TO 160 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 050300)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
Click to expand...

Good luck Stu!

I notice Geoff Mackley is hot on it's tail too...
www.rambocam.com
 
Looking at the latest satellite imagery typhoon Krosa has taken a determined northward turn during the past eight hours now and it appears now will miss Taiwan by a wide margin. Also there is some dry air starting to be drawn in on its NW side. Im really glad I didn't go for this one...
 
Wow, Stuart-- I'm sorry to see this. That must be a bit frustrating.

Believe it or not, I toyed with the idea of going after this one two days ago-- and one of the things that held me back (besides the expense, time, distance, and language barrier!) was the uncertainty Re: a Taiwan landfall. Chasing from islands and the tips of peninsulas is just so dicey.
 
Well, if I lived there, I would be breathing with relief right now that the worst wouldn't come. We've got to remember that tropical cyclones can bring a lot of damage and they can kill people. My point of view on tropical cyclones drastically changed after Hurricane Katrina and in some ways, I am indeed actually breathing with relief that Taiwan will not get the worst. However, I would not mind the storm knocking digital television transmitters off air :-)

2007 season is disappointment for me too. Not a single ex-tropical cyclone this year has hit me. Only chance was ex-Chantal and that got blocked by a high pressure area. :-(
 
Stuart Robinson said:
Certinaly looks like a miss for the Island right now :) Oh well I would rather be here in a miss than at home for a hit

Dang - all this way as well ...
Click to expand...
Stu.
You may get some good shots afterall. The typhoon has begun a NW track over the past couple of hours, also the outflow on the westside of the storm has expanded some which should mean a more NW track for awhile so you may get real close to the eyewall when its all said and done. These slow and erratic storms are a real pain especially when your on an island.
 
03:00am here in TW - looks like we are going to miss the eye now due to the more north track - plan is at day brake (06:00am here) is to head to the far North East tip of TW and find some shelter there to ride out the storm - I do exept some very high wind speeds there.
As for Taipie - the out rains bands are already brining some gusty squals - I have a real issue with the internet here - is is VERY up and down - The Davis weather station is not yet deployed as were need to move to our final loction - I and just recording pressure right now wich is currently 994.8mb falling at 1.3mb / hour.

More later *if* I can get internet.
 
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