Typhoon Krasa Intercept.

[Stuart Robinson]

A little off topic because this is not the USA..

A Strong CAT 4 near to the top of Taiwan Saturday night … Imm yes I will bite!

I am flying out of London tomorrow on route to Taipei in north Taiwan – Latest model forecast suggest that this will be a good bet.
I have some logistical hurdles to overcome – no internet! The language and as ever I land with no previsions. This will test all my years of tropical chasing to the max.

Given that I can find an internet connection (Taipei is a city with 1.2 million people) I will post regular updates here – however results from my weather station which I will deploy will also be available here.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/hurricane/

If things pan out I could well end up back in the Gulf and chase the system there – this will mean that I end up having travelled the entre globe before I get back to the UK!!

More soon.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Sounds cool, Stuart!

I checked the JTWC site and I see the forecast for 125 kt. Do you also refer to the JMA site? I assume you do, but in case you don't: the JMA is a good additional resource-- a second opinion. Actually, many consider the JMA more accurate than the JTWC for this region. They use a 10-min averaging period for sustained wind (not 1-min, like we do in the USA), and also they're more conservative in general Re: intensity, so their wind estimates are always lower than the JTWC's.

One thing: the JMA's current forecast track suggests that the inner core may miss the N tip of Taiwan-- which I imagine would be a bit of a bummer for you if you schlepp all the way there. Chasing on Taiwan I imagine is like chasing in Bermuda, Jamaica, or on the N tip of the Yucatan-- if the storm starts to veer away, there's little you can do get closer.

Either way, it sounds very exciting! Good luck with it!

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I do know the JTWC site - a VERY good resource. Actually we use 10 min wind gusts here in the UK ...

Our plan is to get to Taipei and if require we have time to hop over to one of the Islands ... Looking at current Sat images this ?Storm looks impressive and has a good eye.

I guess that this chase is high risk / High gain and we could well bust - ether way this si the 2006 Tropical chase budget that I am blowing so it still leave some money for the next week or so in the GOM.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I do know the JTWC site - a VERY good resource. Actually we use 10 min wind gusts here in the UK ...

Yeah, I think actually most of the world uses a 10-min averaging period for a sustained wind-- and that the USA's 1-min is actually less common.

Out of curiosity, what is your main resource for this region-- the JMA or JTWC or some other agency?

Our plan is to get to Taipei and if require we have time to hop over to one of the Islands ... Looking at current Sat images this ?Storm looks impressive and has a good eye.

That's great that you have a contingency plan if it looks like the inner core will miss the main island. It does present well on satellite-- a quality cyclone. I'll be ecstatic if we have something that good in the Gulf next week.

I guess that this chase is high risk / High gain and we could well bust - ether way this si the 2006 Tropical chase budget that I am blowing so it still leave some money for the next week or so in the GOM.

Yeah, the lack of 2006 action built up my chase budget as well. I entered this season ready to chase anything!

 

[cdcollura]

Hey guys,

Any bet out there should be good, especially from England.

Dont even waste your time trying to chase the garbage out here in our neck of the woods (aka - the W Hemisphere) ;-(

If I had the time and money, an Asian intercept would be awesome myself - And yes, I would do it, someday ... Hats off to you - and good luck!

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Now a Cat 4 according to JTWC, forecasting a Cat 5 super typhoon:

WTPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (KROSA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 128.8E

 

[Josh Morgerman]

While the JTWC's track still suggests a miss, I notice that the latest JMA forecast track seems to have shifted a tad S and suggests a direct hit on the N part of Taiwan. You could get some serious action out of this!

The JMA maxes it out at 935 mb/90 kt (10-min), followed by slow weakening. (That might not sound impressive, but for the JMA, 90 kt is a pretty-high intensity estimate. I think the highest I've ever seen from them is ~100 kt.)

 

[Jim Leonard]

Looking at the latest satellite this typhoon has a well developed inner core of extremely cold cloud tops on inferred. I would not be surprised to see this typhoon to rapidly intensify to at least 180mph which is not unusual for the westpacific basin. For one reason is the exceptional outflow in all directions and the very central CDO. Before it reaches Taiwan this storm will probably go through a couple of eyewall cycles so it would be difficult to estimate the intensity when it reaches its closest approach.

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

I have not been paying much attention to this lackluster hurricane season but I heard a bunch of chasers are heading there. Just looking at the models on Weather Underground and on the Navy JTWC site and yikes, I hope your not flying around the world for an off shore bust. It looks as if it is going more to the north now.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Doug if I bust I bust - simple as that but I have had my fill of sitting at home in the UK looking at this years Atlantic storms fizz out (remember that I did not chase any tropical system at all in 2006) so the 2006 funds are beining "invested" on this one - it will be all or nothing IMO.

Still leave the 2007 fund intact - lets hope for next week in the GOM.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Whoops forget to add that Roger Hill will also be chasing with me on this venture.

 

[Jim Leonard]

Hey, Stu. You should to get in contact with James Reynolds, aka typhoon hunter, Im sure he will be going to Taiwan to intercept this typhoon. ([email protected]

 

[mrobinett]

Whoops forget to add that Roger Hill will also be chasing with me on this venture.

Should still be able to hear him from here!!
Just kidding, good luck!!!

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I see the 00Z forecast package from the JTWC has nudged the track a bit S, and now shows a landfall in N Taiwan around 00Z 07 Oct with an intensity of 115 kt (Cat 4). This could be a sweet chase for you, Stuart.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

This nice setup is almost giving me some adventurous ideas...