Two Areas In Atlantic (94L & 96L)

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

NHC currently monitoring two areas with "high potential" for tropical cyclone formation...

94L - In the central Caribbean 400 NM SE of Jamaica. A USAF plane is currently checking out this area now, and a tropical depression can already be forming there.

96L - Closer to home, but close to the GA / SC coastline. The area has become better organized, and another tropical depression can be in the works there as well. This system has impressive thunderstorms developing around a weak low-level center.

 

[Martin North]

94L Invest has been playing a guessing game with us since the Mid Atlantic high seas. Sporadic organisation and flaring of convection (against unfavourable conditions) the last two or three days...would suggest that this should become a Tropical Cyclone as conditions favourable for development improve over the next two days or so. Models are still very 'iffy' about it though.

Waiting for the next GFDL run. GFDL was bang on with TS Bertha the last few days...and would appear to be the 'in form' model atm.

 

[Martin North]

On saying that recon could find no LLCC...

Btw...96L looked more interesting with every passing hour.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

Advisories are going to be initiated at 11 on 96L according to the latest TWO.. The low seems to be organizing rather quickly per KCLX 88D with convection beginning to wrap around the center.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

94L- Models have a Major Hurricane in the GOM

THE 0Z models are trying to develop a Major Hurricane by Wednesday in GOM. The GFDL has it heading for Houston.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071900-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


The HWFR has it heading for Brownsville TX.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008071900-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

 

[Martin North]

GFDL is all over the place with this. Latest run downgrades it to Cat 2 (elements of).

94L has a boat load of convection but seems to be lacking a closed circulation. Latest vis...and I cannot detect any sign of this. Needs recon...badly...

If we get the LLCC...everyone needs to be looking at this in a whole new light I think.

 

[Martin North]

Recons out there now. If they find an LLCC it will likely be named and advisories be issued.

 

[Martin North]

TD 3 is upgraded to Tropical Storm Crystobal. Headed for Cape Hatteras.

I think Mark Sudduth is setting up a 10 metre wind tower & camera on Hatteras Island.

Should be interesting...

 

[Martin North]

Hello mods...

I think this needs to be broken up into two threads. 96L is now Tropical Storm Crystobal and 94L is going to be Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Dolly....

Thanks.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Hello mods...

I think this needs to be broken up into two threads. 96L is now Tropical Storm Crystobal and 94L is going to be Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Dolly....

Thanks.

There's an existing thread for former-TD3 / now-TS-Cristobal, and we can start a new thread for 94L should it develop into a TD.

 

[Martin North]

Ta Jeff. Missed that one.