Yabba Dabba Doo! ....Wilma on the way

[Sam Sagnella]

The area of convection (and assocated surface low) located very near the island of Jamaica has become much better organized over the past 24hr.

Wind shear is currently VERY light and will likely continue to be for the next few days. Furthermore, the TCHP and SSTs remain favorable for significant tropical cyclone development, as the waters haven't been touched in months. The estimated minimum potential pressure and maximum potential intensity both support the possibility of an intense cyclone in the region. Upper level divergence has continued to improve and the ventillation could be aided be the large non-tropical low in the western north Atlantic.

The 14/18z GFDL has a 910mb, 144kt hurricane located at roughly 16N, 83.5W at 114hr, and the 15/00z SHIPS brings 98L to hurricane strength by 72hr. The 15/00z MM5-AF, 14/12z NOGAPS, 14/12z UKMET and 14/12z CMC are also all in agreement that a tropical low will be meandering around the wrn Caribbean for days to come.

Originally posted by NHC
0005z Discussion: THE LOW HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER MOVES AND REMAINS OVER WATER...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST.

0230z TWO: AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY... IF NECESSARY.

I don't mean to be pessimistic, but this is a fairly similar setup to the Mitch catastrophe and with the latest GFDL's projections of a 145kt hurricane in the vicinity of Honduras, I can't help but to say "oh boy."

The 2005 Hurricane Season lives on -- incredible, ain't it?

 

[Glenn Rivers]

Wilma on the way ?

There sure is lots of ultra-mega-super cold cloud topped convection around Jamaca tonight. This situation looks to me like it could be a disaster worse than Mitch in 98. The ground over much of Central America is already very wet. I'm inclined to believe that the only hope to avert a major catastrophe is the chance that an upper trough can pull this system N and NE out of the Carribean and out into the Atlantic.

I have a gut feeling of forboding about this whole situation. Even the NAM, not known for developing tropical systems like the GFS, shows a prononced warm core cyclone by the end of its run tonight.....yes, the NAM. That can't be a good sign.

 

[HAltschule]

A strong cold front is forecast to sag south all the way to Jamaica by tomorrow. Upper level winds turn to the north in the area of concern. So, it appears that there will be quite a bit of shear going on and not your typical parms. for development. We'll have to wait and see if there will be any affects on development.

 

[Jim Tang]

Re: Wilma on the way ?

Originally posted by Glenn Rivers
I have a gut feeling of forboding about this whole situation. Even the NAM, not known for developing tropical systems like the GFS, shows a prononced warm core cyclone by the end of its run tonight.....yes, the NAM. That can't be a good sign.

The NAM is pretty much a useless model over the tropics.

On the other hand, the GFDL is a relatively accurate model, and though it can be a bit bullish on intensity, FWIW, the latest run has Wilma in the western Caribbean in a few days as a 898 mb Category 5 approaching the western tip of Cuba.

The GFDL correctly forecasted the rapid intensification of both Katrina and Rita. This definately has the potential to be a big storm. I have no reason to believe that Wilma/98L will not develop, the outflow pattern is similar to Mitch in 1998 and a large upper-level anticyclone is parked right on top of it.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Re: Wilma on the way ?

Originally posted by Jim Tang

The GFDL correctly forecasted the rapid intensification of both Katrina and Rita. This definately has the potential to be a big storm. I have no reason to believe that Wilma/98L will not develop, the outflow pattern is similar to Mitch in 1998 and a large upper-level anticyclone is parked right on top of it.

For those who don't have the link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi...&hour=Animation

Recon is in the area now, but hasn't sent a VORTEX message yet. I'm always weary of model forecasts when the system is in a very early stages of tropical organization. We've seen this before -- a system that is borderline TD, models forecasting deep intensification, but the system falling apart or being much weaker due to unforecast shear, less organized inner circulation, etc. In this case, I do think we'll see Wilma, but the models have been falsely forecasting the development of a cyclone between Jamaica northeastward to northeast of Puerto Rico for the past week nearly.

 

[Greg Campbell]

Great link Jeff!

Thanks!