TS 06L ( Tropical Storm Fay)

Joshua T. Clark

Joshua T. Clark

EF2
Joined
Aug 15, 2005
Messages
115
Location
Norman, OK
Fellas,

NHC has just upgraded Invest 92L to the sixth named storm of the season. A recent weather recon flight confirmed that the circulation has become better organized and observed FL015 winds at 49kts. Attached is the official forecast graphic, a tropical cylcone decision aid graphic from Col St, and an enhanced infrared image from WeatherTap.
203113W_sm.gif



track_early1.png
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Don't watch too close... A LOT of things have to work out JUST right for Tampa to be threatened - and even then, it's 3-4 days away. So not much will change hour-by-hour that helps in the medium range forecasting.
 
Well, this is starting to get interesting. This could turn out to be a very chaseable storm.

Things I like:

-The long term track, obviously.

-The GFDL/HWRF intensities

-The outflow and deep convection currently occuring and occuring all day today despite being over/near land.

-Long term upper level flow to the north and east of the expected track.

Things I dont like:

-Land interaction, Hispaniola and then Cuba. Especially Cuba, I think, is being underestimated by the nested hurricane models.

-Long term upper level flow west of the storm.




The 00z GFS is coming in. Through hour 66 it seems to have nudged left slightly and is crossing west/central Cuba, and is very near the 18z HWRF/GFDL
 
I think the track will be moved slightly to the west. I'm set for arriving in Tampa, just in case it pulls a hard right turn like Charlie did. As others have noted, I don't think the surface structure is set enough right now for the land mass to kill it, although a prolonged period over land might if it rides e/w over Cuba. As noted before, the outflow is intense and I suspect rapid intensification, as noted by some of the models that take it up to Cat 2-3 with an outsider (HWFI) taking it to almost Cat-4. I guess the worse case scenario is a Cat 4 riding up the entire west Florida coast.

Warren
 
Von Castor said:
Is anyone else having problems getting Sat. data from the floater on Fay?
Click to expand...

There is no satellite called a floater... Some websites zoom in on a particular area, but it's not offering anything special you can't get anywhere else.

Can someone add in the username/password to the image that is linked?
 
Sorry, I didn't specify. I'm can't get the loop on NOAA GOES floater #1 which is on Fay at this time. I can get the still image just cant get the loop to work.
 
Models have now again trended to take the path East - this now puts Fay over the large landmass of Cuba and then much of Florida. Needless to say this will hamper development of Fay - right now I am holding off booking any flights for this one...
 
TS 06L (Fay)

Good Morning,

Fay is currently located 95 miles WNW of Port Au Prince, Haiti and is currently moving W'ly at 13 kts. It is anticipated that Fay will begin to move more N'ly later today as a mid to upper level trough begins to weaken the mid level steering ridge. The usual questions on track and intensity prevail for this storm. Track has storm moving over land albiet Fay has maintained a decent structure during its transit over Hispanola. Just how disrupted the LLCC is the question. The environment remains very conducive for continuing development. Included is the current official forecast graphic from NHC, objective aids from Col. St., and current imagery.


143514W_sm.gif


track_early1.png


vis-l.jpg
 
Can the moderators please remove the image that requires a password to view. When I visit this thread the login/password screen appears. Very annoying.
 
My 2 cents worth, but I am betting the track and intensity will be heavily based on how much mountainous and "land thickness" Fay will go over between now (Sat. 17:00z) and Sun 23:00z. Thinking the models might converge more then.
 
Is it just me, or does the latest IR image appear to place the center of Fay somewhat (a good clip) to the west of the 1200 UTC model consensus? This would be bad news for the Gulf Coast regions west of Florida if Cuba does not really disrupt the storm.

Warren
 
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